Whirlpool shares tumbled Thursday after the iconic appliance maker warned that the Iran war triggered a severe downturn, underscoring how sharply higher fuel prices and collapsing consumer confidence are beginning to weigh on big-ticket purchases.

“War in Iran resulted in recession-level industry decline in the U.S. as consumer confidence collapsed in late February and March,” the company said in its earnings filing.

The comments marked one of the starkest corporate warnings yet about the economic fallout from the conflict and contrasted with more resilient spending trends recently highlighted by companies tied to travel and services.

Shares of Whirlpool, a maker of washers, dryers, dishwashers and other home appliances, dropped 12% Thursday.

CEO Marc Bitzer said Whirlpool moved quickly to cut costs and adjust pricing as macroeconomic conditions deteriorated.

“We acted decisively to address pricing and costs in the face of rapid deterioration in macroeconomic conditions,” Bitzer said in a statement. “Now, with Section 232 changes in favor of domestic manufacturers, Whirlpool Corporation is structurally positioned to win with our American-made products.”

The company also slashed its full-year earnings guidance roughly in half, cutting its forecast to a range of $3 to $3.50 a share from a prior outlook of about $6 a share. Whirlpool said it would also suspend its dividend as it prioritizes paying down debt.

Analysts at JPMorgan said the lower earnings outlook was driven by higher raw material inflation, a larger net tariff impact, and weaker price and product mix benefits.

While companies such as Uber and Disney have reported little evidence of consumers pulling back on travel, entertainment and convenience spending, the comments from the Maytag parent suggest strain may be emerging in bigger-ticket categories such as washers, dryers and kitchen appliances.

Consumer confidence, according to a University of Michigan survey, touched a record low at one point in April as the Iran war spiked gasoline prices. The stock market has rebounded since mid-April on hope the U.S. and Iran could come to a deal that ends the fighting. U.S. oil prices are still above $90 a barrel, however, as traders wait to see if a peace proposal can be worked out.

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“We’re still looking at positive growth this year in terms of sales… Much of the recovery will probably be realized [because of] the effects of El Niño,” Ronnie L. Aperocho, Meralco executive vice-president and chief operating officer, told reporters last week.

The revised outlook came after the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) raised its warning status from El Niño Watch to El Niño Alert due to the higher likelihood of the climate phenomenon developing in the coming months.

PAGASA said there is a 79% chance that El Niño will emerge between July and August and persist until early 2027.

El Niño is a climate phenomenon associated with drier-than-usual conditions in parts of the country, which can lead to droughts and dry spells while increasing electricity demand because of warmer temperatures.

For the first quarter, electricity sold by Meralco within its distribution utility business fell by 2% year on year to 12,273 gigawatt-hours, which the company attributed to cooler weather conditions that dampened demand.

“Recovery toward the summer months was tempered by intensified energy conservation measures following the escalation of the Middle East conflict,” Mr. Aperocho said.

He said the company expects sales growth to recover beginning in May amid the potential effects of El Niño.

To help improve energy sales, Mr. Aperocho said Meralco is accelerating and streamlining the energization process for customers applying for new connections.

“In fact, we have energized already more than 1,000 service applications for the month of April. And we will be sustaining this momentum,” he said.

Meralco is the country’s largest private electric distribution utility, serving more than 8.1 million customers in Metro Manila and nearby provinces, including Bulacan, Cavite, Rizal, and parts of Laguna, Batangas, Pampanga and Quezon.

Its controlling shareholder, Beacon Electric Asset Holdings, Inc., is partly owned by PLDT Inc. Hastings Holdings, Inc., a unit of PLDT Beneficial Trust Fund subsidiary MediaQuest Holdings, Inc., has an interest in BusinessWorld through the Philippine Star Group, which it controls. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera

THE PHILIPPINE Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) expects the proclamation of six new economic zones (ecozones) within the second quarter in key areas like Batangas, Cavite, and Palawan.

“A total of six ecozones are for proclamation this quarter,” PEZA Director-General Tereso O. Panga told BusinessWorld in a Viber message.

Two ecozones were already endorsed by the Office of the Deputy Executive Secretary for General Administration (ODESGA) and are awaiting the release of the proclamation order from the President, he said.

These are the Suntrust Ecotown Tanza in Cavite and the Light Industry & Science Park IV – Special Economic Zone in Malvar, Batangas.

Likewise, four ecozones are still being evaluated by the ODESGA, Mr. Panga said.

These include ANFLO Industrial Estate in Panabo, Davao; West Cebu Industrial Park in Balamban, Cebu; Rio Tuba Export Processing Zone in Bataraza, Palawan; and Biz Hub at Lima Estate in Lipa City, Batangas.

Mr. Panga also noted that a mega ecozone in Pampanga is slated for approval by the PEZA Board this year.

The Palawan Mega Ecozone in Puerto Princesa City, which was cleared by the PEZA Board last year, also awaits presidential proclamation.

The President must issue a proclamation to declare a tract of land as a special economic zone or ecozone, as reviewed and endorsed by the PEZA Board.

Under Republic Act No. 7916 or the Special Economic Zone Act, ecozones are areas that are considered highly developed or may potentially be turned into an industrial, tourist, agro-industrial, banking, commercial, or investment and financial center.

The agency is looking to proclaim more ecozones in regional areas to help boost countryside development, Mr. Panga said.

“PEZA’s strategy is to spread the creation of ecozones all over the country — particularly in rural and new growth areas to be able to generate investments, jobs, livelihood, exports, increased incomes for LGUs (local government units), and other economic opportunities,” he noted.

Firms operating in a PEZA-registered ecozone can enjoy fiscal and non-fiscal incentives such as duty-free importation, tax holidays, and streamlined processes.

So far this year, President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. has proclaimed three ecozones.

These are the expansion of the First Industrial Township-Special Economic Zone  in Tanauan City, Batangas; Ayala Land, Inc.’s Atria Gardens in Iloilo City; and the First Philippine Industrial Park  II expansion in Sto. Tomas City, Batangas.

For the rest of the year, Mr. Panga said 14 more ecozones are in the pipeline for presidential proclamation.

“Maybe we can hit 20 [ecozone proclamations] this year,” he added.

Earlier, PEZA said it is targeting 30 ecozone proclamations this year.

Sought for comment, former Tariff Commissioner George N. Manzano said ecozones are critical in streamlining firms’ operations as they navigate global trade volatilities.

“Ecozones become especially important during periods of global trade uncertainty because they help reduce many of the day-to-day difficulties faced by investors and exporters,” he said in a Viber message.

Mr. Manzano also cited the need to balance speed in proclaiming new ecozones with the quality of the location. He said authorizing officials must ensure that the area has enough infrastructure, power supply, and long-term economic viability.

“At the same time, it is important that the ecozones should not remain enclaves, i.e., they just import all their inputs and do not use local supplier industries,” Mr. Manzano said.

The latest Treasury data showed payments made by the government for its obligations went down by 7.78% to P169.09 billion in March from P183.36 billion in the same month a year ago.

Month on month, debt service plunged by 60.74% from the P430.64 billion in February.

Debt service refers to the government’s payments on its domestic and foreign debt obligations.

Interest payments accounted for more than half or 57% of the March debt service bill.

The NG’s interest payments rose by 9.38% to P96.38 billion in March from P88.12 billion in the same month a year earlier.

Interest payments on domestic debt stood at P79.71 billion, 24.14% higher than P64.21 billion in March 2025.

Of this total, P47.04 billion went to interest payments for fixed-rate Treasury bonds, P28.23 billion for retail Treasury bonds, and P4.41 billion for Treasury bills.

Meanwhile, interest payments on foreign borrowings declined by 30.26% to P16.68 billion in March from P23.91 billion a year prior.

On one hand, the government’s repayment of its loan principal or amortization stood at P72.71 billion in March, declining by 23.66% from P95.24 billion a year ago.

This came as amortization on external debt dropped by 23.68% to P72.58 billion in March from P95.1 billion in the same month last year.

Meanwhile, principal payments for domestic obligations declined by 7.25% to P128 million in March from P138 million a year prior.

Q1 DEBT SERVICE BILL
For the first quarter, the government’s debt service bill surged by 115.6% to P737.41 billion from P342.02 billion in the same period last year.

Amortization payments in the period jumped by 359.58% to P464.27 billion from P101.02 billion in the first quarter of 2025.

Broken down, principal payments for domestic debt surged to P386.74 billion from P576 million, while those for external borrowings declined to P77.54 billion from P100.45 billion.

Meanwhile, interest payments stood at P273.13 billion in the three-month period, up 13.3% from P241 billion in the same period a year ago.

Interest payments on domestic debt jumped by 18.38% year on year to P211.39 billion in the first quarter from P178.56 billion a year prior.

This consisted of P152.22 billion in interest payments on fixed-rate Treasury bonds, P43.76 billion for retail Treasury bonds, P12.72 billion for Treasury bills, and P2.69 billion in interest payments for other domestic borrowings.

Interest payments on foreign obligations dipped by 1.11% year on year to P61.74 billion in the first quarter from P62.44 billion a year ago.

Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes, a senior research fellow at the Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, said debt service payments will likely remain elevated for the rest of the year.

“The pace may vary by quarter, depending on maturity schedules and interest rate movements (but) several indicators point in that direction,” he said, citing rising outstanding debt, frontloaded borrowing, high interest costs and a weaker peso.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas delivered a 25-basis-point (bp) rate hike last month, bringing the policy rate to 4.5%.

“If global and domestic interest rates continue easing later in 2026, the increase in interest expenses could moderate,” Mr. Peña-Reyes said.

“However, because the debt base itself is now much larger, overall debt service obligations are still expected to stay historically high for the remainder of the year,” he added.

The NG’s debt stock rose to a fresh high of P18.49 trillion as of end-March, the latest BTr data showed. This was equivalent to 65.2% of gross domestic product, the highest ratio in 21 years.

Meanwhile, the peso has been trading above P60 for over two weeks. It closed at P60.613 a dollar on Friday, declining by 19.3 centavos from its P60.42 finish on Thursday. It hit a record low of P61.567 on April 29.

“With growth slowing and interest rates still high, debt servicing is getting more expensive, and that’s where the real risk lies,” said Jonathan L. Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., in a Viber message.

“Credibility matters: tighter fiscal discipline, faster execution, and growth-enhancing spending. The ceiling may be intact, but markets will be watching whether policy keeps debt manageable in practice, not just on paper,” he added. — Justine Irish D. Tabile

ANALYSTS and economic managers are now finding it harder to precisely measure data in their inflation forecasts as rising uncertainty and the faster-than-usual transmission of oil price shocks challenge their models.

University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) economist Marco Antonio C. Agonia said analysts like himself typically use historical data and assumed relationships, both of which could still be adjusting to rapid developments from the unprecedented energy crisis.

“The highly uncertain situation tends to throw off forecasts because previous assumptions about the Philippine economy may no longer be as robust,” Mr. Agonia told BusinessWorld in an e-mail.   

Meanwhile, Bank of the Philippine Islands Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. said they struggled to identify which items fueled inflation during the war’s first month in March, and which emerged later in April.

“We got most of the inflation items except for the transport component,” he told this paper in a Viber message. “We could not determine which part of the increases were captured in March and which ones kicked in last April.”

Inflation accelerated to 7.2% in April, its fastest pace in more than three years, driven by higher oil prices that pushed up the cost of food — particularly rice — and utilities. This was faster than the 4.1% in March and 1.4% a year earlier.

April was the second consecutive month that inflation exceeded both analysts’ forecasts and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) projections.

The BSP had expected the headline print to come in between 5.6% and 6.4% last month, while a BusinessWorld poll of 17 analysts yielded a median estimate of 5.5%.

UA&P’s Mr. Agonia likewise noted that the central bank’s forecasting model may also be “encountering similar constraints.”

Since last year, the BSP has used the Policy Analysis Model for the Philippines (PAMPh) and other workhorse models for economic surveillance, forecasting and informing monetary policy decisions.

The PAMPh uses 290 equations, significantly more than the around 24 used in its older multi-equation model, and assesses more sectors and transmission channels to determine inflation drivers.

“Institutions are now likely revisiting and re-testing their forecasting models and assumptions to account for recent surprises,” Mr. Agonia added.

Under its inflation targeting framework, the central bank noted that inflation could overshoot its 2%-4% target in circumstances such as oil price volatility, where the BSP may have limited control.

Mr. Agonia also noted that oil prices rose more rapidly than during the 2022 energy crisis amid Russia’s Ukraine invasion, further disrupting projections reliant on historical patterns.

“Furthermore, when we tack on the insight that this particular oil price shock progressed much faster than the most recent previous one, namely, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it adds further unknowns that complicate forecasting key indicators,” he said.

Meanwhile, Jonathan L. Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said traditional forecasting models have difficulty keeping up with constantly evolving price pressures from the energy crisis, with inflation drivers reinforcing each other as they emerge.  

“The challenge is this conflict isn’t a one-off shock — it’s persistent and constantly changing shape,” he told BusinessWorld via Viber. “Price pressures now come in waves through energy, food, freight, insurance, FX (foreign exchange), and even wages, and they reinforce each other.”

Since the United States and Israel’s initial attack on Iran on Feb. 28, the global per-barrel oil prices have jumped to over $100 from about $60-$70 earlier this year.

This translated to significantly higher pump prices for the Philippines, which imports over 90% of its oil from the Middle East.

As of end-April, local fuel retailers sold gasoline for about P72.53 to P104.93 per liter, diesel for P75.93 to P101.96 per liter, and kerosene for P125.39 to P147.98 a liter.

PRICE STABILITY AT RISK
Meanwhile, analysts at Singapore-based DBS Bank Ltd. said the Philippines is facing looming price instability, with stagflation risks also rising after growth slowed to a new post-pandemic low of 2.8% in the first quarter.

“Energy supply-driven inflation has already exceeded central bank targets in the Philippines and Vietnam and has reached the upper end in Thailand,” DBS Senior Economist for Eurozone, India, and Indonesia Radhika Rao and Senior Economist for ASEAN Han Teng Chua said in a May 8 note. 

“Price stability could be at risk if upside pressures broaden and trigger second-round effects, reminiscent of the 2022-23 episode,” they added.

This, they noted, should prompt the BSP to stay hawkish with at least 50 basis points (bps) in additional hikes until the third quarter, adding that an off-cycle move is “non-trivial.”

“The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is expected to stay focused on containing inflationary expectations and opt to tighten policy levers,” the DBS economists said. “We expect the BSP to hike rates by at least 50 bps between 2Q-3Q26 (risk of an intermeeting hike is non-trivial).”

Analysts at MUFG Bank Ltd., on the other hand, called for 75 bps in rate increases to bring the policy rate to 5.25%.

“We expect the BSP to hike by another 75 bps in our base case, with the timing likely to be earlier rather than later and bringing the key BSP policy rate to 5.25%,” they said in a separate report.

The central bank’s policy rate now stands at 4.5%, following its first tightening move in over two years at its April 23 meeting.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. has left the door open for more “modest” hikes as needed to bring inflation back to their 3% target, stressing their commitment to their price stability mandate. 

“For adverse or severe scenarios, inflation could rise to a 7.5% or even as high as 10%, and associated supply shortage would imply a much-decelerated growth, even a recession in (a) severe scenario,” MUFG analysts said. “The extreme inflation would likely make (the) BSP biased toward tightening.”

Faster inflation for imports amid the peso’s recent depreciation against the dollar could also weigh on the economy, especially if the weakness persists, DBS’ Ms. Rao and Mr. Chua also noted.

For MUFG analysts, the local unit could trade between P60.50 to P61.50 per dollar this year, with a likely P62:$1 scenario if domestic and global conditions worsen.

“The Philippines is vulnerable not only because of its high dependence on the Middle East crude oil, but also the weak starting point of growth pre-dating the Iran War,” they noted. “This is in turn driven by fiscal tightening and the flood control projects scandal — reasons unrelated to the Strait of Hormuz — but certainly exacerbated by what’s happening in the Middle East.

The peso plunged to the P61-a-dollar level for the first time last month, even closing at a new historic low of P61.567 versus the greenback on April 29.

On Friday, the local unit fell by 19.3 centavos to close at P60.613 per dollar from its P60.42 finish on Thursday, Bankers Association of the Philippines data showed.

PHILIPPINE gross domestic product (GDP) likely remained below the government’s 5-6% growth target in the second quarter as higher oil prices and tighter financial conditions continued to dampen domestic demand, analysts said. 

This as the Development Budget Coordination Committee is set to meet this week to review its macroeconomic assumptions following the weaker-than-expected first-quarter performance.

“We expect second-quarter GDP growth to grow moderately between 3% and 3.2% year on year as higher oil prices and tighter financial conditions continue to weigh on domestic demand,” Maybank Investment Bank economist Azril Rosli told BusinessWorld.

Marco Antonio C. Agonia, an economist at the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P), said that he expects “similar, sub-3% growth in the second quarter with traditional growth drivers still under siege.”

If realized, the second-quarter GDP would be slower than the 5.44% growth in the same period in 2025.

However, it could be slightly faster than the 2.8% GDP expansion in the first quarter of 2026, which was the slowest print in five years.

“The bulk of public infrastructure spending will likely only return by the second half of the year, which immediately drags investment formation,” said Mr. Agonia.

Government spending grew by 4.8% in the first quarter, much slower than 18.7% a year ago but faster than the 0.7% growth in the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, gross capital formation — the investment component of the economy — contracted by 3.3% in the first quarter, a reversal of the 4.5% growth a year ago. Still, this was an improvement from the 9.4% decline in the fourth quarter.

“Household consumption is likely to stay soft as rising transport, food, and utility costs erode purchasing power, while investment activity remains constrained by elevated borrowing costs and ongoing infrastructure implementation delays,” said Mr. Rosli. 

Household final consumption expenditure — a key driver of the economy — grew by 3% in the first quarter, the slowest pace since the 4.8% contraction in the first quarter of 2021.

Excluding the pandemic, this was the slowest growth in consumption since 2.6% in the third quarter of 2010.

“Key downside risks include a further escalation in geopolitical tensions, sustained Brent crude prices above $110 per barrel, broader second-round inflation effects, and the possibility of more aggressive BSP tightening,” Mr. Rosli added.

Inflation accelerated to 7.2% in April, breaching the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 5.6%-6.4% forecast for the month.

The BSP has signaled more rate hikes to keep inflation in check after the April print exceeded expectations. Last month, the central bank delivered its first 25-basis-point rate hike in two and a half years, bringing the benchmark policy rate to 4.5%.

“Compounding the issue, the effects of the Middle East war will be felt harder in the second quarter, with all months within it experiencing the brunt of the oil shock and its second-round effects,” said Mr. Agonia.

“Higher inflation and supply disruptions will weigh on consumer and business confidence, dampening spending appetite,” he added.

Following the sluggish first-quarter GDP performance, Fitch Solutions unit BMI slashed its 2026 Philippine GDP growth forecast to 4.2% from 4.7%, while Capital Economics cut its projection to 3% from 3.5%. Pantheon Macroeconomics likewise lowered its estimate to 4% from 4.8%.

SILVER LINING
Finance Secretary Frederick D. Go last week said that the government will boost spending to revive the economy, and downplayed stagflation risks.

“The economic team is totally optimistic that once the war in Iran is over, the growth of our economy will resume its previous path. So, that means we’re looking at the mid 5% levels as soon as all these uncertainties are over,” Mr. Go told Bloomberg News.

Mr. Go also noted that foreign companies are still interested in setting up operations in the Philippines.

“The interest to invest in the Philippines is at an all-time high,” he said. “I don’t think we will have stagflation.”

Mr. Agonia said infrastructure spending could help drive growth in the succeeding quarters.

“The largest bright spot we see would be the resurgence of infrastructure spending by the second half of this year,” he said.

Last week, Department of Economy, Planning, and Development Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said that he expects government spending and project implementation to accelerate in the coming months as agencies operationalize their catch-up programs.

