Can North County Keep Working- And Middle-Class Families From Leaving?

This post has been updated.

Every weekday morning, an Oceanside family drives nearly an hour from their new home in Fallbrook to Oceanside so their kids can keep attending the schools they’ve known all their lives. They used to live just minutes away, until the rent got too high. 

Unfortunately, their story isn’t unique. Across North County, an increasing number of working- and middle-class families are leaving in search of affordability. And in many cases, these families are now enduring long commutes to work or school. 

Riverside County, South San Diego County, Tijuana and Inland North County are among the places they’re moving to. Why? It has become too expensive for most working-class families to live and work in North County. 

As we think about the next 20 years, one big question emerges: Can North County keep its working- and middle-class families from leaving? 

“This trend – if we don’t do enough to stop it – it will continue to change North County,” said Eric Joyce, Oceanside’s deputy mayor. 

An Affordability Crisis 

The biggest factor leading to the migration of working- and middle-class families out of North County or further inland is housing costs. 

In 2023, almost every North County city saw 40 to 55 percent of households spending more than 35 percent of their income on rent. The typical rule of thumb is that households should not spend more than 30 percent of their income on rent. 

“A lack of affordable rental supply … and increasingly out-of-reach rent prices lead to unstable housing situations and rent burden, especially among lower-income residents. These unstable housing conditions can lead to displacement,” according to SANDAG’s Anti-Displacement Study, last updated in 2023.  SANDAG stands for the San Diego Association of Governments, the region’s transportation agency. This has led to more and more North County residents moving to more affordable cities and commuting to work. 

This story is part of our Big Questions Facing San Diego in the Next 20 Years reporting project. Read more stories here.

In 2022, the number of people living in one North County city and working in another North County city was 71,051 – significantly higher than those living and working in the same North County city, which was 49,979, according to a report from the San Diego North Economic Development Council, or SDNEDC. 

Joyce has witnessed the impact firsthand. Generations of longtime residents have dwindled and now face displacement, or worse. 

“Beyond people being displaced from our community, we’re also seeing a lot of those people fall into homelessness,” Joyce said. “Any family who’s paying more than 30 percent of their income to rent is vulnerable. One car breaking down, one hospital bill – it often takes one thing for these families to be in danger of losing everything.” 

North County’s aging population is also a factor. Most of the area’s population growth is now from an aging population that is living longer and staying in the region, according to the SDNEDC. As the population ages and leaves the workforce, there’s less available housing for the working-age population.  

North County, like much of the region, has struggled to meet housing demands, sometimes creating up to four new jobs for every one new home in the past two decades, according to a report by the SDNEDC.  

“Unbuilt housing can lead to overcrowding in existing housing, living outside of the county with a ‘mega commute,’ or even homelessness despite being employed,” the report says. 

What’s the Solution? 

Many housing experts agree that the solution to high housing costs is to build more housing. 

It’s why state lawmakers have put strict rules in place that encourage cities to make way for more housing for all income levels. 

“More density,” said Erik Bruvold from the SDNEDC. “Condos, apartments, attached homes – that kind of housing development is the way to meet the needs of middle-income North County residents.” 

The issue, Bruvold told Voice, is that there are too many restrictions in place for building, which can drive up already expensive labor and supply costs. He thinks jurisdictions need to ease up on things like parking minimums, elevator requirements and setbacks to make it cheaper and faster to build more housing. 

He added that some cities in North County, like Oceanside, San Marcos and Vista are on a positive track when it comes to producing more housing. But there needs to be more building in the next 20 years. 

“Everyone needs to do their role,” he said. The challenge is in the next 20 years, jobs will continue to grow, and we need housing to complement that growth. Right now, we’re putting the burden on working-class people to be exiled to long commutes or to have roommates well into adulthood.” 

The result, he added, will be twofold: people delaying having children — which will lead to decreased school enrollment — and people spending less at small businesses and restaurants, causing a broader economic impact.  

“These are the impacts of not getting our hands around how to produce enough housing so that the majority of the working people spend no more than 30 percent of their income on their rent,” Bruvold said. 

Joyce agreed that cities aren’t meeting the demand for housing, but he called for more affordable housing options rather than the types of housing currently being built. 

“We can’t just build our way out of this,” he said. “If we build all high-rise, expensive housing, that’s not going to solve the issue. If we’re going to have a chance of building housing at a lower cost, it needs to be done without the mindset of maximizing profit. That doesn’t mean all housing should be that way, but there needs to be room for all.”

In the next 20 years, he wants cities to use more tools like mixed-income public housing, which is housing that the government funds and is able to make enough profit from the market-rate housing to ensure it remains high quality homes. He’s also in favor of of policies like higher inclusionary housing requirements, tenant protections and rent stabilization to keep families from getting priced out of their homes.  

The Oceanside City Council will soon consider its own rent stabilization ordinance that would mostly impact apartment complexes built before 1995. If passed, it would be the first of its kind in San Diego County. 

“If all local governments do not act, we will be losing the working-class members of our communities who carry the history and so much of the deep roots of our culture through economic displacement,” Joyce said. “North County will lose its living memory of its history.” 

Aug. 19 Clarification: This post has been updated to clarify an indirect quote from Eric Joyce about the tools cities should use.

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