Two TCLVs may develop in two weeks, one may enter PAR – PAGASA

Two tropical cyclone-like vortices (TCLVs) are forecast to develop over the next two weeks, one of which may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Tuesday.

From Oct. 12 to 18, the first TCLV is likely to develop near the eastern boundary of PAGASA Monitoring Domain, the bureau said in its latest tropical cyclone threat potential forecast.

It also said the weather disturbance has a chance of developing into a tropical cyclone.

For the following week, covering Oct. 19 to 25, a second TCLV may develop near the eastern boundaries of the Tropical Cyclone Advisory Domain and the Tropical Cyclone Information Domain. However, it has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone.

“Therefore, the TC-Threat is highly likely during the forecast period,” PAGASA said, referring to the potential for tropical cyclone development over the next two weeks.

Meanwhile, PAGASA continues to monitor a tropical depression outside PAR, while two weather systems are bringing rains to large parts of the country, the bureau said in its 4:00 a.m. weather forecast.

The tropical depression was last located 2,790 kilometers east of Northern Luzon, with maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour (kph) and gusts of up to 70 kph.

The weather disturbance is not expected to enter PAR and is not currently affecting the country, PAGASA said.

Easterlies are expected to bring scattered rains and thunderstorms over the Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Eastern Visayas, Aurora, Quezon, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Marinduque, and Romblon.

Similar weather conditions are expected over Metro Manila, the Ilocos Region, the Cordillera Administrative Region, the rest of Cagayan Valley, the rest of Central Luzon, and the rest of CALABARZON.

PAGASA warned of possible flooding and landslides in areas affected by the easterlies.

Rain is also expected over Batanes and the Babuyan Islands due to the northeasterly windflow, although no significant impacts are expected. — Edg Adrian A. Eva