A corruption scandal involving flood control projects had stalled government spending, and dampened consumer and investor confidence. Mr. Baliscan had said the lingering effects of the scandal continued to be seen in the first-quarter economic data.

For Maybank’s Mr. Rosli, services activity, remittance inflows, tourism recovery, and resilient electronic exports will continue to support the economy.

“In particular, the ongoing global artificial intelligence (AI)-driven semiconductor upcycle could become a meaningful upside driver for Philippine exports given that electronic products account for 54% of total exports,” he said.

“Export growth remained relatively strong at 7.8% year on year in the first quarter despite weaker domestic conditions, supported partly by semiconductor-related demand,” he added.

This growth was driven by a 13.3% expansion in goods exports and a 3% increase in services exports.

However, Mr. Agonia said that although exports could provide a minor favorable tilt, “downside risks in the form of logistics disruptions and a softer global demand outlook are rising.”

“We note that volatility in the peso-dollar rate is shaking exporters’ confidence, constraining solvency and raising input costs,” he said.

Still, Mr. Agonia said that AI-related semiconductor demand could be “one of the few green shoots in the Philippines’ growth picture, with robust performance despite global headwinds.” 

“This may be an opportune time for the Philippines to move up the electronic product value chain and seek out more enduring growth drivers,” he added.

Interstellar travel propelled by light just got one step closer. Light sails, which are huge sheets pushed along by light that bounces off of them, may be the best way to travel enormous distances through space, and now we may have a way to steer them.

“We knew already that any light or laser can impart momentum transfer, but now we can control the direction as well,” says Kaushik Kudtarkar at Texas A&M University. He and his colleagues created a tiny device called a metajet that uses refraction of light, not just reflection, to move in more than one direction at once.

The device is a material called a metasurface, an extremely thin sheet textured to manipulate light. In this case, the researchers flipped that on its head, using the light to manipulate the metasurface. A series of tiny pillars on the material steers the light that hits it, with the size and pattern of the pillars controlling the strength and direction of the momentum that the light imparts on the entire device as it moves through. The whole thing is about 0.01 millimetres across.

To test it, the researchers dropped the silicon device in water and shone a laser on it, watching it with a microscope to track its motion. They found that the metajet both levitated and moved horizontally, reaching a maximum speed of about 0.07 millimetres per second.

“Now that we know about the forces on this device, you can change the metasurface design and then you can steer it in any way you want,” says Kudtarkar. There are metasurfaces that change their shapes over time, and such a material could be used on light sails to steer them through space, he says.

“For space, you can expand it, but you can keep it the same size and use it for biomedical applications as well: these devices could literally push drugs to a specific location,” says Kudtarkar. Lasers can already be used to do this, but their heat can damage the molecules, and with metajets, the drugs would not be directly exposed to the heat and light of a laser beam.

The researchers are now looking to make their device work with different wavelengths of light, especially the broad spectrum of sunlight to make them more compatible with the type of light sail that would be used for space travel. “It’s all a bit sci-fi,” says Kudtarkar.

Topics:

• materials/
• space exploration

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Sam Rutherford for Engadget

The idea of installing a software update on your fridge already feels kind of weird, let alone one centered around improving its AI capabilities. But that’s exactly what’s happening to Samsung’s line of Bespoke refrigerators this week, and to my surprise this patch is making major strides at providing truly useful machine learning in a modern day icebox.

As a quick recap, Samsung has offered AI-powered features like automatic food recognition and meal planning on its Bespoke refrigerators for a couple years already. However, as I found out after reviewing its flagship model late last year, the company’s AI capabilities are still very much a work in progress. Previously, the fridge could recognize around 60 different kinds of fresh foods (like fruits and veggies) alongside another 50 or so packaged goods like yogurt or popcorn. That felt like a decent start, but considering the sheer number of different items you can find at a typical grocery store, it was far from complete. Furthermore, you often had to input additional data like the number of items or when something was first added, which made the idea of AI-assisted grocery tracking more tedious than I’d like. I don’t know about you, but I generally don’t want to have to type on my fridge and I’m pretty sure the engineers at Samsung agree, which is probably what brought about this major update to its Bespoke refrigerator software.

So what’s new?

Sam Rutherford for Engadget

The big change is that Samsung is adding support for Google Gemini, which has several important implications. By combining Samsung’s existing on-device object recognition with Google’s cloud-based models, the total number of identifiable foods is increasing from just over 100 items to more than 2,000. Now this does mean you will need to connect the fridge to Wi-Fi, but considering the number of other smart features it supports like calendar integration and video playback, that’s not a big ask.

Another update is that Samsung is using Gemini to expand voice controls, allowing users to ask the fridge to change things like device settings, check details like when the water filter was last replaced or to even help troubleshoot issues. And depending on the situation, the fridge can even play back a tutorial about how to solve the issue.

Alternatively, for more complicated or harder-to-solve problems, Samsung is introducing what it calls Reliability AI, which is designed to monitor the fridge’s components or help identify faults before they get too serious. Or in cases where the device needs to be serviced, the AI can provide more detailed info to agents while potentially allowing them to fix certain things remotely.

For example, a Samsung representative told me that if a customer calls and says that cubes from the icemaker are coming out in clumps and stuck together, Reliability AI could allow agents to reduce the amount of water that is being added to the ice tray — all without ever needing to physically come to your home. Critically, Samsung says that while the fridge will monitor and track device health metrics, owners will need to provide express consent in order for repair personnel to access that data. Meanwhile, if an issue does require in-person servicing, Samsung says that by sharing this data with repair technicians, it allows people to identify and solve problems faster instead of having to arrive with no context and diagnose issues from scratch.

How this works in the real world

Sam Rutherford for Engadget

My test unit hasn’t run into any mechanical issues in the eight months I’ve been using it, so I haven’t been able to evaluate Samsung’s Repairability AI. That said, after checking it out first at Samsung’s headquarters, I’ve had the chance to use an early version of the Bespoke line’s new software over the last two weeks — including its upgraded support for cloud-based object recognition — and the improvement is profound. Even after using it for a while, I’m still surprised by how many different foods it recognizes. Deep in the back of my fridge, I have a can of Bull Head Shallot Sauce, which is a rather niche ingredient from Taiwan used almost exclusively in Asian dishes. However, the AI had no trouble recognizing it, automatically tagging it and including when it was first added to the fridge’s AI Food Manager.

On top of that, the system is now much better at recognizing brands and counting the number of specific ingredients in order to create more detailed listings. It can distinguish between a Diet Coke and Coke Zero while also accurately noting that there were multiples of each item. And even though the fridge often has to ping a cloud-based server somewhere to help recognize various items, results appeared rather quickly, often in less than a few seconds. And for certain foods like avocados, I was delighted that the fridge tracks how long you’ve had it and will surface a notification that it might be getting close to expiration. Granted, it’s not always right, but all I really need is a reminder to check on things and it does just that.

Sam Rutherford for Engadget

I also noticed that the fridge now remembers when you frequently take a specific food out and then asks if you want to add that item to your shopping list. It’s a nice reminder to replenish staples you use regularly and happens in a low-friction way, so it doesn’t become annoying. From there, you can simply check your phone when you’re at the store instead of needing to manually curate a list every week. Also, because the fridge does a much better job of recognizing and tracking what’s inside, it can provide better suggestions about recipes you can cook using ingredients you already have.

That said, like a lot of current models, the AI doesn’t always nail every detail. For example, I was initially impressed when it automatically labeled a tub of fake cream cheese as “Philadelphia Plant-based,” until I realized that the label was incomplete and the AI was merely reading what was written on the lid and didn’t have the smarts to accurately finish the description. Don’t get me wrong, it provides more than enough info to help me figure out what’s in the fridge when I’m glancing at the Food Manager. It’s just not quite spot on.

Outlook and things that still need work

Sam Rutherford for Engadget

The one issue with this update is that like a lot of AI services today, Samsung’s new software can be a bit overconfident or prone to hallucinations. One time, as my wife was putting something back in the fridge, the algorithm took a picture of a brightly colored bandage on her finger and labeled that as a veggie, which it very much is not. Other times it seemingly just guesses. But I’d argue going from around 100 identifiable items to over 2,000 is a very welcome improvement even with the limitations.

The other weird thing is that even though Samsung is leveraging Google’s AI models for a lot of the fridge’s new features, you won’t see any obvious callouts to Gemini inside the device itself. That’s kind of a bummer because Bixby is still the only digital assistant you can use and talk to directly.

I’ve said before that Samsung’s AI food recognition is a work in progress and I think that still holds true. With this latest update, the company has gotten a lot closer to delivering on the promise of a fridge with truly useful AI-powered features. What once felt more like a promising tech demo has quickly become a handy tool to keep track of your groceries, even with some hiccups here and there.

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It would be an engineering project on a truly epic scale, but we may one day need to consider building a dam between Alaska and eastern Russia. The audacious proposal would be designed to stave off the worst consequences of the collapse of a vital ocean current, and researchers have been mulling it over this week at a major conference.

The idea comes from Jelle Soons and his colleague Henk Dijkstra at the University of Utrecht in the Netherlands, who study the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or AMOC. This current system, which includes the Gulf Stream, is a major reason why northern Europe has a relatively mild climate for its latitude.

However, we know the current is weakening. There is huge uncertainty about what would happen if it collapses, but some models suggest it could see temperatures in northern Europe drastically plunge.

Soons thought a dam could be a possible intervention after hearing about how during the Pliocene era, from roughly 5.3 to 2.6 million years ago, sea levels were lower and there was a land bridge where we now find the Bering Strait. Simulations of the Pliocene climate show the AMOC was stronger then, mainly thanks to that land bridge. “I was like: ok, could we do this again?” says Soons.

To investigate the effects of building such a dam, Soons and Dijkstra ran simulations of the AMOC varying both the date when the dam would be built and the exact amount of freshwater present.

Freshwater is a key part of the equation because it currently flows from the Pacific through the Bering Strait into the north Atlantic, which weakens the AMOC. Building a dam would stop or slow the flow.

In work published a few weeks ago, Soons and Dijkstra obtained mixed results: in some scenarios the dam appeared to strengthen the AMOC, but in others it had the opposite effect. However, those results came from a relatively simple and low-resolution model.

On 5 May at the European Geosciences Union general assembly in Vienna, Austria, Soons presented work that repeated the simulations on a supercomputer using a much more advanced climate model. This indicated that closing the Strait would strengthen AMOC, especially if the dam were built early – by at least 2050. “I was surprised at how strong the recovery was,” says Soons.

The Bering Strait is only 59 metres deep at its deepest point and there are two small islands in the middle, meaning any barrier could conceivably be built in two halves. Ed McCann, a past president of the Institution of Civil Engineers and now at Expedition Engineering says the best way to do this would be to avoid concrete and instead use floating machinery to build a barrier of rock and dredged sand. “This sort of construction is pretty simple, just very big and very expensive,” he wrote in an email.

Jonathan Rosser at the London School of Economics says that the work is interesting but that because we don’t fully understand the AMOC, we can’t be sure of the consequences of such an intervention. “These drastic things really do have big uncertainties attached.”

Soons agrees and says that while building a dam might be helpful to northern Europe, it could create other problems, such as altering rainfall patterns, elsewhere. “Whether you would consider this a serious proposal? I don’t think we’re there yet,” he says.

This is not the first time that researchers have mulled the idea of building a huge sea dam to mitigate climate change. In 2020, Sjoerd Groeskamp at the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research unveiled an idea called the Northern European Enclosure Dam, which would involve building two barriers to hem in the sea between the UK and Europe and prevent rising sea levels from inundating low-lying parts of the continent.

As well as effects on climate, any such dam would have other side effects on things like marine-mammal migrations, tides and shipping to remote communities. Soons says he has toyed with ideas like building half a barrier or having it descend to a depth of only say 10 metres. These are “interesting ideas” he says, although he hasn’t yet had a chance to consider their merits properly.

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WASHINGTON — The Space Systems Command’s commercial space office awarded Viasat a $307 million contract to provide satellite communications services for the U.S. Marine Corps. The company is retaining the work after winning a recompete for the contract supporting Marine Corps global communications.according to a May 8 announcement.

The five-year contract is for the Marine Corps Enterprise Commercial Satellite Services, or MECS2.

“This contract provides access to multi-orbit commercial satellite communications in all commercially available frequency bands via orbit and terrestrial resources, day-to-day resource management. Work will be performed at varying locations worldwide,” the announcement said.

The Space Systems Command’s Commercial Space Office procures commercial satellite communications services on behalf of U.S. military branches. Under the MECS2 program, the Marine Corps is seeking to integrate multi-orbit and multi-band services that leverage newer commercial satellite architectures.

The contract covers both transponded bandwidth capacity and end-to-end managed services across multiple satellite frequency bands, as well as cellular connectivity intended to support worldwide communications requirements.

The reference to “multi-orbit” reflects a broader Defense Department push to combine services from satellites operating in geostationary orbit, medium Earth orbit and low Earth orbit rather than relying on a single network architecture. 

Inmarsat, which was acquired by Viasat in 2023, previously held the MECS2 contract. The procurement was opened to competitors last year, though only Viasat submitted a proposal.

Related

Sandra Erwin writes about military space programs, policy, technology and the industry that supports this sector. She has covered the military, the Pentagon, Congress and the defense industry for nearly two decades as editor of NDIA’s National Defense…
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NASA

Following the success of its Artemis II crewed mission, NASA is now turning its focus to the next milestones in its plan to put astronauts back on the moon. The space agency has been eyeing a moon landing in 2028, and it’s tapped Blue Origin and SpaceX to provide the landers that could support humans on the surface (though neither company has demonstrated a moon landing yet). This week, NASA shared that it now has a full-scale prototype of the crew cabin of Blue Origin’s Mark 2 lander so it can begin training.

With the 15-foot-tall prototype at NASA’s Johnson Space Center, the space agency and Blue Origin will be able to “conduct a series of human-in-the-loop tests, or tests with human interaction, including mission scenarios, mission control communications, spacesuit checkouts, and preparations for simulated moonwalks,” NASA explained. This mock-up only includes the crew cabin, which sits at the base of the lander — the whole thing with the rest of the systems integrated will be a towering 52-feet-tall when it goes to the moon. But as recent attempts have shown, landing smoothly on the moon isn’t easy, and both Blue Origin and SpaceX have their work cut out for them to get their landers ready on NASA’s current timeline.

An uncrewed version of Blue Origin’s lander, dubbed Endurance (or MK1), has been undergoing testing in NASA’s thermal vacuum chamber ahead of its first mission this year, in which it will deliver science payloads to the lunar surface. For the next leg of the Artemis program, the Artemis III crew will fly in the Orion spacecraft to low Earth orbit and test docking capabilities with Blue Origin and SpaceX’s landers, or whichever one is ready. NASA is targeting 2027 for this mission.

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The Philippines’ gross international reserves (GIR) fell to its lowest level in over a year as its foreign exchange holdings slumped at end-April, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said.

Preliminary central bank data showed that the country’s GIR level stood at $104.128 billion as of end-April, down 2.35% from the $106.636 billion a month ago.

This was the lowest GIR level in 15 months or since the $103.271 billion logged in January 2025.

Year on year, the country’s dollar reserves slipped by 1.12% from $105.308 billion.

Still, the central bank noted that the end-April reserves are enough to cover about 3.8 times the country’s short-term external debt based on residual maturity.

It likewise translates to 6.9 months’ worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income, more than double the three-month standard.

“The latest GIR level ensures availability of foreign exchange to meet balance of payments financing needs, such as for payment of imports and debt service, in extreme conditions when there are no export earnings or foreign loans,” the BSP said late on Thursday.

Dollar reserves are the central bank’s foreign assets held mostly as investments in foreign-issued securities, foreign exchange and monetary gold, among others.

These are supplemented by claims to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the form of reserve position in the fund and special drawing rights (SDRs).

BSP data showed that the latest decline in foreign reserves came as the country only held $464.9 billion in foreign exchange during the period, plunging by 73.38% from the $1.747 billion the prior month and by 30.85% from $672.3 million last year.

Its gold holdings were also slightly lower month on month as of end-April at $19.78 billion, down 1.97% from $20.177 billion at end-March. However, it jumped by 48.29% from $13.338 billion a year ago.

Meanwhile, its foreign investments dropped by 1.11% to $79.198 billion from $80.088 billion the previous month and by 8.63% from $86.674 billion a year earlier.

However, its reserve position in the IMF climbed by 1.3% month on month to $723.6 million as of end-April from $714.3 million previously but dipped 2.43% from $741.6 million in the same period in 2025.

The country’s SDRs — or the amount the Philippines can tap from the IMF’s reserve currency basket — also reached $3.961 billion, 1.29% higher than the $3.912 billion as of end-March and up 2.05% from $3.882 billion last year.

For 2026, the BSP sees the country’s foreign reserves ending at $111 billion.

Claire Huang, Synology Philippines country manager, said that amid the country’s advancing digital initiatives, resilience can no longer be treated as a secondary consideration.

“Government systems must be designed to handle disruptions, protect sensitive data, and keep essential services available at all times,” Ms. Huang said in a statement, noting that this is crucial to ensuring public trust as more services go online.

The Philippines is among the countries most affected by cyberattacks globally, including attacks such as ransomware, phishing, and identity theft, Synology said, citing the Microsoft Digital Defense Report 2025.

During the GOVX.0 Conference 2026 held a few days ago, Synology shared how government agencies can strengthen their systems’ resilience through reliable backup, faster data recovery, and the ability to maintain operations during unexpected events.

The tech company also offers solutions such as Synology ActiveProtect, a specialized, high-performance data protection solution.

It said that the solution helps organizations standardize recovery processes, reduce manual workloads, and respond quickly to disruptions that halt access to essential services.

Synology reiterated that data resilience will remain crucial in ensuring reliable and secure access for citizens amid the expansion of digital government services. — Edg Adrian A. Eva

“We recognize the vital roles of our schools in shaping our citizens,” CEAP Advocacy and Public Engagement Office Ina Claustro said during a press conference.

“It’s difficult to teach democracy when power continues to revolve only among few families,” she added in Filipino.

Ms. Claustro noted that schools bear the responsibility of teaching the youth that public offices are not inherited and should be used for the greater good.

“Education must produce citizens who are critical and engaged,” she said. “To our youth, do not lose hope, do not accept that this is how politics work.”

“Democracy only works when new voices are given space to lead. Leadership should be earned through competence, integrity, and service – not inherited by some people,” she added.

The D1L movement proposes a law that prohibits political families from holding more than one position each in national and local offices. The proposal includes family members up to the fourth degree of consanguinity and affinity.

The succession, replacement, or switching of position among political families is also not allowed under the proposed law, and families that had members in political positions must maintain a “one term cooling period” after reaching their term limits.

“This law will change the composition and quality of members of the Congress and the leaders in the LGUs (local government units),” the groups said in a statement.

“A genuine anti-dynasty law is critical to our rejection of the politics of patronage, ayuda, pork barrel… political education, electoral reform, budget reform, and training and formation of our public servant leaders,” it added.

Under Article VI, Section 32 of the 1987 Constitution, the public can propose a law through a people’s initiative if the petition is signed by at least 10% of the total number of registered voters nationwide, and every legislative district has at least 3% signatures from registered voters.

“We are currently mobilizing our member schools across 17 regions to support this people’s initiative guided by hope, justice, mercy, and unity,” Ms. Claustro said in mixed English and Filipino. — Almira Louise S. Martinez

“Education is the most reliable ladder out of poverty. When a disaster strikes, that ladder shouldn’t break,” Education Secretary Juan Edgardo “Sonny” M. Angara said in a news release.

“We are fulfilling President Bongbong Marcos’ mandate to use innovation not just for safety, but for stability,” he added.

The agency said Project LIGTAS+, which stands for Learning Institution Geohazard Tracking and Assessment for Safety, aims to protect students from class disruptions caused by natural disasters.

