Politics Report: Game On

Supporters of an effort to raise the sales tax for San Diego County filed this week. Now it’s time to collect signatures. Rumors of former Coronado Mayor Richard Bailey’s future in the city of San Diego politics are swirling. One of them is true. And he is getting ever closer to blowing a hole in the city’s budget big enough to drive all the trash trucks through.

We’ve got a lot this week. Let’s start with …

They’re Going for It: A County Half-Cent Sales Tax

Our Lisa Halverstadt has the news: A coalition of labor unions and childcare advocates will officially begin the difficult effort to collect 140,000 signatures to qualify a half-cent countywide sales tax increase for the November 2026 ballot.  

It’s heavily focused on Tijuana River sewage: The name of the petition and ordinance it would become is the Protect San Diego Health and Safety Act.

Its top purpose listed is “Stopping the Tijuana River toxic sewage flows contaminating local beaches, bays, and coastal waters with cross-border sewage treatment infrastructure that we in San Diego County control. No more waiting for Washington D.C. or Mexico.”

Careful: “Stopping the Tijuana River toxic sewage flows …” That’s a bold promise. As Halverstadt reports, the half-cent sales tax increase would apply to all purchases within San Diego County, a big area. It is anticipated to collect $360 million annually. And it requires leaders to set 23 percent of it – or about $81 million – aside for the border sewage crisis.  

That $81 million annually, packaged in a bond, perhaps, and leveraged with national and international funds could make for a big investment. Massive, really. They have clearly come away from their research believing that fixing the border sewage crisis is the most powerful of their pitches and it will feature heavily in the signature-gathering and mailers.

But as someone who still gets calls from people wondering why the schools need more money after voters approved the state lottery, I urge county leaders to be ready to deliver some tangible solutions as soon as possible. They will sell this as a true fix and if, in five years, it’s not fixed, the already brewing trust crisis in this region is going to get ugly.

Halverstadt talked to Courtney Baltiyskyy of Children First San Diego, one of the leaders of the coalition that got the petition to this point.

The bold promise: “This initiative will stop the Tijuana River sewage with cross border sewage-treatment infrastructure that we in San Diego County control,” she said. “We cannot wait for DC and Sacramento and the government in Mexico to solve this thing.”

In 2019, then President Trump in his first term and local leaders championed the $300 million they secured for the problem out of the new trade agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada.

“More free trade and less pollution at the border — it’s what San Diego needs and it looks like it’s what San Diego is going to get,” said then San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer in a written press release.

Six years later, we have less free trade and more pollution at the border. Much of the money appears to have been absorbed in the endless repairs of the existing cross-border sewage treatment plant.

This, as an ongoing source of funding is far greater than what we squeezed out of the trade agreement. But there’s currently no official plan for what it would fund.

City reaction: Councilmember Sean Elo-Rivera has been focused on the city of San Diego’s finances. A lot of people think if the county goes for a tax increase, it will kill the city’s efforts and vice versa. They could kill each other like Romeo and Juliet.

But Elo-Rivera is supportive of the county tax measure. He said it won’t conflict with his effort to tax vacation rentals and second homes because he still plans to put that on the June 2026 ballot.

Otherwise, it’s great.

“I haven’t read the measure, but my understanding is the revenue will be dedicated to really important issues, such as healthcare and child care, which are critical to city residents. The county takes care of San Diegans, their success is our success,” he said.

Meanwhile: The Chamber keeps taking swipes at him. In a text message and a mailer this week, the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce is trying to get him to back off the tax on vacation rentals and second homes.

Paul Krueger passed along a mailer the Chamber sent out. It reads in part “San Diegans are paying more for everything.”

Then: “Now, Councilmember Sean Elo-Rivera has proposed another tax: this time on tourism and vacation rental homes.”

