‘Super El Niño’ raises risks for PHL

By Justine Irish D. Tabile, Senior Reporter

THE Philippines faces heightened economic risks from a potentially severe El Niño as a prolonged drought threatens agricultural production, food security, as well as water and energy supplies at a time when the government and households are still grappling with other external pressures.

Shombi Sharp, deputy executive secretary at the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), said the Philippines is considered an El Niño hotspot, making it particularly vulnerable to prolonged dry conditions and drought.

“The history, unfortunately, demonstrates that the Philippines does face extremely high risk and vulnerability,” Mr. Sharp told BusinessWorld in an interview.

The strong El Niño episode in 2023-2024 inflicted P57.78 billion in agricultural losses, according to the Department of Agriculture.

Mr. Sharp said the current El Niño could become among the strongest on record and potentially persist into 2027, citing forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

“This is very, very concerning,” Mr. Sharp said. “I think it’s quite rare that we’ve had the data, the science looking so certain that an El Niño event would be extremely strong, potentially among the strongest on record, if not the strongest.”

The WMO said its forecasts indicate a near 100% likelihood that El Niño, a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, would persist through February 2027.

A very strong El Niño can significantly affect rainfall and temperature patterns around the world, as well as drive extreme weather, such as typhoons and droughts.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) earlier this month said the “Super El Niño” phenomenon is likely to persist until the first half of 2027 and projected to cause drought conditions in Camarines Sur and dry conditions and dry spells in 61 provinces.

Mr. Sharp said the impact on Philippine growth is difficult to quantify because it will depend on the severity and duration of El Niño and how early the government, businesses and communities respond.

He said El Niño could add to pressures already coming from geopolitical conflicts and supply chain disruptions.

“Conflict in the Middle East has disrupted supply chains. In the Philippines, for example, the economy relies a lot on remittances coming from overseas workers,” he said.

“The Gulf countries, which are an important source of remittances, have been negatively impacted by recent conflicts,” he added.

The Philippines could also be more exposed because of its reliance on food imports, particularly if drought reduces domestic production.

“Anything that puts pressure on domestic production obviously is going to create a situation where there are overlapping pressures and fiscal tightness,” Mr. Sharp said.

He said the government could limit the damage by acting early on weather forecasts, especially in agriculture, social protection, and water and energy management.

For agriculture, authorities and farmers could adjust planting calendars, expand the use of drought-resistant crops, and improve efficiency in the use of water and energy.

“So, basically food, water, energy. That’s going to be a big one,” he said.

The government should also strengthen social protection and safety nets for households most vulnerable to drought, including nutrition support and school feeding programs, Mr. Sharp said.

He noted that households already facing poverty and food insecurity would be among those most vulnerable to drought.

Mr. Sharp also called for more investment in climate adaptation, including disaster-resilient infrastructure, nature-based solutions, and climate-smart technologies.

“Investing in adaptation, let’s say resilience to climate, has to be a top priority for all the countries… especially this region and Southeast Asia,” he said.

Mr. Sharp said every dollar spent on preparedness and resilience could generate about $15 in broader economic returns, while investments in early-warning systems can significantly reduce both financial losses and loss of life.

Still, he said the Philippines is better prepared for El Niño than in the past, citing improvements in weather monitoring, forecasting and early-warning systems.

“The Philippines is… one of the first countries in the region to conceptualize and put into place these anticipatory initiatives,” he said.

He described the Philippines as a regional leader in some areas of climate data, forecasting and early warning, but said further investments are still needed.

ESCAP has also been working with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) on drought preparedness.

Together with the ASEAN Secretariat, it developed the Ready for the Dry Years report, which examines the impact of prolonged droughts in Southeast Asia and measures that governments can take to build buffers against them.