“We are moving away from guesswork and toward a future where data ensures that no child’s education is washed away by a storm,” Mr. Angara said.

Data from the Second Congressional Commission on Education (EDCOM 2) showed that the country lost 53 school days in 2023 to 2024. The majority of which were lost due to high heat indices during April/May and typhoons.

Through the platform, schools would be able to receive school-specific risk profiles in real time by utilizing geospatial analytics, satellite imagery, and historical hazard data.

Other features of the platform include an interactive multi-hazard map, flood intelligence powered by satellite SAR data, earthquake impact assessments, volcanic activity monitoring, and AI-powered weather forecasts up to 10 days in advance.

DepEd noted that the platform would also help identify which specific schools within a locality are at risk and which can safely remain open during calamities. Meanwhile, teachers and school personnel can have early warnings for extreme heat and landslides.

“Project LIGTAS+ is designed to generate granular hazard views, enabling decision-makers to move beyond broad assumptions and toward more context-specific action,” the agency said in a news release.

“Project LIGTAS+ aims to give every parent peace of mind, knowing their children are protected by a system that is always one step ahead of the next disaster, ensuring that the path out of poverty remains open even in the face of nature’s uncertainty,” it added.

Project LIGTAS+ is currently in its pilot implementation phase and is designed to support DepEd’s long-term planning around school infrastructure and resource prioritization. — Almira Louise S. Martinez

The MakatiMed Wellness Hub is located on the 7th Floor of Ayala North Exchange Tower 1, just a short walk from its main hospital complex, providing a more relaxed ambience while maintaining easy access to the center’s consultants.

The facility has a total floor area of 1,157 square meters.

“This is a program of MMC that provides holistic and compassionate care, with a strong emphasis on comfort and convenience,” Saturnino P. Javier, medical director and interim co-president and chief executive officer (CEO) of MMC, said during the hub’s exclusive media briefing on Thursday.

“But ultimately, it is guided by the quality and safety standards for which MMC is known,” he added, noting the hub’s key differentiation from its counterparts.

The MakatiMed Wellness Hub also consolidates the center’s preventive care services, which were previously more difficult for patients to navigate within the hospital, Arlyn L. Songco, senior vice president and division head of creative, communications, and sales services at MMC, said.

“It’s now outside the hospital in a very nice, relaxing environment,” she said.

The hub offers services such as executive health checkups, cardiac screening, diagnostic imaging and laboratory services, primary care vaccinations, dermatologic and laser procedures, and mental wellness services.

Ms. Songco said that the wide range of services can be availed of by patients of all ages.

BusinessWorld had the opportunity to tour the Wellness Hub. Among its highlights is the dermatology and laser area, which features a state-of-the-art machine that maps moles across the body to help in the early detection of possible skin cancer.

Eunice B. Mocas, department manager of the MakatiMed Wellness Hub, said that the price for executive health checkups starts at P20,000, which already includes the “Basic 5” laboratory tests and assessment: physical examination, complete blood count, urinalysis, stool examination, chest X-ray, and chemistry panel.

She also said that packages will be offered and tailored to the needs and demographics of patients.

Since its inception, the MakatiMed Wellness Hub outpatient facility has been serving around 100 patients a day during lean months, Ms. Songco said. — Edg Adrian A. Eva

The US Department of Defense (DoD) released a trove of files on UFOs. The files include images along with government documents and correspondence, some of which were classified until now.

“These files, hidden behind classifications, have long fueled justified speculation – and it’s time the American people see it for themselves,” said US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth in a statement on the government website where the files are displayed.

The images are mostly photographs taken by members of the US military showing small dots or indistinct shapes in the sky. Of more interest are the hundreds of pages of files relating to UFOs, also called unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAPs), from the FBI, Air Force and various other government departments.

Many of the pages are correspondence between the government and concerned members of the public. Some are pamphlets from special-interest groups such as the Amalgamated Flying Saucer Clubs of America or the Fraternity of Cosmic Sons and Daughters, and others are requests from children to the head of the FBI – many to J. Edgar Hoover, who served in the role from 1935 to 1972 – for help with school projects.

Letters from UFO enthusiasts through the years, from the 1940s to now, show remarkable similarities in the sentiments they express: a feeling that UFO sightings have been mounting, that the government must be hiding something and that they are sure to be persecuted for saying as much.

The responses to these letters, and the internal government communications that have been released, seem to show something different – many thousands of reports of UFO sightings have been taken seriously and investigated, and there has been no indication that any of them have been extraterrestrial. This mirrors the 2023 results from NASA’s task force on UAPs, which found that normal aircraft and weather phenomena account for most reports, with only a few remaining unexplained due to blurry images and low-quality data.

The documents that have made the biggest splash are images and transcripts from NASA’s Gemini 7, Apollo 12 and Apollo 17 missions, each referencing some bright lights that the astronauts saw in space and could not explain. Most of these sightings have already been investigated and explained as micrometeoroid impacts on the moon or the spacecraft, bits of floating debris, and camera or film defects, although a few have remained unexplained thus far.

The DoD has opened a new investigation into the images that remain unexplained, and has been directed by the administration of President Donald Trump to “conduct separate reporting” on any unresolved UAP cases. According to the website, this is only the first of many rolling document drops expected “every few weeks” as more files are found and declassified.

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Discord is recovering following a brief outage that saw some users unable to use the popular chat app. At 3:08PM ET, the company said it had begun investigating an issue with its API systems. Shortly thereafter, at 3:24PM ET, Discord said it had identified the problem, but noted at the time it was still affecting users, making it difficult for them to access the service. 

“We are continuing to work to remediate the issues impacting availability for some Discord users,” the company said at3:56PM ET. “This is causing impact across our service, including logging in and sending messages.” Whatever was causing the disruption, Discord appeared to solve it quickly. At 4:16PM ET, the company said it was starting to see “seeing significant recovery” across its systems. As of 4:59PM ET, the service isn’t at “fully healthy state” yet, so if you’re having trouble launching the app, it may take a bit more time before everything is up and running again. By 6:38PM ET, Discord reported that “all critical functionalities have recovered for all users.”

Update 6:4PM ET: The headline and copy of this article have been updated to reflect that Discord is back online for all users.

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Muna just released their new album, Dancing on the Wall, and now they’ve lined up a sprawling run of shows across the U.S., UK, and Europe. The Gets So Hot Tour officially kicks off September 17 in Phoenix and runs through November. Muna will also spend the summer hitting festivals including Lollapalooza and D.C.’s All Things Go. Scroll down to see all of their upcoming performances.

Revisit the review of Muna’s 2022 self-titled album.

Muna:
05-08 Los Angeles, CA – The Shrine
05-09 Los Angeles, CA – The Shrine
05-16 Brooklyn, NY – Music Hall of Williamsburg
05-17 Brooklyn, NY – Music Hall of Williamsburg
05-18 Brooklyn, NY – Music Hall of Williamsburg
05-19 Brooklyn, NY – Music Hall of Williamsburg
05-26 London, England – Heaven
05-27 London, England – Heaven
05-28 London, England – Heaven
07-31 St. Charles, IA – Hinterland Music Festival
08-02 Chicago, IL – Lollapalooza
08-04 Salt Lake City, UT – Twilight Concert Series
08-06 Portland, OR – Pioneer Courthouse Square
08-07 Seattle, WA – Capitol Hill Block Party
09-17 Phoenix, AZ – The Van Buren ^
09-19 Austin, TX – Moody Amphitheater ^
09-20 Dallas, TX – The Bomb Factory ^
09-22 Nashville, TN – The Pinnacle ^
09-23 Atlanta, GA – The Eastern ^
09-25 Phialdelphia, PA – Highmark Mann Center for the Performing Arts ^
09-26 Washington, D.C. – All Things Go
09-29 Pittsburgh, PA – Stage AE ^
10-01 Boston, MA – Roadrunner ^
10-04 Columbus, OH – Kemba Live! ^
10-06 Toronto, Ontario – Coca-Cola Coliseum ^
10-07 Detroit, MI – Masonic Temple Theatre
10-09 Chicago, IL – The Salt Shed Fairgrounds ^
10-11 Minneapolis, MN – The Armory
10-16 San Diego, CA – Rady Shell at Jacobs Park ^
10-17 Santa Barbara, CA – Santa Barbara Bowl ^
10-18 Stanford, CA – Frost Amphitheater ^
10-21 Morrison, CO – Red Rocks Amphitheatre ^
11-11 Dublin, Ireland – Olympia Theatre
11-13 Glasgow, Scotland – O2 Academy Glasgow
11-14 Manchester, England – O2 Apollo Manchester
11-15 Bristol, England – Bristol Beacon
11-17 London, England – Eventim Apollo
11-20 Amsterdam, Netherlands – Melkweg Max
11-21 Paris, France – Élysée Montmartre
11-23 Brussels, Belgium – La Madeleine
11-24 Cologne, Germany – Carlswerk Victoria
11-26 Warsaw, Poland – Progresja
11-27 Berlin, Germany – Astra Kulturhaus

^ with Hemlocke Springs

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In a regulatory filing on Thursday, the listed retailer said net income rose to P3.26 billion in the January-to-March period from P2.64 billion a year earlier.

Consolidated net sales increased by 12.1% to P58.78 billion from P52.42 billion in the same period last year.

Puregold said the growth was supported by positive same-store sales growth (SSSG), with Puregold stores posting a 5.4% increase due to higher basket sizes, while S&R Warehouse Clubs recorded 12% growth on higher customer traffic.

“For the first quarter of 2026, the enterprise experienced positive SSSG of +5.4% from Puregold Stores driven by higher basket size and +12% from S&R Warehouse clubs driven by higher traffic,” the company said.

The company said first-quarter earnings growth was “driven by strong topline growth and complemented by improvement in gross margins.”

Gross profit rose by 15.1% to P11.8 billion, while gross margin improved to 20.1% from 19.6% a year ago.

Operating income climbed 20% to P4.77 billion from P3.97 billion previously.

Other operating income also increased by 7.8% to P977 million from P906 million.

Meanwhile, operating expenses went up 11.4% to P8.01 billion during the quarter.

Cost of sales increased by 11.4% to P46.98 billion from P42.16 billion a year ago.

Income tax expense rose 23.3% to P957 million.

As of end-March, Puregold operated 790 stores nationwide, consisting of 685 Puregold stores, 33 S&R Membership Shopping Warehouses, and 72 S&R New York Style quick-service restaurants.

The company’s board approved the first-quarter financial results during its regular meeting on May 7. — Alexandria Grace C. Magno

In a statement on Tuesday, the infrastructure conglomerate said contribution from operations rose 4%, supported primarily by higher generation output from its power business and increased patient volumes in its healthcare segment.

The company said lower water contribution partly offset these gains after the dilution of its ownership in Maynilad following the utility’s listing in November last year.

Reported net income declined year on year due to the absence of a one-time gain from the disposal of Philippine Coastal Storage and Pipeline Corp. booked in the prior year.

“Even in a more challenging environment, demand for essential services remains steady. Our priority is to keep our operations running reliably and continue serving the communities that depend on us,” MPIC Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Manuel V. Pangilinan said.

“We remain disciplined, managing our costs carefully, and making sure we deliver where it matters most. If we stay focused on execution and service, we are confident our businesses will remain resilient,” he added.

Power was MPIC’s largest contributor, accounting for P5.1 billion or 62% of net operating income (NOI). Water and toll roads contributed P1.5 billion and P1.4 billion, respectively, representing a combined 36% of NOI.

Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) posted a 2% increase in consolidated core net income to P11.4 billion, supported by stronger contributions from its power generation and other businesses.

Meralco’s revenues rose 5%, driven by higher pass-through charges, improved retail electricity sales, and stronger generation revenues following a 25% increase in energy delivered.

“Higher pass-through charges reflected elevated generation costs, primarily due to ERC-approved contract price adjustments relating to fuel cost recoveries and peso depreciation,” the company said.

Maynilad posted a 10% increase in core net income to P4 billion, driven by higher revenues and improved network efficiency.

Revenue rose 6% to P9.1 billion following a 3% tariff adjustment implemented in January and 2% growth in both connections and billed volume.

Non-revenue water improved to 32% from 34.9% following investments in leak detection, pipe replacement and network optimization.

Meanwhile, Metro Pacific Tollways Corp. reported flat core and reported net income as higher borrowing costs and depreciation offset gains from its increased ownership in NLEX Corp.

Toll revenues rose 14% to P9.9 billion, supported by tariff adjustments and traffic growth across the network.

Average daily vehicle entries increased 2% in the Philippines and 3% in Indonesia, while traffic volume in Vietnam declined 11%.

At the parent level, MPIC’s cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments rose to P9.4 billion as of end-March from P7.9 billion at end-2025, while net debt declined to P50 billion from P52.5 billion.

MPIC is one of the three key Philippine units of Hong Kong-based First Pacific Co. Ltd., alongside Philex Mining Corp. and PLDT Inc.

Hastings Holdings, Inc., a unit of PLDT Beneficial Trust Fund subsidiary MediaQuest Holdings, Inc., holds a majority stake in BusinessWorld through the Philippine Star Group, which it controls. — Alexandria Grace C. Magno

THE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) may resort to “more drastic” action to tame inflation as rising rice prices and transport fares threaten to de-anchor inflation expectations, a senior official said.

“If rice prices (and transport) fares contribute to increases in inflation expectations above the inflation target at some point in the future, it’s going to take more actions, more drastic actions from the central bank to help inflation expectations go back to the target,” BSP Deputy Governor Zeno Ronald R. Abenoja told a webinar on Thursday.

Mr. Abenoja said inflation expectations continue to drift away from the BSP’s target, with the trend expected to persist over the next three years.

“What we are worried about is that the three-year expectations of inflation is shifting consistently upward, and it could go away from the 3% target. So, that is one thing that we are closely watching,” he said.

“And what we are looking at is how fuel, energy, and food, particularly rice, are playing a role in this formation of these expectations in the next one, up to three years forward,” he added.

The BSP deputy governor also noted that rising food prices, especially rice, amid the ongoing energy crisis and the anticipated impact of climate shocks later this year will stoke Philippine inflation, which has accelerated since the war erupted.

In April, headline inflation quickened to an over three-year high of 7.2%, driven by high oil prices feeding into costs of food and utilities.

This was the second month in a row that inflation breached the BSP’s 2%-4% target and its monthly estimate. It had expected inflation to settle between 5.6% and 6.4% last month.

RISKS TILTED TO THE UPSIDE
In a report published late Wednesday, Oxford Economics said the Philippines will experience heavier inflationary pressures as rising food inflation spills over to related baskets such as food service.

“Within Asia, emerging markets are the most exposed due to high food CPI (consumer price index) weights and import dependence, particularly in the Philippines,” it said. “Risks to food inflation remain tilted to the upside from prolonged supply constraints, climate shocks, and a low-probability but high-impact tail risk of a repeat of the food export restrictions seen in 2022-2023.”

Philippine Statistics Authority data showed that the food and nonalcoholic beverages index has the highest share in the CPI basket, with 37.75% of the total.

Meanwhile, BSP’s Mr. Abenoja said central banks in the region face a delicate balancing act as they tighten monetary policy to tame inflation and steer it back toward target over the medium term.

He noted that failure to do so risks faster and steeper interest rate hikes, which pose greater risks to economic growth.

“If we can contain that spillover effect, then we will be doing our job to ensure that inflation will have an uptick in the near term, but over the medium term, it could go back to the target,” Mr. Abenoja said.

“If we lose that influence, if we lose that control, then it will take more actions later on. Interest rates will have to rise much faster and by bigger discrete amounts, and that will be more painful to economic growth,” he added.

Last month, the BSP delivered its first policy rate hike in over two years, raising key borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5%.

The rate hike, Mr. Abenoja said, was done as a preemptive measure to keep inflation expectations in check and prevent broader second-round effects.

The central bank said this week that it will take “all necessary monetary actions” to bring inflation back to its 3% target within a reasonable time.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. also earlier noted that the central bank is willing to lift interest rates as much as needed to curb inflation as he remained optimistic on the country’s growth outlook.   

ING Regional Head of Research for Asia-Pacific Deepali Bhargava said another round of tightening next month remains on the table despite the dismal first-quarter growth, with a potential 50-bp hike and an off-cycle move.

“I don’t think today’s GDP (gross domestic product) print will deter (the) BSP from proceeding with a rate hike in June,” she told a separate webinar. “The CPI upside surprise was really large and I think it kind of risks larger and faster rate moves by BSP.”

The Philippine GDP grew 2.8% in the first quarter of the year, the slowest print since the pandemic and below estimates.

Ms. Bhargava also said the peso’s sharp weakening since the war broke out strengthens the case for another hike before the Monetary Board’s June 18 review.

This as she noted that the local unit’s recent recovery is unlikely sustainable.

“And of course… there’s been a sharp depreciation, pressures on the PHP (Philippine peso) as well. So, that could mean that the rate hike would actually come in ahead of the next scheduled policy meeting,” Ms. Bhargava said.

The peso has traded above the P61-a-dollar level since April 28, even slumping to a new record-low close of P61.567 against the greenback on April 29.

UNCERTAIN JUNE HIKE
However, a second straight policy rate hike remains uncertain despite soaring inflation after the Philippine economy posted subpar growth in the first quarter, Pantheon Macroeconomics said.

In a report on Thursday, the United Kingdom-based think tank said the BSP could pause at its next meeting if May inflation turns softer, even as calls for further hikes gain steam.

“(W)e reckon that a second straight rate hike in June is no guarantee, especially once (the) Q1 GDP confirms that growth remains sub-par by historical standards, at best,” Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Emerging Asia Economist Miguel Chanco and Asia Economist Meekita Gupta said.

The Philippine GDP expanded to a new post-pandemic low of 2.8% in the first quarter of the year, slower than the 3% in the fourth quarter and the 5.4% a year ago.

“The Monetary Board will still have the May CPI report to digest before it meets, and this could be enough to stay its hand if we’re right about a less acute year-over-year acceleration and some signs of stability at the margin,” they added.

Still, Pantheon Macroeconomics raised its inflation forecast to 5.9% from 4.6% for this year.

Meanwhile, Moody’s Analytics said the Philippines’ heavy reliance on imported food, such as rice, leaves the country more exposed to trade disruptions and rising inflation across Southeast Asia.

“Reliance on imported food also plays a significant role across economies within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The Philippines stands out as one of the more vulnerable economies in this part of Asia,” Moody’s Analytics Senior Director Gaurav Ganguly, Associate Directors and Senior Economists Stefan Angrick and Denise Cheok said in an analysis.

The think tank added the Middle East war could slash 0.1 to 0.4 percentage point off Asia-Pacific’s growth, with countries like the Philippines also experiencing slower tourism.   

“In addition to the direct energy effects, tourism also takes a hit, doing more damage in tourism-dependent economies such as Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines,” it said.

THE National Government (NG) debt as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) rose to 65.2% at the end of the first quarter, the highest ratio since 2005, data from the Bureau of the Treasury showed.

The increase came as outstanding debt climbed by 1.8% to P18.49 trillion as of end-March from P18.16 trillion at the end of February, while economic growth slowed sharply.

Philippine GDP expanded by 2.8% in the first three months of 2026, the weakest pace since the pandemic, as the oil shock dampens consumer spending and stokes inflation.

Based on available data, the debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of March was the highest since 65.7% recorded in 2005. The debt-to-GDP ratio climbed to 63.2% at the end of 2025.

This is also above the 60% debt-to-GDP threshold considered by multilateral lenders to be manageable for developing economies.

“The recent uptick in NG debt partly reflects currency valuation effects rather than a sharp slippage in fiscal fundamentals as peso depreciation mechanically raises the peso value of foreign-currency obligations,” said Union Bank of the Philippines Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion in a Viber message.

“While peso weakness could continue to put some upward pressure on headline debt figures amid global and geopolitical uncertainties, the impact should remain manageable given the government’s reliance on domestic, peso-denominated borrowing,” he added.

