Sacramento Report: Countdown to California’s Redistricting Election

California’s redistricting measure will go to a special election in less than eight weeks, in a political arms race with Texas over which party controls Congress. 

On Nov. 4, California voters will decide whether to redraw political boundaries to create more Democratic seats. The ballot measure aims to counter an effort by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and President Donald Trump to add an equal number of Republican seats in that state. 

Rep. Darrell Issa’s seat in San Diego’s 48th District is one of the districts that could turn blue if the measure passes. Under the new maps it would shift north to include the heavily Democratic and politically active city of Palm Springs, along with parts of North and East County San Diego. 

There are already nine challengers lined up against him, including San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert and former congressional candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar. 

Politico hosted a forum Thursday to discuss the state of play for California’s redistricting measure, so here are some of the highlights, plus feedback from local players. 

Who’s in the fight? 

Gov. Gavin Newsom is spearheading California’s redistricting campaign, and he could be the biggest winner, Politico California reporter Jeremy White said, noting that it gives Newsom an ideal platform to take the fight to Trump. 

“It’s hard to conjure up a better springboard to White House,” he said. 

That’s exactly the talking point Republicans are using against the measure. 

“Gavin Newsom’s blind chase for the presidency just killed democracy in California,” state Senate Minority Leader Brian Jones said on X. “At his demand, Democrat politicians rigged the election to cheat for more seats.” 

The California Federation of Labor Unions, SEIU and Planned Parenthood support the new voting maps. The California Faculty Association promoted a stark message: “Fight fascism. Vote yes on Prop. 50. Defend California.” 

There are two main committees to oppose the redistricting measure, Politico reporters said. Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is leading one opposing group, called Stop Sacramento’s Power Grab, while GOP megadonor Charles Munger Jr. formed another anti-redistricting campaign, Protect Voters First, which argues: “We cannot save democracy  

by burning it down in California.” 

What’s their Pitch to Voters? 

California Republicans have to strike a delicate balance. They can’t make it too partisan, or they could undermine their own cause. 

About 45 percent of registered voters in California are Democrats, while 25 percent are Republicans. Another 22 percent don’t align with either party, while 7 percent are registered with third parties. Making the message about MAGA could inadvertently boost support for redistricting. 

“If you’re going to play the partisan game, California is a very Democratic state,” White, the Politico reporter, said. “The message you’re going to see from the ‘no’ side is less partisan and more ‘don’t let politicians take your power away.’” 

That’s where Democrats have their work cut out. They have to present the redistricting measure as a way for Californians to retain control over their own state by temporarily suspending the rules. 

“This doesn’t even have to be partisan,” San Diego County Democratic Party Chair Will Rodriguez-Kennedy told me. “The reality is that Texas is trying to rig the election. California does not want to let Texas tell us what to do. This is a home team versus away team situation.”  

Special elections like the one coming up typically yield low voter turnout. So each party will have to get their own base to the polls and sway undecided voters to their side.  

Democrats plan to mobilize 1,000 volunteers to do door-to-door canvassing, phone-banking and text-banking in favor of Proposition 50, Rodriguez-Kennedy told me. They’ll argue that a vote for redistricting puts the brakes on unpopular Trump initiatives ranging from price-hiking tariffs to aggressive ICE raids. 

I also contacted the Republican Party of San Diego County to find out about their game plan, but they didn’t get back to me. 

Who’s on the Sidelines? 

Common Cause and the League of Women Voters, two prominent voting rights groups, initially balked at the California redistricting effort, warning it would upend the state’s nonpartisan system for drawing voting lines. 

Both have walked that back and taken neutral positions on the measure, arguing that the alternative is to let Trump and Texas call the shots.  

“Common Cause has taken a hard look at what we’re up against – a president and party who want to end free and fair elections to preserve their grip on power, including by ordering Texas Republicans to draw up five new GOP districts,” the organization stated. “As a result, California Common Cause will not support or oppose drawing new voting maps for our state as a counterbalance.” 

Another wild card is former Republican California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. He’s not a Trump supporter, but he championed California’s independent redistricting system and is loath to abandon it. Whether or not he jumps into the fray could be key to the redistricting fight. 

Last Chance for Legislation 

Today is the last day for the state Senate and Assembly to pass bills, before they head to the governor for consideration. Here’s some bills we’ve been watching that made the cut, and one that went on the back burner. 

State Sen. Catherine Blakespear’s bill to close a loophole in housing law passed the Assembly last week. It prevents the density bonus law from being used to build large commercial projects that far exceed local zoning law and city ordinances. The density bonus law lets developers build bigger projects if they include affordable housing, but Blakespear said developers used it to build a luxury hotel in Pacific Beach with few affordable units. 

State Sen. Brian Jones has been trying for years to put guardrails around the release of sexually violent predators in neighborhoods. There are seven such offenders placed in San Diego backcountry neighborhoods now, with four more awaiting placement. Jones’ bill to study transitional housing for them on state property passed the Assembly Monday.  

Assemblymember Chris Ward postponed his bill to ban surveillance pricing. That’s when a vendor monitors your personal or geographic data to hike prices in real time. Ward put the bill on a two-year track, saying misinformation and amendments weakened the bill to the point where he’s not comfortable advancing it this year.  

CARE Court Is Falling Short of Promises 

California created the CARE Court system three years ago on the promise that thousands of people with mental illness would receive treatment, whether they agreed to it or not. 

The program allows family members, first responders and healthcare professionals to petition the courts to get treatment for someone with severe psychosis who can’t take care of themselves.  

A recent CalMatters analysis of statewide data shows that CARE Court has reached only a few hundred people, and most of those entered voluntary programs, not court-ordered treatment. 

San Diego County expected to receive 1,000 petitions in the first year and establish court-ordered treatment plans for 250 people. But in nearly two years, the county received just 384 petitions and set up 134 voluntary agreements. 

Our Lisa Halverstadt also found that San Diego County was among the first to implement the CARE Court program, but it isn’t forcing anyone into treatment. Instead, county officials made the program voluntary. In March, she reported that some people in CARE Court were already under strict mandatory treatment.  

Thank You

Thank you for reading the Sacramento Report. For the past year, I’ve reported on top trends in California government and looked at how they affect us in San Diego.

I’m moving to a new position with CalMatters covering general news from San Diego, with a statewide perspective. CalMatters and Voice of San Diego reporter Nadia Lathan will pick up the Sacramento Report and keep you updated on news from the state capitol. 

The post Sacramento Report: Countdown to California’s Redistricting Election appeared first on Voice of San Diego.