Drought, dry spell likely to hit 85 provinces until March 2027 amid El Niño — PAGASA

Up to 85 provinces across the country are expected to be affected by dry conditions, dry spell, and drought until the end of March 2027 amid the worsening effects of the El Niño phenomenon, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Wednesday.

During its 200th climate forum, PAGASA said that a strong El Niño is already present in the tropical Pacific and is likely to intensify into a very strong state by the end of 2026.

The phenomenon, which is characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and can cause below-normal rainfall and drier conditions in the country, will persist until the first quarter of 2027.

“This situation needs to be taken seriously, particularly because of its potential impacts on rainfall and water resources,” PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel T. Servando said during the climate forum.

As of Sept. 21, 45 provinces across the country have already been affected by dry conditions, dry spell, and drought amid El Niño.

Most of the affected provinces were in the Visayas at 26, while 11 provinces were recorded in Luzon and eight in Mindanao.

PAGASA defines a dry condition as an area that has experienced or is expected to experience two consecutive months of below-normal rainfall, or up to a 60% reduction from average rainfall.

It is called a dry spell if rainfall has been below normal for three consecutive months, and drought if rainfall is way below the normal average, or there is more than a 60% reduction from average rainfall.

Ana Liza S. Solis, chief of PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, said that up to 85 provinces in total are likely to be impacted by these conditions from late October to the end of March 2027.

Here are the detailed areas that will be affected by dry conditions, dry spell, and drought during the said period:

End of October 2026: 28 provinces under dry conditions, 9 provinces affected by dry spell, and 8 provinces affected by drought — 45 provinces in total.

End of November 2026: 7 provinces under dry conditions, 35 provinces affected by dry spell, and 8 provinces affected by drought — 50 provinces in total.

End of December 2026: 16 provinces under dry conditions, 31 provinces affected by dry spell, and 19 provinces affected by drought — 66 provinces in total.

End of January 2027: 5 provinces under dry conditions, 37 provinces affected by dry spell, and 43 provinces affected by drought — 85 provinces in total.

End of February 2027: No provinces under dry conditions, 35 provinces affected by dry spell, and 50 provinces affected by drought — 85 provinces in total.

End of March 2027: No provinces under dry conditions, 5 provinces affected by dry spell, and 79 provinces affected by drought — 84 provinces in total.

Mr. Servando said DoST Secretary Renato U. Solidum Jr. is urging local government units (LGUs) and key sectors to take action to prepare for the strong impacts of El Niño.

“LGUs and key sectors are being urged to take proactive and data-driven action before we even feel the strong impacts of a strong El Niño,” Mr. Servando said. — Edg Adrian A. Eva