The peso closed P60.748 against the dollar on March 31, weakening by P3.083 from its P57.665 close on Feb. 27.

Domestic borrowings continue to account for the bulk of the debt stock, or 67.8%, while the rest came from external sources.

Domestic debt inched up by 0.44% to P12.53 trillion at end-March from P12.48 trillion at end-February, while external debt jumped by 4.81% to P5.95 trillion from P5.68 trillion.

“Even if most borrowing is domestic, peso depreciation will keep putting upward pressure on the debt stock as long as the West Asia situation and global financial uncertainty keep the dollar strong,” Jose Enrique “Sonny” A. Africa, executive director of the think tank IBON Foundation, said in a Viber message.

He added that the pressure on debt and prices would persist as long as the Philippines remains heavily dependent on imports for fuel, food, and other consumer, intermediate and capital goods.

The local currency hit a record low of P61.567 on April 29.

To cushion the impact of the Middle East war on consumers, the government suspended excise taxes on liquefied petroleum gas and kerosene, while also rolling out subsidies and fuel discounts for vulnerable sectors.

Inflation accelerated to 7.2% in April, sharply faster than the 4.1% in March and 1.4% in the same month last year.

“The problem is not simply that NG debt is rising but how the government will create fiscal space needed to protect millions of poor and vulnerable Filipino households while also stabilizing the economy,” said Mr. Africa.

“The debt-to-GDP ratio will just get worse as growth slows and make the government’s fiscal conservatism ossify even further,” he added.

Mr. Africa said the government has to take a broader view of debt sustainability.

“This is not achieved by cutting support during a crisis but by using public finance to give relief, support livelihoods, and stabilize the economy,” he added.

The NG’s outstanding debt is projected to reach P19.06 trillion by end-2026 under the Budget of Expenditures and Sources of Financing 2026.

The government seeks to bring down the debt-to-GDP ratio to 58% by 2030.

THE Philippine economy grew by a weaker-than-expected 2.8% in the first quarter, the slowest pace since the pandemic, as the fallout from a corruption scandal and soaring oil prices triggered by the Middle East conflict dampened economic activity.

Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 2.8% in the January-to-March period, significantly slower than the 5.4% expansion in the same quarter last year.

This was also well-below the 3.4% median forecast of 21 economists in a BusinessWorld poll last week, and slower than the revised 3% GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025.

On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP expanded by 0.93%, from 0.6% in the previous quarter.

The Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) said the impact of the Middle East war, compounded by lingering effects of last year’s corruption scandal and delays in the release of the 2026 national budget, weighed on economic growth in the first three months.

“We recognize that this outcome reflects the combined impact of significant domestic and global challenges,” said DEPDev Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan.

“The conflict in the Middle East, which escalated toward the end of February, triggered higher global oil prices and renewed supply chain pressures, creating additional risks for oil-importing economies such as the Philippines,” he added.

The first-quarter print was the weakest since the 3.8% contraction in the first quarter in 2021. Excluding the pandemic, it was the slowest pace since the 1.8% growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2009.

“Among our neighboring economies in Asia that have released their first-quarter GDP figures, our growth performance trails Vietnam, Indonesia, and China, among others in the region,” Mr. Balisacan said.

The Development Budget Coordination Committee would meet by Monday next week to review its macroeconomic assumptions, he said.

“We don’t expect to achieve the kind of growth that we expected to happen a year ago, given recent developments, and we will adjust accordingly,” he said. “(W)e definitely will move our growth targets lower.”

The first-quarter GDP was well below the government’s target range of 5-6% for the year.

Mr. Balisacan said the growth outlook would largely depend on developments in the Middle East conflict, expressing hope that oil prices would continue to ease.

“But we do know already that even as the Middle East conflict ends today, the lingering effects of the oil prices and the supply chain disruptions will persist in the coming months.”

SLUGGISH CONSUMPTION
The downtrend in household spending continued in the first quarter.

Household final consumption expenditure — a key driver of the economy — grew by 3% annually, slowing from the 5.28% print in the same quarter last year and 3.8% in the previous quarter.

This was the weakest pace since the 4.8% contraction in the first quarter of 2021. Excluding the pandemic, this was the slowest growth in consumption since the 2.6% in the third quarter of 2010.

Mr. Balisacan said the lingering effects of the corruption scandal continued to weigh on consumer and business sentiment.

“But I think that we are gradually moving out of that situation. The administration has initiated many reforms toward establishing accountability and transparency in government programs,” he said.

National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa said inflation has historically been a major factor behind slower household consumption.

Inflation averaged 2.8% in the first three months of the year, amid faster price increases in fuel, electricity, and food.

Government spending grew by 4.8% in the first quarter, much slower than the 18.7% a year ago but faster than 0.7% in the fourth quarter.

Jun Hao Ng, assistant economist at Oxford Economics, said the rise in government spending points to a recovery after the corruption scandal.

“We expect government spending and project implementation to accelerate in the coming months as agencies operationalize their catch-up programs,” Mr. Balisacan said.

Gross capital formation, the investment component of the economy, contracted by 3.3% in the first quarter, from 4.5% a year ago. However, it was an improvement from the 9.4% decline in the fourth quarter.

The PSA said this was mainly due to the 2.8% decline in construction, which in turn was driven by the 31.5% drop in government construction.

“A breakdown of the data shows the main cause of the weakness was, once again, the flood control corruption scandal,” Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics, said in a commentary.

He noted construction has dropped for a third consecutive quarter or since President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. announced a crackdown on anomalous flood control projects in his State of the Nation Address last July.

Mr. Ng said that the contraction in investment “suggests the recovery was slow even prior to the war, which would have hit sentiment further.”

Mr. Balisacan said the government’s policy thrust right now is to regain the confidence of consumers and the business sector.

Exports of goods and services rose by 7.8% in the period ending March from 7.1% a year ago, while imports of goods and services grew by 6.1%, slowing from the 10.3% growth a year ago.

WEAK SERVICES
By major economic sector, services, which accounted for 63.2% of total GDP, grew by 4.5% in the first quarter. However, this was slower than 6.2% a year ago.

Chinabank Research said services posted its weakest performance since the pandemic, although the highest growth came from public administration, education, and health. “Reduced discretionary spending will likely continue to weigh on services activity, particularly in retail trade, transportation, accommodation, food services, and recreation,” it said.

Agriculture, forestry and fishing, which contributed 8.1% to GDP, shrank by 0.2% in the first quarter. This was a reversal of 2.2% growth a year ago.

Industry, which accounted for 28.7% of GDP, contracted by 0.1% in the January to March period. This was a reversal of last year’s 4.6% growth.

Gross national income posted an annual 3% growth in the first quarter, decelerating from 7.2% a year ago and 4% in the fourth quarter.

At the same time net primary income grew by 4.5% in the first quarter, slower than 22.2% in the same quarter in 2025 and 11.9% in the previous quarter

STAGFLATION
Meanwhile, Mr. Balisacan said that the country is still not experiencing stagflation despite slowing GDP growth, 7.2% inflation in April and 5% jobless rate in March.

“I do not see it that way. Stagflation, in your standard textbooks, should be thought of as the presence of three things simultaneously. One is high inflation, where the prices keep rising. The other one is slow or stagnant economic growth, and the third is high unemployment,” he said.

“I think before the onset of the crisis, we are seeing improvements in the economy,” he added.

However, some analysts said that the country is already facing stagflation which is likely to persist throughout the year.

“The Philippines is going through a period of stagflation, with a combination of slowing (and very weak) GDP growth and rising inflation placing the central bank in an unenviable position,” Mr. Leather said.

“The Philippines is facing a twin-crisis squeeze, with economic growth already weakened by the flood control controversy and now further strained by surging oil and food prices, as we face a stagflation scenario — high inflation alongside weak growth,” Chinabank said.

Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa, chief economist, Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. said that the economy had been losing momentum even before the corruption probe and the Middle East conflict on “private underinvestment and a buildup in household debt.”

“Growth in the coming quarters will be challenged even further as inflation surges and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will be hard pressed to hike rates,” he said.

“How much policy tightening can do to ease global oil prices is still in question, but what is clear is that the economy will be facing an uphill battle even if National Government  can still improve in the second half,” he added.

Deepali Bhargava, regional head of research for Asia-Pacific at ING, said that the first quarter print “points to a much weaker-than-expected growth trajectory for 2026.”

“We do not believe this weak GDP print will deter the BSP from proceeding with a rate hike in June,” she said via e-mail.

The BSP signaled more rate hikes to keep inflation in check amid rising price pressures after the April print exceeded its estimate. Last month, the BSP delivered its first 25-basis-point rate hike in two and a half years to bring the benchmark policy rate to 4.5%.

ANZ Research Chief Economist Sanjay Mathur and Foreign Exchange Analyst Kausani Basak said that the Philippine economy remains in a challenging position amid elevated inflation, weak growth and persistent external headwinds.

“Overall, risks to near-term growth remain skewed to the downside, particularly if inflation stays elevated or global geopolitical conditions deteriorate,” they said in a report.

The outbreak of hantavirus on board the cruise ship MV Hondius is unlikely to become an epidemic, the World Health Organization announced today.

In a press briefing, a panel of WHO scientists sought to quell worldwide fears over the outbreak and reassure the public that we aren’t about to see a repeat of the covid-19 pandemic. The panel also said it intended to stay until all journalists’ questions were answered and expressly stated that it was important that people not be alarmed by the cluster on the ship.

“This is not covid; this is not influenza,” said WHO scientist Maria Van Kerkhove at the briefing. “This is not the start of an epidemic; this is not the start of a pandemic.”

So far, there have been five confirmed cases of hantavirus and three more suspected cases. Three of those who fell ill have died.

Two patients in hospital in the Netherlands and a person in intensive care in South Africa are all reported to be improving, the WHO said.

Hantaviruses are a group of viruses carried by rodents that can cause severe disease in humans. People usually get infected through contact with infected rodents or their urine, droppings or saliva.

Tests in South Africa carried out on two passengers from the ship have identified the pathogen as Andes virus, the only known hantavirus that can spread from human to human.

It is also one of the hantaviruses known to cause a severe illness in humans called hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome, with a mortality rate of up to 50 per cent.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director general of the WHO, said in a press briefing that because the incubation period of the virus is six weeks, it is possible more cases will be reported in coming weeks

However, the public health risks remain low because the virus requires close physical contact to transmit between people, and careful contact tracing and international cooperation will break the chain of transmission, said Ghebreyesus.

So far, every nation called on to assist in managing the crisis has cooperated fully, he said.

“There’s no need to panic the entire population,” said Abdirahman Mahamud, also at the WHO.

He said only symptomatic, infected people should be isolated. Those who may have been exposed to the virus will only require “active monitoring”.

Mahamud said the current situation is most analogous to an outbreak of Andes virus in Argentina between November 2018 and February 2019 that infected 34 people and caused 11 deaths. That began at a birthday party with approximately 100 guests. While the outbreak was serious, the virus didn’t go on to spread widely in the community.

“The main concern is the possibility of limited person-to-person transmission,” Luis Marcos at Stony Brook Medicine in New York state tells New Scientist. “However, such transmission appears to be inefficient and can typically be managed with standard isolation and quarantine precautions.”

“Overall, the risk of widespread transmission remains low, and the current level of concern may be greater than warranted,” he says.

Marcos suspects a maximum of 10 to 15 people who were on the cruise will end up being infected. Quarantine of people from the cruise will be enough, he says, and there is “no pandemic potential at all”.

Luis Escobar at Virginia Tech warns that the threat posed by hantaviruses should be taken seriously. “I believe hantavirus has pandemic risk, especially hantavirus causing respiratory syndromes,” he says.

He and his team published a study in 2025 reporting that there were more hosts of the virus than previously known. They analysed over 14,000 blood samples for hantavirus from 49 species at 45 field sites, finding 296 positive samples across 15 rodent species, including six new species not previously reported as hosts. The team identified Colorado, Virginia and Texas as particular hotspots for the virus.

However, Escobar believes the public health measures being taken will mitigate the pandemic risk from the current outbreak.

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iam8bit

Iam8bit’s in-house music group, the Blueshift Big Band, has put together another franchise-specific record with the Persona 30th Anniversary Jazz Album, and pre-orders are live now through June 1. The Persona 30th Anniversary Jazz Album comes in three flavors: a Translucent Purple vinyl exclusive to FYE, or a Blue Butterfly or classic black version from iam8bit and other stores. The purple FYE exclusive costs $40, while the other two cost $32, and copies will start shipping out in the final quarter of 2026.

All versions carry the same eight reimagined songs from the series’ storied history, including “Heaven,” “Last Surprise” and “Aria of the Soul.” You can stream the full album from your preferred service right here, right now.

The album features art by award-winning illustrator Mark Borgions, whose work is filled with mid-century magic. He also does the visuals on the Blueshift Big Band’s other albums in the Joystick Jazz series, which presents big-band covers of popular video game songs. There are three Joystick Jazz records and one EP. The first two volumes feature jazzified tracks from The Legend of Zelda: The Ocarina of Time, Grim Fandango, Kingdom Hearts 3 and other classics, while the third full album is Mario-specific. The Bonus Level vinyl has four songs from Pokémon, Final Fantasy, Sonic the Hedgehog, and DuckTales.

Sega and Atlus are celebrating Persona’s 30th birthday in various ways this year, including pop-ups at conventions and, fittingly, a big-band concert tour across Asia in the summer (unrelated to iam8bit’s efforts). The next mainline Persona game is still in development with no release date in sight. Persona 4 Revival is also in production and hotly anticipated by longtime series fans (like 30 years long), and it’s potentially, maybe targeting a release window of late 2026 to early 2027.

As always, iam8bit has a large collection of Persona vinyl and lots of other video game treasures for sale, no waiting necessary.

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Hayley Williams is still on her Hayley Williams at a Bachelorette Party Tour but she already has plans for a new one. Her next run, “The Hayley Williams Show,” is set to launch in September and will take the Paramore singer across both North and South America. Magdalena Bay, Rico Nasty, and Annie DiRusso will support on select dates. A full itinerary, including previously announced shows, can be found below.

Williams released her third solo album, Ego Death at a Bachelorette Party, in 2025. Two years before that, Paramore released their most-recent album, This Is Why, and followed it up with a North American tour.

Revisit our 2020 review of Williams’ Petals for Armor.

Hayley Williams: “The Hayley Williams Show” 2026 Tour

Hayley Williams Tour 2026:
05-09 Oakland, CA – Fox Theater *
05-10 Oakland, CA – Fox Theater *
05-12 Los Angeles, CA – The Wiltern *
05-13 Los Angeles, CA – The Wiltern *
05-15 Los Angeles, CA – The Wiltern *
06-05 Milan, Italy – Alcatraz @
06-09 Amsterdam, Netherlands – Paradiso *
06-10 Cologne, Germany – Live Music Hall @
06-11 Cologne, Germany – Live Music Hall @
06-15 Berlin, Germany – Tempodrom *
06-16 Copenhagen, Denmark – Poolen *
06-19 London, England – Roundhouse *&
06-20 London, England – Roundhouse *&
06-22 Manchester, England – Manchester Academy *
06-23 Manchester, England – Manchester Academy *
06-26 Glasgow, Scotland – O2 Academy Glasgow *
06-27 Glasgow, Scotland – O2 Academy Glasgow *
06-29 Dublin, Ireland – National Stadium *
06-30 Dublin, Ireland – National Stadium *
09-03 iTHINK Financial Amphitheatre – West Palm Beach, FL=
09-05 Ameris Bank Amphitheatre – Atlanta, GA=
09-06 Credit One Stadium – Charleston, SC=
09-08 Truliant Amphitheater – Charlotte, NC=
09-09 Coastal Credit Union Music Park at Walnut Creek – Raleigh, NC=
09-11 Xfinity Center – Boston, MA=
09-12 Albany Med Health System at SPAC – Saratoga Springs, NY=
09-14 BankNH Pavilion – Gilford, NH=
09-16 Forest Hills Stadium – Queens, NY
09-17 Forest Hills Stadium – Queens, NY=
09-19 Pine Knob Music Theatre – Detroit, MI=
09-23 Riverbend Music Center – Cincinnati, OH=
09-24 Credit Union 1 Amphitheatre – Tinley Park, IL=
09-26 Merriweather Post Pavilion (All Things Go Music Festival)- Columbia, MD
09-30 White River Amphitheatre – Seattle, WA=
10-02 Shoreline Amphitheatre – Mountain View, CA=
10-03 North Island Credit Union Amphitheatre – San Diego, CA=
10-05 Hollywood Bowl – Los Angeles, CA =
10-06 Hollywood Bowl – Los Angeles, CA=
10-09 The Cynthia Woods Mitchell Pavilion Sponsored by Huntsman – Houston, TX=
10-10 Champions Square – New Orleans, LA=
10-12 Bank Plus Amphitheater at Snowden Grove – Southaven, MS=
11-06 Movistar Arena – Bogotá, Colombia %
11-10 Qualistage – Rio de Janeiro, Brazil %
11-12 Espaço Unimed – São Paulo, Brazil  %
11-13 Espaço Unimed – São Paulo, Brazil %
11-15 Parque Sarmiento – Buenos Aires, Argentina %
11-18 Movistar Arena – Santiago, Chile %
11-20 Costa 21 – Lima, Peru %
11-23 Auditorio Nacional – Mexico City, MX %
11-27 Coca-Cola Music Hall – San Juan, Puerto Rico %

* with Water From Your Eyes
@ with Snuggle
& with Tiberius B
= w/ Magdalena Bay and Rico Nasty
% w/ Annie DiRusso

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Marc Rowan, chief executive officer of Apollo Global Management LLC, speaks during an interview on an episode of Bloomberg Wealth with David Rubenstein in New York, April 5, 2022.

Jeenah Moon | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan on Wednesday warned investors that he is preparing his giant asset management firm for a potential market downturn and sharply criticized what he called the “egregious” practices of some rival insurers.

The current solid economic backdrop — which helped Apollo report a banner quarter, in which the firm reached $1 trillion in assets under management and record fee-related earnings — is masking a growing risk of what he called “out of the box” shocks.

“Everything we see in front of us is actually quite strong,” Rowan said. But there is “a much greater chance, in our opinion, of out-of-sideline results.”

Rowan, who co-founded Apollo in 1990 and oversaw its transformation into an alternative asset and insurance giant, said he is now more concerned about outside factors derailing the economy than at any time in his four decades on Wall Street.

His comments, which come as the U.S. stock market is trading near record highs, add to concerns voiced by financial executives including JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon.

Rowan put the odds of an exogenous shock at somewhere between 30% and 35%, far higher than the usual level of risk, he said.

A convergence of forces could destabilize markets, according to Rowan, including a “total geopolitical reset,” policies that could prove inflationary by restricting labor and trade, and the sweeping artificial intelligence cycle reshaping jobs and economic growth.

“Almost everything we’re doing, whether intentional or not, has the potential to be inflationary,” Rowan said, an apparent reference to President Donald Trump’s tariff and U.S. immigration policies.

“Restricting the supply of goods, restricting the supply of labor and the free movement of goods and labor — maybe for good and valid reasons that need to be done — are all inflationary in the short term, even if we are not seeing signs of it,” he said.

On AI, Rowan predicted socioeconomic upheaval: “Almost every job will be enhanced or replaced. We’re going to see a complete flip — blue-collar ascendancy and white-collar stress.”

The balance sheets of companies and consumers remain strong, while governments’ finances are strained, he added.

Contagion fears

While Apollo is experiencing robust results today, Rowan said, he is preparing for choppier times ahead.

The firm has moved up the credit quality of its fixed-income investments, cut exposure to riskier sectors such as software, and stockpiled about $40 billion of cash in its insurance business.

“It means we’re investing with an eye toward protecting our capital and making sure that we are here to ride through cycles if there are corrections, which we quite frankly expect,” Rowan said.

