IMF lowers Philippine growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026

The Philippine economy is seen to grow below target until next year, following the recent slowdown in the third quarter, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.

In a statement for its Article IV Consultation with the Philippines, the IMF trimmed its economic growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.1% for 2025 from 5.4% previously. It also lowered its growth projection for the Philippines to 5.6% for 2026 from 5.7% previously.

If both projections hold true, the Philippines will miss its gross domestic product (GDP) growth target for a fourth straight year. The National Government is targeting 5.5%-6.5% growth in 2025 and 6%-7% in 2026.

“The Philippines’ growth is expected to slow to 5.1% in 2025 as increasing tariffs weigh on exports and investment, before picking up moderately to 5.6% in 2026, a downward revision relative to previous forecasts due to sharper-than-expected slowdown in (the third quarter),” the IMF said in a statement on Monday.

The IMF also revised its inflation estimates for this year to 1.7% from 1.6% and for next year to 2.8% from 2.6%.

“Inflation declined amid a restrictive monetary policy stance and concerted efforts by the government to reduce food prices,” it said. “Inflation is projected to average 1.7% in 2025 then pick up to 2.8% in 2026 as negative base effects recede.” — Katherine K. Chan