Democrats fear voters don’t know their new district is a key battleground for control of Congress

Kristin Maschka is worried.

Not long ago, the Palm Springs resident was among the California voters who couldn’t escape Proposition 50 news. Now, the state’s congressional primary is a mere three months away and she’s worried many voters have no idea what district they’re in.

“What is still missing, and is a big gap, is people’s understanding of how the boundaries of the district have changed [and] how that’s going to change what kind of candidate we need to win (the 48th) district and fulfill the promise of Prop. 50,” she said.

Three months ago, California voters accepted a new, temporary 52-seat Congressional map by approving Prop. 50 — Gov. Gavin Newsom’s bid to flip five House seats and make a handful safer for Democrats to hold. His gambit followed Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s Republican-led redistricting push to turn five seats red and hold on to others.

One of those five newly flippable California seats is Republican Rep. Darrell Issa’s in the 48th District — but with just under four months until the primary, some Democrats are worried they haven’t done enough to let people in the new district know that they live in ground zero of the party’s national midterm strategy.

Dan Schnur, a former California political strategist who now teaches classes at the University of California, USC and Pepperdine, said the message Californians received about Prop. 50 was “if you don’t like Trump, then vote for this initiative.”

He’s not surprised that just a few months later, those same voters don’t know they’re central to the national Democratic strategy to take back the House.

Will Rodriguez-Kennedy, chair of the San Diego County Democratic Party, is not concerned.

By November, he said, “[voters] will have seen signs, they will have seen TV ads, they will have seen mail, someone will have knocked on their door, something would have come to their phone. It is going to be very clear that there is a race in this district.”

Even if a voter makes it to Election Day unsure of whether they’re in the 48th District, they’ll still have heard of the race between Issa and whichever Democrat makes it to the general. He’s hoping they pick the Democrat.

Issa’s territory once included the eastern parts of San Diego County plus the area around Temecula and Murrieta. It now covers about 450,000 voters split almost evenly between San Diego and Riverside counties. The largest cities include San Marcos, Vista and Escondido in San Diego County and Temecula, Hemet and Palm Springs in Riverside County.

The new 48th district would have voted in favor of Kamala Harris by about three points in the 2024 presidential election. But that’s not enough to guarantee a win, said Erin Covey, who covers the House of Representatives for the Cook Political Report.

“It’s a pick-up opportunity for Democrats but you know, it’s certainly not a given,” she said. “We have it rated as a toss-up as of now. A lot of that is in part due to the uncertainty around who comes out of the Democratic primary.”

The top candidates on the ballot for the June 2 primary include San Diego Councilmember Marni von Wilpert, three-time candidate and former Obama administration official Ammar Campa-Najjar, Palm Springs businessman Brandon Riker, Vista Councilmember Corinna Contreras and Abel Chavez, a school board member in Riverside County.

No one won the party endorsement at this weekend’s California Democratic Party convention.

Von Wilpert finished first, collecting endorsement votes from 55% of delegates, shy of the needed 60% threshold. Campa-Najjar took 18% of the delegates and Riker 12%.

Residents along the Interstate-15 corridor — from Escondido through San Marcos and towards Temecula — account for nearly 40% of voters.

Bryan Giardinelli, a Temecula lifer, likes to spend his mornings at Rise to Grind, a coffee shop near Interstate 215 and Murrieta Hot Springs Road that was just redistricted out of the 48th.

The 39-year-old was Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ photographer during the 2020 Democratic primary. He now owns a winery tour company, in which tourists ride in motorcycle sidecars.

Giardinelli, a Ron Paul supporter turned firm progressive, knows people can change their minds about politics. He calls his area “Southern California’s Bible belt” and expects many of his neighbors will vote for Issa, but hopes the “non-MAGA Republicans” will think about voting for a Democrat.

He’s right that voters are flexible. The district leans Democratic, but nearly one in three voters count themselves as independent, according to research from Political Data Intelligence. Democrats can’t displace Issa without picking up a good chunk of those voters.

Giardinelli said the new political lines aren’t the only thing changing the area. An influx of residents from San Diego and other coastal areas moving east looking for affordability and extra space is reshaping the corridor, too.

“I consider this now a better place to be, because there are more people who aren’t just like the ones who grew up here,” he said.