But Rowan — who transformed Apollo by expanding into insurance in 2009 through Athene, a seller of annuities and retirement products — reserved his sharpest remarks for other insurers. The insurance business provides Apollo with a large, stable pool of capital to invest, akin to the insurance “float” model popularized by Berkshire Hathaway, and is now central to its strategy.

“Not everyone in our industry is doing what they should do. Not everyone runs their business the way we have run our business,” Rowan said. “We do worry about contagion.”

Contagion would mean that stress spreads through the industry, raising the risk that regulators or central banks have to intervene to protect insurance and retirement customers.

Rowan did not name specific firms that he thought were acting badly.

But he suggested some insurers are relying on what he called “egregious” practices — including offshore Cayman structures, complex collateralized loans and aggressive credit assumptions — that could make some balance sheets look stronger than they are.

“What we can do is be transparent, be committed to higher ratings, build our capital and run the business for the long term,” Rowan said.

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In a statement on Wednesday, the company said consolidated revenues rose 9.1% to P22.78 billion, while gross profit increased 8.3% to P7.1 billion.

“Our APAC BFB business delivered robust topline growth in the first quarter, supported by volume growth across all categories. We are encouraged by the sequential improvement in gross margin, despite ongoing inflationary pressures,” Monde Nissin Chief Executive Officer Henry Soesanto said.

The company’s Asia-Pacific branded food and beverage (APAC BFB) business posted net sales of P19.1 billion, up 8.6% from a year earlier.

Domestic sales rose 9.5% to P18.1 billion, while international sales declined 5.1%.

Monde Nissin said pricing actions and cost management initiatives helped offset higher input costs.

Revenue from meat alternatives under Quorn Foods grew 1.4% in constant currency terms and 11.7% on a reported basis due to currency effects.

Gross profit for the segment rose 54.4% to P1.2 billion, while gross margin improved to 31.8%.

Reported net income climbed 34.1% to P3.7 billion, supported by a P210-million non-cash fair value gain on the meat alternative guaranty asset and foreign exchange gains.

“Despite a strong start to the year, we remain mindful of ongoing uncertainties and inflationary headwinds. We will continue to manage the business prudently, while remaining sensitive to our consumers when price adjustments are necessary,” Mr. Soesanto said.

As of end-March 2026, Monde Nissin had P16.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents, while outstanding debt stood at P1.7 billion.

At the stock exchange on Wednesday, Monde Nissin shares rose 2.29% to close at P6.71 apiece. — Alexandria Grace C. Magno

“The initial plan was to list very, very soon. But due to the issues we see in the market, we may potentially have to push it back,” LT Group President and Chief Operating Officer Lucio C. Tan III said during a media briefing on Wednesday.

The conglomerate also said it is reassessing plans to increase capital expenditures this year as uncertainty linked to rising oil prices and global tensions weighs on the business environment.

“Going forward, we were probably expecting a bit more, but in light of everything that’s happening, it’s currently being reviewed, so we may go back to our historical numbers,” LT Group Chief Financial Officer Jose Gabriel D. Olives said.

He said annual capital expenditures have ranged between P6 billion and P8 billion over the past five years.

Mr. Tan said LT Group remains optimistic about its long-term growth prospects despite macroeconomic risks.

“We’re still excited about the growth for LTG as a whole. We are mindful of a lot of the challenges that we have, but we’re confident that we can address all of those,” he said.

The conglomerate reported an attributable net income of P30.98 billion for 2025, up 7% and marking its fourth consecutive year of record earnings. Revenues reached P132.78 billion.

Philippine National Bank (PNB) contributed P14.26 billion, or 46% of total attributable income. The bank’s net income rose 20% to P25.34 billion.

Fortune Tobacco Corp. and PMFTC contributed a combined P11.24 billion, accounting for 36% of group income.

Tanduay Distillers posted a 45% increase in net income to P3.12 billion, while Asia Brewery reported P877 million in net income.

Eton Properties Philippines, Inc. posted P765 million in net income after real estate sales rose 46% to P731 million.

LT Group shares rose 0.53% to close at P15.20 apiece on Wednesday. — Alexandria Grace C. Magno

In a statement on Wednesday, the company said the mall has a gross floor area of 100,000 square meters (sq.m.) and a gross leasable area of 61,000 sq.m.

The development is located within Arca South, one of Ayala Land’s growth estates in Taguig, and is expected to serve residents, office workers, and transit users in the area.

Ayala Land said the project forms part of its broader push to increase the share of stable and predictable revenues in its portfolio amid a more measured property sales environment.

“At Ayala Malls, we design for frequency and habit,” Ayala Malls Chief Operating Officer Paul Birkett said.

“The more a space becomes part of everyday life, the more it supports consistent customer flow and stronger merchant performance over time,” he added.

The company said the mall is intended to support long-term commercial activity within the estate while reinforcing surrounding residential and office developments.

Ayala Land said integrating retail developments early into the estate’s development cycle is intended to accelerate business activity and establish long-term consumption patterns that could support stable rental yields.

The mall features an open and mixed-format retail layout, diverging from the traditional enclosed mall format.

Ayala Land also said the project may serve as a prototype for future retail developments as the company shifts toward more flexible and community-integrated retail formats focused on long-term income generation.

Shares in Ayala Land rose by 0.13% or 2 centavos to close at P15.32 on Wednesday. — Juliana Chloe A. Gonzales

THE Philippine unemployment rate in March rose to 5%, as the number of jobless Filipinos jumped to 2.58 million amid the oil crisis, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said.

Preliminary results from the March 2026 Labor Force Survey released on Wednesday showed the jobless rate stood at 5% in March, much higher than the 3.9% in the same month a year ago but slightly better than the 5.1% in February.

“The unemployment rate stood at 5% which means 50 out of 1,000 individuals in the labor force did not have jobs or any business in March 2026,” National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa said in a briefing.

PSA data showed the number of unemployed Filipinos stood at 2.58 million in March, up by 645,000 from 1.93 million a year earlier, but fell by 84,000 from the 2.66 million recorded in February.

Mr. Mapa said the oil crisis has put pressure on the labor market, particularly in some sectors such as fishing and aquaculture. He said they are closely monitoring whether the oil price shocks will spill over to other sectors.

“We want to check whether the external shock on fuel and energy will spread to the other sub-sectors… It is not yet conclusive if the effects will spread. We have to wait for the April round to see if it will spread,” he said.

For the first three months, the unemployment rate averaged 5.3%, higher than the 4% average a year ago.

“Compared to its Asian peers, the Philippines’ unemployment rate is lower than that of China (5.4%) and India (5.1%), but higher than Malaysia’s (2.9%) and Vietnam’s (2.2%),” the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development  said in a statement.

JOB QUALITY
Meanwhile, job quality improved as the underemployment rate fell to 12.3% in March, from 13.4% in the same month last year. However, it was higher than the 11.8% in February.

The ranks of underemployed Filipinos — those who want longer work hours or an additional job — rose by 192,000 year on year to 6.03 million in March.

Year to date, the average underemployment stood at 12.4%.

The country’s employment rate stood at 95%, lower than the 96.1% in March 2025, but slightly higher than the 94.9% posted in February.

This translated to 49.07 million employed persons in March, up by 1.05 million from the 48.02 million a year ago.

Month on month, the number of employed individuals fell by 357,000 from the 49.43 million in February.

“In March, there was a spike in fuel prices, so the number of employed fell month on month to 357,000… The decline came from fishing and aquaculture which were affected by high diesel costs,” Mr. Mapa said.

The employment rate averaged 94.7% in the January to March period.

Data from the PSA showed the labor force participation rate (LFPR) — the proportion of the working-age population (15 years old and over) that is part of the total labor force — inched up to 63.3% in March. This translated to a labor force of 51.65 million Filipinos during the month.

This was higher than the LFPR of 62.9%, equivalent to a labor force of 49.95 million a year ago. However, this was lower than the LFPR of 63.8%, equivalent to 52.09 million, in February.

Year to date, the LFPR averaged 63.1%.

Mr. Mapa said the month-on-month decline in the participation rate was primarily due to some individuals choosing to focus on schooling (394,000) and household family duties (142,000) rather than seeking work. He said others also felt there is no work available (34,000).

Data showed fishing and aquaculture had the biggest year-on-year decline in jobs in March, as it shed 189,000 jobs.

Mr. Mapa said manufacturing jobs fell by 149,000, mainly in the semiconductor and electronics industry, and fruits and vegetable processing.

Arts, entertainment and recreation jobs declined by 147,000, reflecting job losses in gambling and betting activities, amusement parks and other sports activities.

Month on month, industries that saw the biggest drop in employment include fishing and aquaculture (-420,000); other office activities (-299,000); manufacturing (-217,000); human health and social work activities (-154,000); and financial and insurance activities (-116,000).

On the other hand, the biggest year-on-year increase in jobs was in transportation and storage, which added 507,000 jobs.

“Administrative and support service activities also added 458,000 jobs to 3.02 million. The number of employed increased in call center activities, voice, back office operation activities, non voice and temporary employment agency activities,” Mr. Mapa said.

Month on month, jobs in agriculture and fisheries increased by 486,000 to 8.38 million, followed by construction (184,000) and education (142,000).

In March, the services sector continued to hold the largest share of employment at 63% followed by agriculture at 19.1% and industry at 17.9%.

OUTLOOK
In a statement, Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said that the government is moving to fast-track support for the labor market to counter the negative effects of global shocks on the cost of essential goods.

“We commit to tightening the delivery of targeted assistance, such as fuel subsidies and service contracting for transport workers, farmers, and fisherfolk to improve alignment and expedite implementation,” Mr. Balisacan said.

In a note, Chinabank Research said employment data indicates that the labor market generally remained “stable” in March despite the Middle East conflict and “heightened domestic fragilities.”

“This provides some optimism that the conflict has not led to a substantial deterioration of economic activity. However, weakening business sentiment — as reflected in the BSP’s latest survey — and the decisions of some firms to temper expansion plans remain risks, potentially leading to a slowdown in hiring and eventually job losses,” Chinabank said.

Chinabank said it expects more job losses in the manufacturing sector in April as “higher input costs led manufacturing firms to scale back their staffing levels.”

University of the Philippines Diliman School of Labor and Industrial Relations Assistant Professor Benjamin B. Velasco said workers are dealing with high inflation and a shortage in quality jobs.

“Fishing and manufacturing are shedding jobs whether month on month or year on year. With El Niño on the horizon and the global economy stagnant, the climate- and supply chain-dependent sectors are very vulnerable,” he told BusinessWorld.

“The ongoing US-Israel war on Iran continues to disrupt the labor market with land-based OFWs being repatriated and Filipino seafarers caught in the crossfire. Moreover, double-digit underemployment accompanies higher unemployment, signaling the dearth of quality employment opportunities,” Mr. Velasco added.

Federation of Free Workers President Jose Sonny G. Matula said in a Viber message that the government should consider a “New Deal”-style approach, expanding public works, housing, and infrastructure programs to create jobs during periods of weak private-sector demand.

Mr. Matula said wage increases and large-scale infrastructure projects not only provide employment but also boost household spending, helping stimulate broader economic activity and strengthen the domestic economy.

THE Philippines’ agricultural production shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of the year, due to a decline in crop and fisheries output, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said.

Data from the PSA showed the value of production in agriculture and fisheries at constant 2018 prices declined to P437.52 billion in the January to March period, from P438.65 billion in the same period last year.

This was a reversal of the 2.1% growth in farm output in the first quarter of 2025, and the 0.8% expansion in the fourth quarter.

This was also the first drop in output since the 1.9% contraction in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Declines in crops (-2.4%) and fisheries (-6.1%) outweighed gains in poultry (7.1%) and livestock (5.1%), dragging down the farm sector’s overall performance during the first quarter.

“The decline was driven by weaker crop and fisheries output, underscoring the sector’s vulnerability to weather disruptions and price volatility,” the Department of Agriculture (DA) said in a statement on Wednesday.

The agency attributed the weak performance to the drop in rice production, lingering impact of typhoon disruptions late last year, and softer farmgate prices, which discouraged farmers from expanding production.

At current prices, the value of production in agriculture and fisheries also fell by 2.4% year on year to P607.22 billion in the first quarter from P622.06 billion previously.

CROPS, FISHERIES
Crop output, which accounted for 55.7% of the total value of agricultural production, shrank by 2.4% year on year to P243.62 billion in the first quarter. This was a reversal from the 1% growth in the same period in 2025, but slightly better than the 2.6% contraction in the fourth quarter.

Palay (unmilled rice) production, which accounted for almost 20% of total farm output, contracted by 6.3%, a reversal from the 0.3% growth in the same quarter last year.

The PSA earlier reported that first-quarter palay production dropped by 6.26% to a six-year low of 4.4 million metric tons.

Corn production also went down by 5.5% in the first quarter, slightly worse than the 5.1% drop a year ago.

Declines in output were also recorded in banana (-2.7%) and sugarcane (-8%).

Meanwhile, coconut registered a 1.4% year-on-year increase in the first quarter, an improvement from a 0.3% contraction in 2025.

Double-digit production growth was seen in tobacco (41.6%), monggo (mung bean, 37.9%), ampalaya (bitter gourd, 19.1%), potato (12.4%), and cacao (11.7%).

Output growth was also recorded in onion (6.6%), rubber (5.9%), and tomato (5.5%).

Raul Q. Montemayor, national manager of the Federation of Free Farmers, told BusinessWorld that the decline in agricultural output can be attributed to lower rice output.

“The palay harvested in the first quarter of 2026 was planted in the last quarter of 2025, during which time palay prices were severely depressed. This discouraged many farmers from maintaining or expanding their production,” he said via Viber.

Mr. Montemayor said the production decline in major cash crops, such as corn, banana, and sugarcane, further dragged overall crop output.

Former Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar also told BusinessWorld via Viber that irrigation disruption late last year in major producing areas in Central Luzon also affected farm productivity.

Analysts earlier estimated that damage to a section of the Upper Pampanga River Integrated Irrigation Systems in Nueva Ecija affected about 30,000 to 40,000 hectares of farmland.

Meanwhile, fisheries output, which accounted for 12% of overall production, also contracted by 6.1% year on year to P52.34 billion in the first quarter. This was the biggest annual decline since the 6.7% contraction in the fourth quarter of 2022.

A drop in output was seen in major fishery commodities such as milkfish (-4.9%), tilapia (-2.4%), skipjack (gulyasan, -8.7%), and tiger prawn (sugpo, -2.8%).

Double-digit declines were also recorded in seaweed (-34%), mudcrab (alimango, -31.7%), big-eyed scad (matangbaka, -24.9%), blue crab (alimasag, -23.6%), yellowfin tuna (tambakol, 13.6%), and indian mackerel (alumahan, -12.9%).

Meanwhile, market staple galunggong (roundscad) increased by 48.6%. Output growth was also recorded in fimbriated sardines (tunsoy, 44.7%), bigeye tuna (tambakol, 16.7%), threadfin brim (bisugo, 12%), and grouper (lapulapu, 8.2%).

Mr. Dar said the decline in fisheries could be attributed to reduced catch due to overfishing.

Jayson H. Cainglet, executive director of the Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura, said smallcale fishers, who make up the majority of the sector, are also facing increasing competition from commercial fishers.

“The fisheries sector continues to weaken following policy changes that allowed commercial vessels into the 15-kilometer municipal waters, undermining small fishers and accelerating resource pressure,” he told BusinessWorld via Viber.

In 2024, the Supreme Court upheld a 2023 Malabon Court ruling, which struck down key provisions of the Fisheries Code, including municipal fishers’ preferential access to the 15-kilometer municipal waters.

POULTRY, LIVESTOCK GAINS
Meanwhile, the poultry sector, which accounted for 18.5% of total farm output, jumped by an annual 7.1% in the first quarter to P80.83 billion. The sector’s output growth slowed from the 9.8% rise in the first quarter of 2025.

Chicken production, which accounts for 12.7% of total farm output, recorded an annual gain of 5.8% by value.

Output growth was also seen in chicken eggs (10.6%), duck eggs(3.5%), and duck (2.9%).

Agriculture Assistant Secretary for Swine and Poultry Michael J. Garcia said the growth in poultry is likely driven by new entrants in the market.

“There are a lot of investors in the poultry sector. There is still unserved demand for poultry, and including chicken egg, it remains the cheapest protein available,” he told reporters at a briefing on Wednesday.

Mr. Dar said the increase in output could also be attributed to a shorter production cycle, which makes it attractive for investors to expand their operations.

“There are now bigger companies involved in poultry, including those of small to medium farmers. With the shorter production cycle, the raisers are able to adapt and, if need be, increase their enterprises,” he said.

At the same time, livestock production grew by an annual 5.1% to P60.74 billion. The sector accounted for 13.9% of the total output.

Hog production, which accounted for 11.4% of the total farm output, rose by 6.4%, the sector’s fastest growth in almost 10 years.

Cattle and dairy production also inched up by 1.7% and 6.5%, respectively.

Meanwhile, carabao production slipped by 3.3%, while goat dropped by 5.8%.

Mr. Garcia said the surge in hog production was mainly due to base effects.

“It is good that there is growth in the sector, but it’s coming from a low base because we lost 5 million pigs due to the African Swine Fever (ASF),” he said.

He added that the sector’s recovery also reflects its increasing resilience to ASF.

“The big farms are now learning how to operate with ASF, even with limited vaccine availability. Smallholders, which account for 80% of the sector, are also starting to adapt,” Mr. Garcia said.

DECLINING INCOMES
Despite improvements in some subsectors, industry groups said the headline production figures mask worsening conditions at the farm level.

Mr. Cainglet said profitability continues to deteriorate amid rising input costs and sustained import volumes.

“Unprecedented import volumes and rising production costs are pushing Philippine agriculture toward contraction. As a result, many farmers are now considering skipping the next cropping cycle, threatening supply in the coming quarters,” he said.

Alfred Ng, vice chairman of the National Federation of Hog Raisers, said that despite the growth in the livestock sector, particularly in swine, producers still struggle with low farmgate prices.

“With the current price of P190 to P200 per kilo, farmers are at the breakeven point, if not earning a little,” he told BusinessWorld via Viber.

Mr. Ng also warned that any reductions in pork import tariffs could further dampen incentives for local producers to expand.

“We just hope that the current negotiations and lobbying by both local pork importers and European Union exporters for the lowering of pork import tariffs will not materialize,” he said.

He added that the DA should limit and control the volume of pork imports to further encourage local farmers to expand.

REBOUND SEEN IN Q2
Meanwhile, the DA said it expects farm output to recover in the second quarter, as rice production is expected to improve.

“We are seeing encouraging signs on the ground, with rice production likely recovering in the second quarter as planting conditions normalize, palay prices improve, and government interventions take effect,” Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. said in the statement.

He added that the growth in the livestock and poultry sectors should help stabilize overall output and support the domestic food supply.

However, the DA said that rising production costs and weather risks could weigh on farm output in the second half of the year.

“While we expect a stronger second quarter, the impact of higher oil prices on transport and inputs, particularly fertilizer, as well as the potential effects of an El Niño-induced drought, could weigh on production in the second half,” Mr. Laurel said.

Mr. Laurel said the department is intensifying efforts to help the sector recover and manage emerging headwinds.

We know almost nothing about how dating differs for older adults compared with earlier in life, a scientific conference on love has heard. But despite a lack of data, there are reasons to believe dating in later life is becoming increasingly common, and researchers are now starting to study how romance changes among the over-50s.

“There’s a massive dearth of information,” says Mairi Macleod, who runs Dating Evolved, a programme that helps women aged over 50 find partners. “But it’s really important that over-50s have good relationships; we still want to have sex and all the rest of it,” she says.

Why older dating may be on the up

There are several reasons why dating in the over-50s is thought to be increasing, says Macleod, who co-presented a talk at the Love, actually and in theory conference in Edinburgh, UK, on 5 May. One is that this age group is growing – in the UK, for instance, the number of over-50s increased by 3.1 million people in the 10 years to 2025, and this trend is set to continue over the next two decades.