Mystery text messages: Two weeks ago, two text message blasts went out. They seemed directed to residents in Elo-Rivera’s district. “Sean ‘the Con’ Elo-Rivera claims to be a champion of working people, but with a salary of $185,000, he is out of touch. He supported the $523 trash tax, 30% water & sewer rate hikes, and a 20-year sweetheart deal for SDGE while his own pay keeps going up.”

I called the Chamber, wasn’t them. Not the Laborers. Not Bailey. Not the Lincoln Club. Not Airbnb nor anyone with vacation rental interests I could find. If someone spends under $5,000 on something like this, they don’t have to disclose.

One of you knows who sent it. Tell me.

The Trash Tax Repeal Is Real: Buckle Up

I learned something interesting this week. Bailey and those who want to put something on the ballot to repeal the new trash fee the city imposed can get it on the ballot comparatively easily.

As a fee, it was imposed via the processes laid out in Proposition 218. But that proposition also ensured that referenda on government actions only require 5 percent of the number of votes cast in the last gubernatorial election. Within the city of San Diego, that means just over 20,000 signatures. Still no easy feat. Ask the La Jollans, but the city is huge and even at $10+ per signature, it’d be relatively easy compared to many unsuccessful attempts for initiatives in recent years.

I asked Bailey what he would tell city leaders concerned about the very real possibility that this would cause a major financial crisis for the city.

“I would tell them: ‘You shouldn’t have misled voters when you asked for authorization to impose the fee.’ The city of San Diego should do what others do contract with third party who can do what city does for less,” he said.

I pointed out that Coronado has a fee for trash service.

“True. We contracted with EDCO trash services. And that’s what the city should do. Maybe not specifically with EDCO but with a third party,” he said.

Bailey Moving to San Diego

I asked the former Coronado mayor about a rumor that he had purchased a home in Point Loma. It’s true, he said.

He said he had been a renter in Coronado and had always planned to purchase a home.

“As much as I hate to admit it, Coronado was out of my price range,” he said. He’s moving in a couple of weeks and then will be going on a voyage to Antarctica.

So, is he running for office? Maybe. The City Council seat will be open. Several candidates are already in and he wants to be sure he will win.

“I’ve appreciated the support from people encouraging me to run but no decision has been made and I’ll make a decision in a couple months,” he said.

I asked him about another rumor that he had left the Republican Party. He said no.

Nathan Fletcher Back on Public Affairs Stage

Dispatch from Lisa Halverstadt and Mariana Martínez Barba: Nathan Fletcher made his first public appearance not tied to the legal fight that ultimately led to his political demise this week at the annual Regional Task Force on Homelessness conference. 

It was a gathering mostly made up of homeless service providers and advocates – and they were buzzing about Fletcher’s appearance. 

Fletcher, now a paid consultant with the group that coordinates the regional response to homelessness, spoke at two panels.  

Fletcher, a Marine veteran, described a program he will launch with the Task Force in January to connect homeless veterans with union jobs and provide legal help with disability appeals processes that can complicate their paths to getting benefits and moving off the street. He also spoke about holding roundtable discussions with vets over the past year to understand what his community needs to overcome homelessness. 

“It was really an interesting experience,” Fletcher said.  “I think the main part of it that I take away is if you listen, they’ll tell you what works and they’ll tell you what doesn’t work.” 

Task Force CEO Tamera Kohler said she reached out to Fletcher about working with the nonprofit. The organization has since brokered contracts with the former county supervisor to bolster efforts to address veteran homelessness in partnership with a longtime Veterans Affairs official and advise it on how to communicate with San Diegans and politicos about homelessness. 

“He understands messaging. We’re really using him on messaging,” Kohler said. “And then, this veteran space, not only was something he carried, but it is his personal experience.” 

Kohler said Fletcher has embraced an opportunity to give back in a role that isn’t public-facing. 

Thanks to Lisa Halverstadt and Mariana Martínez Barba for chipping in this week. If you have any ideas or feedback for the Politics Report, send them to scott.lewis@voiceofsandiego.org.

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