Divorce rates among older adults are also rising in the UK and other Western nations such as the US, meaning more people over 50 are single, says Macleod, who married her second husband in her 50s. What’s more, it is becoming more socially acceptable to re-partner after a bereavement or relationship breakdown, she says.

A focus on young people

Yet research on dating is almost entirely focused on university undergraduates, who are easy to survey, and people in their 20s and 30s, meaning we know almost nothing about dating after we turn 50, says Craig Roberts at the University of Stirling in the UK, who co-presented the talk.

One reason why later-life dating is so poorly understood is that people tend to view love as a means for reproduction, which generally occurs before age 50, says Divine Charura, a psychologist at York St John University in the UK. Our 20s to 40s are also life stages where people are most economically productive. “It’s capitalism in some ways,” he says. “There is more funding available for studying early, working-age years.”

Society also tends to underestimate the romantic lives of older people. “If I say romantic love, you’re not going to think of my 92-year-old patient who still talks to me about her sexuality and romance meeting someone, and having wild sex,” says Charura.

The pros and cons of dating in later life

Macleod has set up a dating programme for heterosexual women over 50 in the UK, who may find it harder to find partners than older men. “There’s a shortage of men with increasing age after about 50,” she says. “Men just don’t live as long, and more men than women seem to be looking for a younger partner than themselves.”

This means that, with age, women are increasingly competing for a shrinking pool of men their age. “[Anecdotally] men are always in short supply in speed-dating events. A lot of times these have to be cancelled because not enough men turn up,” she says.

So far, Macleod’s programme has provided dating support – via weekly group calls, for six months – to over 200 women. She has gained insights on how dating differs in later life – at least for wealthy, highly educated women in the UK, she says. “There are advantages to dating later in life, things like not having a ticking biological clock and being financially independent,” says Macleod.

“Older women are better able to pick and choose. They generally decide not to have a bloke at all if they can’t find what they deem as a decent one,” she says.

Next, Macleod and Roberts are planning a study that looks at the challenges of dating in later life and identifies practical tips for older singletons.

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Energizer

Coin batteries don’t make headlines all that often, but today shifts that trend with a smart new development. Energizer has released a new Ultimate Child Shield version of its 20mm coin lithium batteries. As the name implies, the tech is aimed at reducing the number of health risks if a child accidentally swallows the battery. These coin batteries don’t cause burning in the esophagus if ingested, and they also contain a dye that will color a child’s mouth blue if it comes in contact with saliva.

According to Energizer’s press release, more than 3,500 coin lithium battery ingestion incidents are reported in the US each year. Traditional coin batteries can cause esophageal burning within 15 minutes of ingestion, and the addition of the dye can help a caregiver notice quickly if an accident has occurred and get help for the child. Ultimate Child Shield tech is available on the company’s size 2032, 2025 and 2016 batteries, which power a variety of devices including watches and AirTags.

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The Lucid logo is shown at the Los Angeles Auto show on Nov. 20, 2025.

Mike Blake | Reuters

DETROIT — Lucid Group suspended its vehicle production guidance for the year as its incoming CEO evaluates the all-electric vehicle manufacturer’s business operations, including the potential for lower output of EVs.

The company on Tuesday also said it needs to lower its “elevated inventory” of vehicles, which for automakers has historically meant decreasing or idling vehicle production.

A company spokesman told CNBC that there is currently no plan to idle its sole U.S. plant in Arizona, but incoming CEO Silvio Napoli said he is continuing to evaluate Lucid’s business.

“An essential objective over time is to build a more cost-efficient company, one that progresses in funding its own growth. That means being rigorous in delivering our commitments,” Napoli said Tuesday on Lucid’s quarterly results call with investors. “In simple words, this means making clear choices on where to invest and, just as importantly, where not to.”

Napoli said he plans to review the company’s operations over the next several weeks before updating investors on the company’s guidance when Lucid reports its second-quarter results at an unspecified date.

The company’s prior production guidance was between 25,000 to 27,000 units in 2026. Lucid executives said plans for cost-cutting, autonomous vehicles with Uber and Nuro, and the company’s “path to profitability” outlined in an investor day in March remain intact.

Lucid has produced roughly 3,200 more vehicles than it has sold since 2024, according to its annual production and deliveries. That includes a difference of roughly 2,000 units last year and 2,400 vehicles during the first quarter of 2026.

The pulled guidance occurred as the company reported first-quarter results that were in line with preliminary results released by the company a month ago, but that still significantly missed Wall Street’s expectations.

“We ended the quarter with elevated inventory that we expect to convert to revenue and cash as deliveries normalize, while maintaining alignment between production and sales cadence. Our focus is on disciplined execution — driving structural cost improvements, managing capital efficiently, and improving operating leverage as we scale,” Lucid CFO Taoufiq Boussaid said in a statement.

Here’s how the company performed in the first quarter compared with average estimates compiled by LSEG:

• Loss per share: $3.46 vs. a loss of $2.64 expected
• Revenue: $282.5 million vs. $440.4 million expected

The company’s revenue increased roughly 20% year-over-year but was far lower than the 87.4% jump analysts were expecting, according to LSEG.

The all-electric vehicle maker said a seat supplier issue “significantly affected” deliveries of its crucial Lucid Gravity SUV during the quarter that resulted in a stop-sale of the vehicle due to safety concerns.

Boussaid said the seat issue caused a more than $200 million revenue impairment during the first quarter.

Lucid produced 5,500 vehicles and delivered 3,093 vehicles in the first quarter of 2026.

The automaker, which is heavily backed by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, said it has sufficient liquidity through the second half of 2027. It ended the first quarter with approximately $4.7 billion, including a recent capital raise and delayed draw term loan provided by PIF.

Lucid on Tuesday said production of a new vehicle plant in Saudi Arabia continues despite the ongoing war in nearby Iran. The company said it has not experienced any significant interruptions to the facility other than some delays in shipping.

The company also said it is adjusting its production reporting to count vehicles once they complete the company’s “factory gating process,” which includes vehicles that may not be completely built and are sent to operations elsewhere for completion.

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In a decision dated April 30, the regulator authorized the implementation of the proposed capex program, which covers 100 projects under regulatory year 2018 aimed at addressing customer demand, resolving operational deficiencies, and ensuring compliance with service performance standards.

“After a thorough evaluation of all the evidence submitted, and appreciation of all the information gathered, the Commission finds that the implementation of the subject capex projects… will benefit its consumers, in accordance with its obligation to provide continuous, safe, reliable, secure, and efficient service for its consumers,” the regulator said.

The ERC said the approved projects will be subject to review and adjustment based on actual usage and verified costs.

Meralco withdrew its highest-cost project, a P2.43-billion advanced metering infrastructure expansion, in 2022.

The power distributor was also directed to pay the ERC a permit fee of P122.78 million.

Meralco is the country’s largest private electric distribution utility, serving more than 8.2 million customers in Metro Manila and nearby provinces, including Bulacan, Cavite, Rizal, and parts of Laguna, Batangas, Pampanga, and Quezon.

Amid higher power costs linked to global oil price pressures, the ERC earlier directed Meralco to accelerate the P19.96-billion refund to its customers.

The accelerated refund will be implemented over 12 months instead of the original 36-month schedule, resulting in an average refund rate of P0.2511 per kilowatt-hour.

Meralco is also awaiting the decision of the ERC on its proposed refund of over P9 billion following a true-up calculation for the lapsed period in 2025.

Meralco’s controlling stakeholder, Beacon Electric Asset Holdings, Inc., is partly owned by PLDT Inc. Hastings Holdings, Inc., a unit of PLDT Beneficial Trust Fund subsidiary MediaQuest Holdings, Inc., has an interest in BusinessWorld through the Philippine Star Group, which it controls. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera

THE UPTREND in food inflation is expected to persist through 2027 amid mounting cost pressures, weather disruptions, and external risks due to the ongoing Middle East war, analysts said.

“We are seeing this to continue until next year or when the Middle East crisis has been resolved,” Danilo V. Fausto, president of the Philippine Chamber of Agriculture and Food, Inc., told BusinessWorld in a Viber message.

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Tuesday that headline inflation accelerated to 7.2% in April from 4.1% in March, driven largely by faster increases in food prices.

Food inflation quickened to 6.1% in April from 2.7% a month earlier and 0.7% a year ago.

The PSA said the higher food inflation was driven by a faster annual increase in rice prices, which surged to 13.7% in April from 3.5% in March.

Other food groups that posted higher inflation included corn (21% in April from 12.3% in March); fish and other seafoods (9.4% from 6.6%); fruits and nuts (6% from 4.7%); and vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, and pulses (10.4% from 7%).

Analysts attributed the continued rise in food prices to higher fuel and fertilizer costs, as well as supply-side pressures.

Mr. Fausto said rising fuel prices have raised logistics costs across the food supply chain.

“The increase in fuel prices resulted in an increase in the cost of deliveries. As for food processors, logistics expenses together with availability and an increase in prices of raw materials contribute to the rise in inflation,” he said.

Former Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar told BusinessWorld that thin rice buffer stocks and weaker farm output also worsened food inflation.

“The buffer stock in rice is so thin, which is now impacting the market. There was also lower production during the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year,” he said via Viber.

Former Agriculture Undersecretary Fermin D. Adriano said the latest inflation print was expected as cost pressures continue to build.

“The results are expected, particularly on food inflation due to rising fertilizer and fuel costs, which are actually at their initial stage,” he told BusinessWorld via Viber.

Mr. Adriano said inflationary pressures could intensify in the coming months, compounded by weather-related risks.

“We expect the full brunt of the adverse impacts of the Middle East war and the incoming El Niño in the second half of this year,” he said.

Mr. Dar said that continued fighting in the Middle East could further raise food inflation by 2.5 percentage points in the second quarter.

“If the war continues, then you can expect the food inflation to rise further by about 2.5 percentage points… by the end of the second quarter or even earlier,” he said.

Meanwhile, the Department of Agriculture said it is rolling out measures to ease supply bottlenecks and curb rising food prices.

In a statement on Tuesday, the agency said measures include the reestablishment of dedicated food lanes, the removal of toll fees for trucks transporting agricultural goods, and the reduction of port charges to accelerate deliveries and lower logistics costs.

“We have moved to provide financial aid to agri-truckers to help keep food prices affordable, and mobilized other offices to bring food from production hubs to markets,” Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. said in the statement.

The department said it is also accelerating the rollout of its subsidized rice program, which offers rice at P20 per kilo to vulnerable sectors.

Mr. Laurel added that the government is prepared to impose a P50-per-kilo price cap on imported rice should price pressures persist.

STAGFLATION is now evident in the Philippines, an analyst said, as inflation accelerated to 7.2% in April while economic growth is expected to come in below 4% in the first quarter.

Patrick M. Ella, portfolio manager and economist at Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corp., said the over three-year-high inflation print coupled with expected sub-4% first quarter growth already points to stagflationary conditions.

“Stagflation is classically defined as negative economic growth and high inflation. But for Philippine standards, sub-4% is already, I think, stagflationary conditions for a high-growth economy like us,” he told Money Talks with Cathy Yang on One News on Tuesday.

The Philippine Statistics Authority on Tuesday reported that inflation rose to 7.2% from a year earlier, much faster than the 4.1% in March and 1.4% in the same month last year.

This was the fastest headline print since the 7.6% seen in March 2023, and also well-above the central bank’s 5.6%-6.4% estimate for the month.

“This is the highest (inflation) in three years, and I, in fact, looked at the monthly gain, and it is over 2.7%, which is quite high. So yes, stagflationary conditions are already evident,” Mr. Ella added.

He said economists have very low expectations for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter, with his own estimate at 2.5%.

A BusinessWorld poll of 21 economists and analysts last week yielded a median estimate of 3.4% for the Philippine GDP growth in the first quarter.

If realized, GDP growth will be slower than the revised 5.4% expansion in the same period a year ago and fall short of the government’s 5-6% target this year.

First-quarter GDP data will be released on Thursday (May 7).

Mr. Ella said the factory activity will likely remain weak after the S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 48.3 in April, its first contraction in five months.

“I think that is expected to continue because of the huge input costs we saw in the last two months,” he said.

Other economists, however, cautioned against labeling the current environment as stagflation. Marco Antonio C. Agonia, an economist at the University of Asia and the Pacific, said the term is “too strong” to describe the situation.

“We use ‘stagflation’ in describing double-digit inflation, unemployment and negative GDP growth figures. What we’re seeing now is a combination of the lingering impacts of the flood control scandal and a global oil shock,” he said.

He said the definite stagflation scenario depicts a prolonged string of negative or near-zero GDP growth along with double-digit inflation and unemployment.

“The last time the Philippines fit that profile was during the political and economic turmoil of the 1980s. For now, the economy is downbeat but somewhat stable and with robust jobs performance,” Mr. Agonia said.

“Besides, we may see faster growth in the second half of this year when government infrastructure spending returns,” he added.

The unemployment rate fell to a two-month low of 5.1% in February, down from 5.8% posted in January but higher than the 3.8% reading in the same month last year.

March jobless data will be out on May 6.

Jonathan L. Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said the April inflation print is “a yellow flag, not a red card.”

“This isn’t stagflation yet… inflation remains sticky — mainly due to food and utilities — but economic growth has not stalled and employment is still holding up,” he said.

“What we’re seeing is inflation fatigue, not stagnation. The key now is targeted supply-side fixes, especially on food, rather than overly aggressive tightening. The risk is real, but it’s still manageable,” he added.

On the other hand, Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes, senior research fellow at the Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, said the country is showing early warning signs of stagflation.

“If high inflation persists, and growth weakens further, then it could tip into genuine stagflation,” he said. “Nevertheless, right now, it is more accurate to say that the Philippines is experiencing a shock-driven inflation surge with softening (not stalled) growth and rising (but not yet realized) stagflation risk.”

He said a true stagflation scenario would mean at least two consecutive quarters of inflation above 5-6%, GDP growth below 2%, rising unemployment, falling real wages, and stagnant investment — all happening simultaneously.

Meanwhile, Asian Development Bank Chief Economist Albert Park said the Philippines’ prospects should not be discounted too quickly, noting the country and other economies in the region have been the “most resilient and dynamic part of the global economy.”

“I think they may need some help getting through this period of adjustment, but the fundamentals still, I think, are in the right direction,” he said in an CNBC interview on Tuesday, citing the Philippines’ big investments in infrastructure and renewable energy.

THE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said it will implement necessary measures to keep prices stable “within a reasonable time” after headline inflation accelerated past expectations in April.

“The BSP is committed to fulfilling its primary mandate of slow inflation and will take necessary actions to ensure inflation returns to its 3% target within a reasonable time,” the central bank said in a statement on Tuesday.

“It will remain vigilant for spillover effects, data-driven, and ready to act as needed,” it added.

This comes after the Philippine Statistics Authority reported that inflation sizzled in April to a three-year high of 7.2%, faster than the 4.1% in March and 1.4% in the same month last year. 

The BSP had expected inflation to settle between 5.6% and 6.4%, while 17 analysts polled by BusinessWorld had a median forecast of 5.5%.

At its April 23 meeting, the BSP ended its nearly two-year easing cycle with a 25-basis point (bp) rate hike, bringing the key policy rate to 4.25%.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. at that time said that they are ready to raise interest rates as much as needed to tame inflation despite its expected impact on domestic growth.

Asian Development Bank Chief Economist Albert Park said the BSP should exercise caution in tightening policy, as the current crisis is largely supply-driven. However, the BSP may need to uphold its price stability mandate if elevated energy costs start spilling over into the prices of other goods and services.

“(O)nce we see the high energy prices, and also the high price of other inputs like fertilizer, or like inputs into the petrochemical industry, into semiconductors, helium, sulfur, we will start to see those higher costs work their way through into higher prices finally,” Mr. Park told CNBC on Tuesday.

“And if that starts to happen and price expectations start to change across the different goods and services that are being produced, then the government may want to — the central banks — may want to start then to consider trying to reduce those inflationary expectations which is really their role,” he added.

OFF-CYCLE MOVE?
Analysts said the central bank may deliver larger rate hikes or raise rates in an off-cycle move amid rising inflation risks after the upside surprise.

ING Regional Head of Research for Asia-Pacific Deepali Bhargava said another 25-bps rate increase is now a “done deal,” with the odds for a 50-bp hike and an off-cycle move rising.   

“Inflation pressures have become increasingly broad based, with food and fuel shocks feeding into core inflation and services, raising the risk of more persistent second round effects,” she said in a commentary on Tuesday. “In this context, a 25-bp rate hike in June looks assured, with risks clearly tilted toward a 50-bp move.”    

ING’s base case now forecasts a total of 75 bps in rate hikes, with a more aggressive stance likely to follow should the Middle East war last longer.

Bank of the Philippine Islands Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. said inflation could quicken to a double-digit pace later this year, which could call for a more aggressive central bank.     

“The BSP may deliver rate hikes larger than the typical 25 bps, either in a regular or off-cycle meeting, with a more forceful move potentially required to rein in inflation expectations,” he said in a separate note.

“While tighter monetary policy could weigh on growth by raising the cost of financing capital expenditures, the economic damage from persistently elevated inflation may be more severe, justifying a more aggressive policy response,” Mr. Neri added.

Meanwhile, Nomura Global Markets Research analysts Euben Paracuelles and Nabila Amani expect the central bank to lift borrowing costs by 25 bps in each of its meetings in June, August and October to bring the benchmark rate to 5.25%.   

Nomura raised its 2026 estimate for headline inflation to 6.1% from 4.9% and for core inflation to 4.6% from 3.8% previously.   

“(The April) inflation outturn has likely increased BSP’s concerns over inflation expectations and second-round effects, which are likely to be assessed by BSP as becoming more evident from the further pickup in core inflation, in our view,” Mr. Paracuelles and Ms. Amani said.    

However, they see the BSP reversing its hikes to deliver 75 bps in cuts in the second half of 2027 as they expect inflation to stabilize. 

The BSP projects the headline print to stay above 5% for most of the year. It had also upwardly revised its full-year forecast to 6.3% from 5.1% previously.

The Monetary Board will hold its next policy meeting on June 18.

ELEVATED oil prices continued to feed into food and utility costs, pushing annual inflation to a three-year high of 7.2% in April, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said on Tuesday.

Faster-than-expected inflation now puts more pressure on the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) which earlier signaled that it could keep hiking interest rates as needed to temper inflation amid the oil crisis.

 PSA data showed that the consumer price index (CPI) accelerated to 7.2% in April, from 4.1% in March and 1.4% a year ago.   

This was the fastest headline print since the 7.6% seen in March 2023, and also well-above the central bank’s 5.6%-6.4% estimate for the month. 

It also blew past the estimates of 17 analysts in a BusinessWorld poll, where the median forecast was at 5.5%.

Month on month, inflation sped up to 2.6%, the fastest since the 3.4% recorded in January 2000. 

National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa noted that faster price increases in food and nonalcoholic beverages, transport, and utilities drove the CPI higher last month.

April marked the second consecutive month that the headline print accelerated past the BSP’s 2%-4% target.   

As of April, inflation averaged 3.9%, a tad below the upper end of the BSP’s full-year goal.   

Despite fuel price rollbacks, transport inflation was faster at 21.4% in April from 9.9% in March.   

This as gasoline inflation quickened to 59.6% in April from 27.3% in the prior month and diesel to 122.7% from the revised 59.6% in March. This was the highest reading for both petroleum products since the CPI rebasing in 2018.

Last month, fuel retailers implemented price cuts after back-to-back hikes since the Middle East war erupted in late February.   

Month on month, pump price adjustments stood at a net decrease of P0.58 per liter for gasoline, P28.18 per liter for diesel and P17.71 per liter for kerosene.

As of end-April, the cost of gasoline ranged between P72.53 and P104.93 a liter, diesel from P75.93 to P101.96 a liter and kerosene from P125.39 to P147.98 a liter. These prices were still significantly higher than a year ago.

Inflation for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) surged to 45.8% in April from the revised 3.7% in March, even as the government suspended the excise tax on LPG and kerosene.

Inflation for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels also picked up to 8.2% in April from the revised 4.7% the previous month.   

In April, Manila Electric Co. raised electricity rates by 53.35 centavos per kilowatt-hour (kWh), bringing the overall rate for the month to P14.3496 per kWh. 

High fuel costs spilled over into food prices in April, bringing inflation for the heavily weighted food and nonalcoholic beverage index to 6% from the revised 2.9% in March.   

This was attributed to the 11.1% inflation in cereals and cereal products (from 3.6% in March); 9.4% in fish and other seafood (from 6.6%); and 10.4% in vegetables, tubers, and the like (from 7%).

Meanwhile, rice inflation remained in positive territory for a second month in a row, accelerating to 13.7% from 3.6% a month ago.   

Based on PSA data, the average per-kilogram (kg) cost of local regular milled rice climbed by 15.95% to P51.53 in the second half of April from P44.44 a year earlier. The price of well-milled rice also grew by 15.32% year on year to P58.88 from P51.06 per kg, while the price of special rice went up by 9.8% to P66.23 per kg from P60.32 per kg.

PESO DEPRECIATION
PSA’s Mr. Mapa noted that the peso depreciation also drove up inflation and weakened the peso’s purchasing power.

Last month, the local unit touched the P61-a-dollar level for the first time, plunging to a new all-time low close of P61.567 against the greenback on April 29.

“Our diesel and gasoline are priced in US dollars, of course, that’s why it had an impact on the price, which in turn had a direct impact on our inflation rate and, of course, on the purchasing power of the peso,” Mr. Mapa said.

“So, the impact of the peso’s weakening contributed to the rise in the price of inputs, particularly the ones we import, and it has impacted the inflation rate, among others,” he added.

According to the PSA, the purchasing power of peso, or the value of each P1, continued to drop to a new record-low of 73 centavos in April. This brings the value of P100 in 2018 to just P73 now.

The PSA also reported that core inflation, which strips out volatile food and fuel prices, picked up to 3.9% in April from 3.2% in March and 2.2% a year earlier. This was the highest core print since the 4.4% logged in December 2023.   

In the National Capital Region (NCR), inflation quickened to 5.5% in April from the revised 3.5% in March and 2.4% in the prior year.

Inflation in areas outside NCR was also faster at 7.7% in April, from 4.2% a month earlier and 1.2% last year.

Meanwhile, inflation for the bottom 30% of income households accelerated to its fastest pace in over three years at 8.5% in April, from 4.2% in March and 0.1% in the same month last year.

In a statement, the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development said the administration is “intensifying targeted interventions,” after inflation sizzled last month.

“Amid the Middle East conflict disrupting fuel supply chains, the government is intensifying targeted interventions, particularly to temper upward price pressures on food, energy, and transport, while ensuring the continued stability of domestic supply,” Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said. 

MORE RATE HIKES?
Meanwhile, Chinabank Research said the BSP will likely hike rates anew but has limited room for aggressive tightening as rising inflation will soon drag economic growth.

It now projects the headline print to hold above 7% in the coming months, with the full-year clip likely to end at around 6%.

“We expect the BSP to raise rates further. However, elevated inflation will continue to weigh on consumption and growth, constraining the BSP’s ability to hike rates aggressively and placing greater responsibility on the government to curb additional inflationary pressures,” Chinabank Research said.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the BSP could extend its rate-hike cycle, much like during the 2022 oil crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“There is a possibility of BSP rate hike/s, similar to the previous cycle four years ago, in an effort nip inflationary pressures at the bud and better manage inflation and prevent it from spiraling further… even if the unintended consequences include slowing down the economy,” he said in a Viber message. 

At its April 23 meeting, the central bank ended its nearly two-year easing cycle with a 25-basis-point rate hike, which brought the key policy rate to 4.25%. This marked its first tightening move since October 2023.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. at that time said that they could hike rates as much as needed to keep prices stable despite its expected impact on domestic growth.

The BSP sees inflation hovering above 5% for most of the year to average 6.3% by end-2026. This was higher than its earlier forecast of 5.1%.

Meanwhile, Jose Enrique “Sonny” A. Africa, executive director of the think tank IBON Foundation, said the faster April inflation clip reflects lapses in the government’s response to the over two-month long energy crisis. 

“The Marcos Jr. (administration) didn’t create the oil shock, but its refusal to cut oil taxes and control oil firm overpricing is making sure that tens of millions of poor, low-income and middle-class Filipinos fully absorb it,” he said in a Facebook post on Tuesday.

“The latest inflation figures clearly underscore how the (government’s) response is too slow, reaches too few, and gives too little,” he added.

For minerologists, a mine is an invitation. The earth has been broken open, its veins laid bare – and those who enter hope to find unknown wonders. In the 1970s, Kali Kafi mine near the small Iranian town of Anarak fulfilled that hope. There, among the dusty desert rocks, Joachim Otteman and Darius Adib saw a bluish-green glow.

They took samples of the glassy mineral and analysed its structure back in the lab. What they knew was that this geological species had never been catalogued – they named it anarakite, and it lay forgotten for decades. What they didn’t know was that the emerald glow they unearthed may have been hiding a remarkable quantum secret.

This isn’t any ordinary rock. Anarakite – later renamed herbertsmithite – could be a rare type of matter known as a quantum spin liquid (QSL). Whether these occur naturally is hotly debated, but if the physicists who think they can are right, nature could be creating highly entangled states. Physicists know how to create entanglement, too, but only in limited ways, such as entangling particles of light or ultracold atoms. Entangling particles within a chunk of stuff has so far eluded them.

Minerals like herbertsmithite suggest quantum entanglement might not be something we must make, but something that just exists naturally, which we could potentially use to push quantum computers into a new realm of usefulness.

“The whole machine is sort of like an entangled network, sort of like a hive mind. And this is what a spin liquid is,” says Michael Norman at Argonne National Laboratory in Illinois. “If nature does it better than us, that would be great.”

For those who weren’t in that Iranian mine, the story of quantum spin liquids starts in 1973 with condensed matter theorist Philip W. Anderson. He wasn’t concerned with shiny minerals. He was at his desk, pen and paper in hand, mathematically investigating quantum spin, a property of quantum particles that makes them behave like tiny bar magnets. Large magnets, for example, stick to your fridge because all their atomic spins are locked into a specific pattern. Anderson thought he had concocted a situation in which quantum spins could never get locked in like that, where even when they were made extremely cold and devoid of energy, quantum effects would keep them jiggling between different orientations. He was clear-eyed about this new state of matter, writing: “A disclaimer is in order: we really know very little about it.” Anderson didn’t quite land on the right mathematical recipe for this, but the forever-jiggling magnet he dreamed up was, in fact, a quantum spin liquid.

Harnessing natural entanglement

What makes QSLs unique is the way their spins are connected through quantum entanglement. Two entangled particles share a quantum state sensitive to what happens to either of them. Maximising entanglement can push a material into a different phase – a magnet is transmuted into a QSL when all its spins become inextricable from each other. Finding so much entanglement in a naturally occurring mineral would be nothing short of striking quantum gold.

That’s because it could solve one of the biggest problems with quantum computers. Right now, every quantum computer is stymied by errors that cascade through it. We could combat that by spreading the information it processes across many of its constituent parts. This typically means adding components, then working out how to entangle them with other parts of the device. But if we could start with a quantum spin liquid, we wouldn’t have to engineer entanglement; we could harness it.

There are plenty of practical details to work out for how to do that, but the very promise of it has already inspired theoretical studies. However, an even bigger issue remains: whether QSLs truly exist in nature has been the subject of contentious disagreement among physicists. One man thinks herbertsmithite is a crucial part of the proof that they do.

Young Lee at SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory in California has spent his career studying herbertsmithite and its mineral cousins. Now, he thinks his team has solid evidence of the minerals’ long-sought quantumness.

Herbertsmithite contains flat layers of magnetic copper atoms separated by non-magnetic zinc. The copper atoms form a “Kagome pattern”, rows of interlinked six-pointed stars. Ordinarily, copper atoms would flip a neighbouring atom’s spin, but the Kagome pattern makes it impossible for a flipped spin to stabilise – spins can’t lock each other into a static arrangement. Mathematical models of spins in Kagome patterns show that some groups of spin could move around without needing any extra energy, which sounds an awful lot like a QSL’s relentless jiggling.

At first glance, then, the chances that herbertsmithite is a naturally occurring quantum spin liquid, roiling with entanglement underneath its glassy surface, seem rather good. But definitively showing that it is – and Lee has spent years trying – proved remarkably difficult.

From the earliest days, mathematically proving that the Kagome pattern always leads to a QSL was challenging, and various approximate proofs caused disagreements among theorists, says Hitesh Changlani at Florida State University. The only way to really settle it was in the lab.

Making a quantum mineral

That’s where Lee found himself in 2007, when a chemistry breakthrough allowed him and a colleague to synthesise herbertsmithite from scratch. The mineral is rare in nature, and being able to make it gave them more control over its purity. Changlani says the first reports of these experiments caused a splash among physicists. Finally, they had something real with which to compare their theories, says Zi Yang Meng at the University of Hong Kong.

But a new kind of trouble reared its head: what exactly do you measure to prove a mineral contains the right kind of quantum weirdness to be a quantum spin liquid?

For one, physicists don’t know how to directly measure quantum entanglement in a chunk of a material, so it is currently impossible to observe one of the defining properties of a QSL. Experiments that probe the orientation of spins are a good bet, but to be definitive, they would have to be performed incredibly close to absolute zero, which is possible but might not give unimpeachable results. We can get things pretty cold, but there’s a chance the spins could lock into some unexpected arrangement if they were just a little colder.

Theoretical models posit that quantum spin liquids should support two kinds of emergent particles, spinons and visons. If we could capture or image one of them, that could also prove a material’s QSL status. Unfortunately, this too seems to elude the capabilities of existing experiments. Spinons and visons have no electric charge, so typical electronic techniques are blind to their existence. For all these reasons, many experimental tests of suspected QSLs hit a wall.

But Lee and his colleagues zeroed in on one line of investigation that could prove decisive: inelastic neutron scattering. Here, researchers shoot neutrons at mineral samples and, from the energy and momentum of particles that bounce off of them, they reconstruct whether the sample contained any spinons. In 2025, Lee and his colleagues used this technique on herbertsmithite and a closely related mineral called zinc barlowite, another shiny, greenish crystal with a Kagome structure. What they found convinced Lee that the quest for quantum spin liquids ought to be over.

Making this work was an experimental odyssey. Synthesising herbertsmithite in the lab takes months. Once they mixed and heated the necessary chemicals in quartz test tubes, they had to wait up to 10 months for chemical reactions to slowly “grow” the mineral. More than half of the test tubes failed to produce it, and those that did yielded tiny amounts. Growing zinc barlowite was similarly time-consuming, with the added difficulty that the initial chemical mixture eats the walls of test tubes, and the researchers had to figure out how to line them with Teflon.

The final crystals could all still fit on the tip of your finger. “We don’t know if the quality is good until we stop the growth, break the quartz tube and collect the pieces,” says Lee. “We grow a whole bunch of smaller pieces that could be tens of milligrams or less, then we align many of them like a puzzle, putting them all together to make one bigger crystal.”

They took it to Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee, home of the world’s best neutron-scattering facility, to see what they had made. Locked in a metal chamber just 2 kelvin above absolute zero, herbertsmithite and zinc barlowite were subjected to a barrage of neutrons travelling at hundreds of metres per second.

For Lee and his team, it was all worth it. They analysed their data and arrived at a verdict: both minerals seemed to be quantum spin liquids. “I certainly have my own biases, but I think reasonable minds should already be convinced,” he says.

Not quite sold

However, disagreements persist. “To announce that you have found, for sure, the first example of a QSL, you want to have evidence that’s airtight,” says Steven Kivelson at Stanford University in California. “For a first, we rightly want to use extremely high standards.”

What makes the case of herbertsmithite and zinc barlowite less than airtight is the issue of material imperfections, says Norman. Both contain copper atoms, sometimes called “orphan spins”, that don’t belong to any neat, patterned plane and become bits of unwanted magnetic dirt within each mineral. A neutron interacting with one of these orphans can produce a signal that looks troublingly similar to a neutron interacting with a pair of spinons, mixing up the telltale signs of a quantum spin liquid with the much less exciting possibility that all you’ve got is a messy magnet. “People will say, ‘Is it the impurity that’s causing everything that you’re seeing?’ This is a tough problem,” says Norman.

Much of Lee’s work has, for this reason, been to create less disordered minerals and to understand the details of disorder within them better. “Young Lee is a hero in this. He’s had a focus and persistence that is incredibly admirable,” says Kivelson.

Because zinc barlowite has a slightly different structure than herbertsmithite, its disordered atoms fall differently throughout the Kagome pattern. Both Kivelson and Norman say that the fact that the two minerals show similar QSL-like features despite this difference strengthens the case that those features aren’t just mirages created by disorder. “I think that’s a really good argument. One is increasingly confident that Lee’s seeing a QSL,” says Kivelson.

This slowly cresting wave of optimism doesn’t rest purely on the backs of the two emerald materials. Meng was part of a team that found very sharp signatures of spinons in a material made from yttrium, copper and bromine, which also has a Kagome pattern. He says it’s not impossible that a future experiment could contradict his team’s findings, but he is optimistic he’s seen signs of a quantum spin liquid. “For me, I think [today’s] evidence is good enough,” he says.

Changlani and his colleagues have also seen hints. They tackled the problem of QSLs in materials that can’t be divided into flat planes, but where spins are arranged in a pattern that uses all three spatial dimensions. For one such lab-grown material made from cerium, zirconium and oxygen, they looked for signatures of QSL behaviour in neutron-scattering data and in how the entanglement and spin jiggling affect its response to heat. Observations from these experiments match a theoretical model of a 3D quantum spin liquid well enough to convince them that QSLs exist in nature and across many different material structures. “There is now growing evidence that these things, QSLs, are real,” says Changlani.

“There’s this popular notion of the smoking gun experiment, one experiment that establishes everything. But often what happens is that you end up with a web of evidence, and it gets to the point that the evidence supporting something comes from so many sides and is so strong that even if one branch of the web turns out to be flawed, it doesn’t change your understanding of what is true,” says Kivelson. In his view, researchers have made real progress in weaving this web for quantum spin liquids.

Norman would like to see that smoking gun before the question of naturally occurring QSLs can be settled. Primarily, he wants physicists to detect and manipulate spinons or visons more directly. Spinons can carry heat, which ought to be detectable. Another option could be to force two particles within a potential quantum spin liquid to encircle each other, which would change their properties in ways we can precisely predict based on mathematical models. “That kind of experiment, which would be a tour de force, is what would be needed to be done to prove that a QSL really exists in nature,” says Norman.

Controlling particle motion in that way would also be crucial for any QSL-based quantum computers, as many computational steps would consist of spinons and visons dancing around each other.

Quantum computers might even come in handy for building their own future QSL-based replacements. For example, instead of messing with copper atoms in a chemistry lab, each spin could be emulated by a qubit – the basic building block of a quantum computer – creating a synthetic QSL within the device. Norman says existing quantum computers aren’t yet big and reliable enough for this task, but they could get there in the near term. The number of error-free qubits he estimates would do the trick is in line with plans that a few quantum computing companies have for the next five years.

For his part, Lee is grounded in the material science and chemistry of the now. There is a lot less glamour and hype here, but he has clarity about what his team ought to keep doing: “The wish list is to convince the community that we have at least QSLs in herbertsmithite and zinc barlowite.”

If they win over the materials physics community, could that lead to a run on the mines for these minerals across the globe? Even if it can be gathered, Lee is wary of having to wait for Earth to produce a perfect crystal, especially as they are often too small and have unpredictable impurities.

Norman, on the other hand, says herbertsmithite has several naturally occurring mineral relatives that may still be promising if they have fewer imperfections.

In the aftermath of the Anarak discovery, herbertsmithite turned up in some mines in Chile, and Norman says he’s recently heard of physicists visiting to collect new samples, hoping to confirm that quantum entanglement is waiting for us to dig it up.

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Sam Rutherford for Engadget

The Steam Controller has been a hot topic for the PC gaming world for the past few weeks, and a new tidbit could keep the conversation going: Valve released the CAD files for the gamepad’s shell. They’re free to download under a Creative Commons license, meaning people can now design and construct their own accessories for the Steam Controller and its puck.

The files are only for the device’s exterior; you won’t be able to 3D print yourself the innards to build your entire controller from scratch. That means that if you are on the hunt for a Steam Controller, you may be waiting for a bit while the sold-out gamepad is restocked. Fortunately, since Valve hasn’t given a release window yet for the Steam Machine and Steam Frame VR headset, it’s probably not an essential purchase right this instant for most gamers. But it is a good controller if you can find one, and it’s a nifty idea for Valve to let people get creative with the casing.

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The Rolling Stones have announced their new album ‘Foreign Tongues’ and confirmed that it will feature guest appearances from Paul McCartney, Robert Smith and more.

The rock veterans seemingly confirmed the new record last month when a series of billboards popped up around the world, featuring their logo and reading ‘Foreign Tongues’ in various languages.

Mick Jagger and co. later shared the post on their official Instagram page, leading to some fans suspecting that it could be the title of their new album.

Before then, they dropped a teaser of new material under the alias ‘The Cockroaches’, releasing the energetic and charismatic single ‘Rough and Twisted’.

Now, the band have officially confirmed the new album and revealed that it will be released on July 10 via Polydor/Universal Music. Visit here to pre-order.

The record will be formed of 14 songs and introduced by the infectious lead single ‘In The Stars’, which is released digitally today (Tuesday May 5) and will get a physical release on May 15.

It’ll also drop alongside the digital release of ‘Rough And Twisted’, and both tracks capture the raw and exploratory energy that the band lean into throughout the record.

Alongside Jagger, Keith Richards and Ronnie Wood, ‘Foreign Tongues’ also has one of the final recordings from late drummer Charlie Watts before his passing in 2021, as well as guest appearances from Steve Winwood, Paul McCartney, The Cure’s Robert Smith and Chad Smith of the Red Hot Chili Peppers.

The whole record was brought to life in less than one month at Metropolis Studios in West London, with production from Andrew Watt – who also worked with them on 2024’s ‘Hackney Diamonds’.

“I love doing these recording sessions in London at Metropolis,” said Jagger. “It was a very intense few weeks recording ‘Foreign Tongues’. We had 14 great tracks and we went as fast as we could. I like the room there as it’s not too big so you can feel the passion in the room from everyone.”

Richards added that the record has a sense of “continuity from ‘Hackney Diamonds’” and captures “that London vibe” that the last record had, while Wood added that the “the atmosphere in the room was so creative, and the whole band was on top form throughout the whole process”.

“Very often we nailed it on the first take. I hope everyone loves it,” he added.

The three members are set to attend a media launch for ‘Foreign Tongues’ later today in Brooklyn, New York.

The Rolling Stones are unlikely to announce a full tour anytime soon. In late 2025, they confirmed that they scrapped plans for a UK and European stadium tour in 2026 because Keith Richards was unable to “commit” to it.

The group embarked on their North American ‘Hackney Diamonds’ tour in 2024, with the trek landing at Number Six on the list of the highest-grossing music world tours of that year. They last played the UK in 2022, when two huge London BST Hyde Park gigs followed a stadium concert in Liverpool.

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STREAMING service Prime Video will have a new Filipino romance drama series, titled Love Is Never Gone, starting May 8.

Produced by ABS-CBN Studios and Dreamscape Entertainment, it stars Joshua Garcia and Ivana Alawi, marking the first time the two celebrities will lead a series together.

Set in Morocco, it blends romance and suspense, following two lost souls who find strength and love in each other only to discover that lies and betrayal threaten to derail their happiness.

For Ms. Alawi, the series was a rare chance to do something both action-packed and romantic in another country — most importantly, with a reliable co-star.

“Joshua is more than just an actor. Napakabait niyang tao (He’s a very kind person). He’s generous and he treats everyone with respect,” she said during a press launch on April 28 in Quezon City.

Her role also requires speaking different languages, as she plays a woman who takes on various high-risk jobs to survive. Though the actress was raised in Bahrain by a Moroccan father, she spoke neither Arabic nor French, which are two languages her character speaks.

“Inaral ko nang tatlong araw bago mag-shoot. Multilingual ako dito. Kahit Spanish alam ko rin (I studied for three days before shooting. I’m multilingual here. I even know Spanish),” she said.

“Kapag dumadating sa set, smiling si Ivana. Iirap-irap lang ’yan pero mahal kami niyan (When she arrives on set, Ivana is smiling. She always glares at us but she loves us),” Mr. Garcia said of his co-star at the press launch.

“Mabilis siya umiyak sa mga eksena. Natutuwa ako kasi same page na kami palagi (She cries very easily in our scenes. I’m glad because we’re always on the same page),” he added.

As for their chemistry, the actor explained that it was both natural and due to the bonding opportunities they had while filming in Morocco.

‘FILMIC APPROACH’
Love Is Never Gone has all sorts of twists and turns. Teo (played by Mr. Garcia) is a devoted son who works in Morocco in order to give his family a better life, while Yana (played by Ms. Alawi) has ties to a crime syndicate which leads to an inevitable betrayal of their budding romance.

While the first few episodes are largely set in Morocco, the story picks up years later back in the Philippines, when Teo encounters Yana who now goes by a different identity.

“It’s really full of action. There’s a lot to look forward to and be surprised by,” Ms. Alawi said.

Director Emmanuel Palo told the press that the “filmic approach” of the show is only right given that it will stream not only in the Philippines, but in other countries and territories.

“We firmly believe our audience deserves nothing less,” he said. “Aside from the visuals, it’s really the narrative. Yes, it looks and sounds good, but our creative team really worked hard to give us a story that’s relatable and real, with characters that are truthful.”

Fellow director Jojo Saguin explained that the series offers a blend of things that not many people expect to see, all in one.

“The camera angling is different, the action scenes plus the undeniable chemistry of our two stars is quite different, and there’s the texture of Morocco,” she said.

“Of course, love for family is the core,” she explained, of the themes that viewers can expect in the show. “Matapos na ang lahat, sa pamilya ka pa rin babalik (After everything, you still go back to family).”

Also in the cast are Jameson Blake, Jane Oineza, Michael de Mesa, Epy Quizon, Fyang Smith, JM Ibarra, Dina Bonnevie, and Ara Mina.

The production is one of several collaborations between ABS-CBN and Prime Video, all aiming to bring Filipino entertainment to more viewers worldwide.

Love Is Never Gone is scheduled to premiere on May 8. — Brontë H. Lacsamana

Department of Energy (DoE) Secretary Sharon S. Garin on Monday said oil companies must implement a price hike of not more than P2.66 per liter for diesel and P2.21 per liter for gasoline.

The rollback in the price of kerosene on the other hand, should be capped at P3.53 per liter, Ms. Garin said.

Ms. Garin said the global oil market has been calming down compared with the previous weeks.

In line with the DoE guidance, Seaoil Philippines, Inc. and Petron Corp. announced they would raise prices by P2.21 per liter for gasoline and P2.66 per liter for diesel starting Tuesday. The firms will lower kerosene prices by P3.53 per liter.

On the other hand, Jetti Petroleum, Inc. is set to hike the price of gasoline by P2.20 per liter and diesel by P2.60 per liter.

The Energy chief said the peso depreciation added upward pressure on oil prices.

On Monday, the peso closed at P61.565 per dollar, weakening by eight centavos from its P61.485 finish on Thursday. This is just a tad stronger than the peso’s record-low close of P61.567 on April 29.

With the new adjustments, prevailing oil prices at the pump in Metro Manila and highly urbanized areas are expected to reach as high as P107.11 per liter for gasoline, P107.48 per liter for diesel, and P146.46 per liter for kerosene.

“Now it seems like (global oil prices are) steadying at a certain pace and hopefully it stays like that. There’s no assurance. The Department of Energy cannot give an assurance that prices are going up or down,” Ms. Garin said.

Meanwhile, the cost of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has gone up by P1.22 per kilogram this month, pushing the price of an 11-kilo cylinder to P1,070.41 – P1,701.77.

According to Ms. Garin, the country’s fuel inventory can sustain demand for approximately 53.71 days as of May 1, decreasing from 54 days last week.

The average inventory for gasoline is at 52.64 days, 54.58 days for diesel, 166.67 days for kerosene, 71.14 days for jet fuel, 62.69 days for fuel oil, and 40.46 days for LPG.

“There’s been a decrease on the consumption or on the demand, but there is no problem as to the deliveries that our oil companies are getting,” Ms. Garin said. “Their orders are being honored, their contracts are being honored…. Our usual and new suppliers are responding to the orders of our companies.”

Despite a slight decline in the fuel inventory, Ms. Garin said the government is not yet looking to procure additional supply after importing more than 150 million liters of diesel.

“For now, that will be used for whatever purpose aligns with our priorities. However, there’s no need to place another order yet,” she said.

On the proposed legislation to remove value-added tax (VAT) on electricity components, Ms. Garin said they are in favor of this measure as long as it would help lower costs.

“We have been consistent in our opinion on VAT removal because anything that would lower the price of electricity, the DoE supports,” she said. — S.J.Talavera

Data from the Public-Private Partnership Center showed that 168 projects worth P3.02 trillion will be implemented by the National Government, while 84 projects worth P136.26 billion will be carried out by local government units.

Most of the projects, or 194, are solicited or government-initiated, while the remaining 57 projects are unsolicited.

In terms of project value, the railway sector accounted for the largest share at P1.97 trillion, followed by land transport at P274.06 billion and property development at P221.46 billion.

By number, the transport sector accounted for the most projects at 94, followed by property development (46) and information and communications technology sector (23).

Nigel Paul C. Villarete, a senior adviser on public-private partnerships at Libra Konsult, Inc., said the concentration on transport projects reflects its role in enabling other projects.

“Most projects cannot offer their full financial and economic contribution to development without the means of transportation of people, products, and capital from the producer to the user,” he said in a Viber message.

“That is why many people are interested in it (transport sector) because the sector is the enabler of economic development,” he added.

According to the PPP Center, most of the projects will be located in the National Capital Region (38), Central Luzon (32), and Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, and Palawan (Mimaropa) Region (29).

However, a large majority, or 224 PPP projects worth P2.65 trillion, are still under the project preparation stage.

Meanwhile, 17 projects worth P141.86 billion are under the approval stage, while 11 projects worth P371 billion are in the procurement stage. 

With most projects still being prepared, Mr. Villarete said budget constraints are a key factor preventing them from proceeding.

“There are a lot of feasible projects which can be undertaken anytime but we are always constrained by the limitations imposed by our ability to spend,” he said.

“That is why it is very important to have a firm and rigid project evaluation system which is based on the economic internal rate of return,” he added.

Mr. Villarete also said external risks, such the conflict in the Middle East, are not expected to have a significant impact on PPP projects.

“Maybe there might be slight hesitation (from investors) but I do not think there is a cause for it,” he said. “But overall, I do not see any sizable slowing down of PPPs due to (the Middle East) war,” he added.

In an interview in late March, PPP Center Executive Director Rizza Blanco-Latorre told BusinessWorld that the center does not expect the conflict to affect the PPP pipeline in the near term, although a prolonged war could have an impact.

The Philippines, a net oil importer of crude oil, is extremely vulnerable to global crude price swings. It is under a one-year state of national energy emergency amid soaring fuel prices and declining reserves. — Justine Irish D. Tabile

In a report dated May 1, Nomura Global Markets Research said gross domestic product (GDP) may have expanded by 2.9% in the January-March period, slowing from 3% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year.

“We expect GDP growth to moderate further to 2.9% year on year in Q1 from 3% in Q4, still led by a slump in construction activity due to the corruption controversy,” it said.

In 2025, the Philippine economy grew by 4.4% — a post-pandemic low — as a flood control scandal curtailed government spending, hurt consumption, and dampened business and consumer confidence.

“We also expect private sector spending to remain subdued, particularly household consumption, weighed by weak sentiment and rising costs,” Nomura said.

On the other hand, analysts from Deutsche Bank Research forecast first-quarter GDP to expand by 3.3%, slightly better than the 3% growth in the fourth quarter.

“While we expect some recovery in household consumption in the quarter, aggregate growth could be weighed down by high base effects from a frontloading of government spending in Q1 last year (+18.7% year on year) before the May 2025 midterm elections,” they said in a note released on Monday.

A BusinessWorld poll of 21 economists and analysts conducted last week yielded a median estimate of 3.4% for the first-quarter GDP, well below the government’s 5%-6% target for the year.

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) will release the first-quarter GDP report on Thursday.

HOT INFLATION
Meanwhile, prolonged oil price shocks may have continued to stoke inflation in April, with the headline print likely accelerating to its fastest pace in three years.

Nomura analysts said headline inflation may have quickened to 6.2% in April from 4.1% in March and 1.4% in April 2025. This would bring inflation to its fastest since the 6.6% recorded in April 2023.

Fluctuating global oil prices amid uncertainties surrounding the Middle East war kept domestic fuel prices high in April. However, several local fuel retailers began to roll back fuel prices in the week of April 14.

Last month, pump price adjustments stood at a net decrease of P0.58 per liter for gasoline, P28.18 per liter for diesel and P17.71 per liter for kerosene.

Nomura likewise sees broader spillover effects heating up core inflation to 3.7% in April from 3.2% in March.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has said second-round price effects from the war emerged earlier than expected, prompting caution over the core inflation print.

The BSP noted that the recent uptick in energy inflation has begun to spill over to the costs of fertilizer, transport and food.

On the other hand, Deutsche Bank Research sees the headline clip coming in at 5.5%, the fastest since the 6.1% in September 2023.

“(The) Philippines (5.5%) and Thailand (1.5%) could see the largest increase in inflation by ~1.5%-point each, the former of which would be meaningfully above BSP’s 2-4% inflation target, but well-within BoT’s (Bank of Thailand) 1-3%,” it said.

Based on a BusinessWorld poll of 17 analysts, the consumer price index in April is estimated to be at 5.5%, slightly below the BSP’s 5.6%-6.4% forecast for the month.

The PSA is set to publish the April inflation data on Tuesday. — Katherine K. Chan

PHILIPPINE FACTORY activity contracted for the first time in five months in April amid a sharp decline in new orders, S&P Global said on Monday.

The S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slumped to 48.3, a reversal from 51.3 in March, reflecting a “moderate deterioration in operating conditions.”

A PMI reading below 50 shows a deterioration in operating conditions from the previous month, while a reading above 50 signals an improvement.

“The Philippine manufacturing sector started the second quarter of 2026 with a renewed worsening of operating conditions as the headline index fell below the neutral 50 reading for the first time in five months,” Maryam Baluch, an economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a report.

April marked the first contraction in PMI since the 47.4 reading in November 2025.

Aside from the Philippines, Indonesia (49.1) was the only other Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member that saw a contraction in PMI in April.

In contrast, Malaysia had the highest PMI (51.6), followed by Myanmar (50.9) and Vietnam (50.5).

For the Philippines, S&P Global said new orders declined rapidly, while production stalled.

According to S&P, the decline in new orders was the steepest since August 2021.

“Total new sales were also weighed down by a deteriorating export market demand picture,” said Ms. Baluch.

Philippine manufacturers reported that new export orders fell at a “notably accelerated and rapid pace” in April, as closed trade routes resulted in a pause in shipments and created hesitancy among customers.

S&P Global said this was the steepest decline in new export orders since mid-2020, at the height of the pandemic lockdowns.

“Total new sales were also weighed down by a deteriorating export market demand picture,” Ms. Baluch said.

Manufacturing firms also saw sluggish production levels in April.

“Production levels stagnated, and firms made cuts to purchasing and hiring activity as they grappled with high costs, often said to be feeding through from the war in the Middle East,” Ms. Baluch added.

Input price inflation accelerated to its fastest pace since December 2022, which firms attributed to higher energy and shipping costs linked to the war in the Middle East.

“Costs were largely passed on to clients through a sharp and stronger rise in factory gate charges. The rate of selling price inflation was the quickest in 41 months,” S&P Global said.

Manufacturers saw a drop in buying activity for a second month in a row in April, as they turned to inventories to meet production requirements. This led to the biggest reduction in pre-production inventories since 2020.

S&P Global noted that rising costs drove manufacturers to slash staffing numbers. This marked the first decline in hiring activity this year.

Despite a drop in employment, Philippine firms reported lower backlogs amid a sharp reduction in new orders.

“Looking at supply chains, April marked a further deterioration in vendor performance. Average lead times for inputs lengthened solidly. Longer delivery times were widely linked to the war in the Middle East,” S&P Global said.

Despite the challenges, manufacturers reported stronger business confidence, underpinned by hopes of a growing client base and improving demand.

“Manufacturing firms in the Philippines expect to shake off current woes, as confidence for the year ahead rose to a 17-month high,” Ms. Baluch said.

Francisco Cid L. Terosa, an associate professor and former dean of the School of Economics of the University of Asia and the Pacific, said that the manufacturing decline in April reflects the adverse impact of the Middle East conflict.

“The flow of key manufacturing inputs like petroleum products and by-products, liquefied natural gas, and the like was clearly disrupted by the ongoing crisis,” Mr. Terosa said in a Viber message.

“If the conflict persists, I expect the deterioration of the PMI to deepen and the growth prospects of the manufacturing sector to dim,” he added.

I am a honey fanatic. On sourdough bread with lots of butter, in smoothies or Asian stir fries, I can’t get enough. I justify my habit based on some vague recollection of hearing that it has some health benefits, but am I kidding myself?

Honey is often thought of as a healthier alternative to refined white sugar because it is less processed and doesn’t cause the same blood sugar spikes. It’s plant nectar, thickened by bees, and mostly comprises the simple sugars glucose and fructose, along with traces of lesser-known sugars like trehalose, kojibiose, nigerose, melibiose, gentiobiose and palatinose. But whether it’s “healthier” than other sugars depends on where the bees sourced their nectar.

One measure we can use to compare sugars and honey is the glycaemic index (GI), which gauges how quickly a food increases blood sugar. For refined white sugar, the GI is around 65, while honeys clock in all over the GI range. Honey made from the nectar of the Middle Eastern Sidr tree, for example, has a GI of just 32, but honey made from Greek thyme has a GI up at 85. (If you’re curious about your favourite variety, you can look up the GI values of different honeys on the University of Sydney’s enormous GI database.)

One reason for this variation is the different ratios of glucose and fructose. Glucose quickly raises blood sugar, whereas fructose does not, so this ratio affects GI. Refined sugar has a less variable GI because it always contains equal parts glucose and fructose that are packaged together as sucrose.

Another reason some honeys have low GI values is because they contain other components like phenolic acids and flavonoids that slow down the absorption of glucose in the gut. These components also have antioxidant properties, which are thought to make them mildly protective against cancer, heart disease and other conditions related to oxidative stress. However, you’re probably better off getting these antioxidants from fruits and vegetables, since those foods contain higher amounts while also being lower in sugar and calories.

Raw honey, the type you usually find at local markets, is considered healthier than mass-produced brands because it retains more phenolic acids and flavonoids. This is honey taken straight from the hive and simply strained into jars. Unlike raw milk, raw honey is considered pretty safe. The main risk is contamination with Clostridium botulinum bacteria, which produce botulinum toxin – a neurotoxin that paralyses muscles, which is why it is used in Botox treatments. The toxin is particularly dangerous for infants under the age of 1, which is why parents are advised not to give them honey (probably good to avoid Botox at that age as well).

Mass-produced honeys are pasteurised to kill microbes, which makes them safer and extends their shelf lives, but also destroys some beneficial antioxidants. Some commercial honey products have also been found to be adulterated with cheap sugar syrups. Others that advertise themselves as natural aphrodisiacs have even been found to contain tadalafil, the active ingredient in the erectile dysfunction drug Cialis.

A simple way to gauge the content of valuable phenolic acids and flavonoids in your honey is by its colour, with darker honeys generally containing higher amounts. I buy a beautiful deep brown raw honey from a home beekeeper who lives a few blocks away, and find it far tastier than supermarket honey, perhaps because it contains more of these flavoursome components. His bees make the honey from local Eucalyptus trees, which hopefully means it has a relatively low GI, based on testing of other Eucalyptus honeys.

I’ve heard that consuming local honey can be good for hay fever, but unfortunately this isn’t true. The thinking behind this myth is that honey contains traces of pollens that bees pick up from local plants, which might train the immune system to tolerate these pollens better. However, hay fever is caused by pollen from trees that aren’t visited by bees. These trees spread their pollen via the wind rather than by hitching on bees, which is how it ends up in your nose.

On the other hand, there is evidence that honey can slightly alleviate sore throats and coughs caused by viral or bacterial infections, perhaps owing to its comforting texture and natural antimicrobial properties. A review of all previous studies concluded that honey was better than nothing for reducing cough symptoms in children and about as effective as over-the-counter cough medicines. This will be obvious to anyone who has brewed up a lemon and ginger tea with a large spoonful of honey when feeling poorly.

Honey can also be beneficial in wound care. The most common type used in wound ointments and dressings is medical-grade manuka honey, which is approved in the UK, the US and Australia. This honey is made by bees in Australia and New Zealand from the nectar of manuka tea trees and is sterilised by gamma radiation to remove any harmful microorganisms. It contains high levels of an antimicrobial compound called methylglyoxal, which helps to prevent or treat wound infections.

Whatever you do, don’t eat honey made from the nectar of rhododendrons, particularly species native to Nepal and Turkey. This honey causes “mad honey disease”, characterised by confusion, drunken-like behaviour, dizziness and vomiting. It has even been used as a bioweapon. In 65 BC, for example, Mithridates VI Eupator, ruler of the kingdom of Pontus in Northern Anatolia, strategically left out honeycombs of mad honey to tempt enemy Roman troops, then slaughtered them as they lay around dazed and confused.

I think I’ll stick to my local stuff, which may not do anything for my hay fever, but at least won’t send me mad. I’m disappointed to learn that honey probably isn’t that much better for my health than straight sugar, but it does bring me great joy, and what’s sweeter than that.

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Elon Musk has reached a settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) after a years-long dispute with the regulator over the timing of his disclosure that he had acquired a significant stake in Twitter. Musk agreed to pay a $1.5 million fee without admitting wrongdoing in exchange for the SEC dropping its case, the regulator said.

If the settlement is approved by a court, it will bring to an end the drawn out battle over how he began his $44 billion takeover of Twitter in 2022. The SEC began investigating Musk that same year over his 11-day delay in disclosing that he had acquired a more than 5 percent stake in the company. That lag, the SEC argued in a lawsuit, ultimately saved Musk more than $150 million at the expense of Twitter shareholders.

During the course of its investigation, the SEC accused Musk of using “gamesmanship” to stall its probe as he repeatedly dodged the regulator’s subpoena. Musk, in turn, accused then-SEC chair Gary Gensler of “harassment.” Gensler left his post days after the lawsuit against Musk was filed as President Donald Trump took office. 

The 1.5 million penalty is “the largest in SEC history for the type of ‌violation ⁠he was accused of,” according to Reuters.

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President Donald Trump said he would increase tariffs charged to the European Union for cars and trucks to 25%, without saying what authority he would use to raise the levies.

“Based on the fact the European Union is not complying with our fully agreed to Trade Deal, next week I will be increasing Tariffs charged to the European Union for Cars and Trucks coming into the United States,” he wrote on Truth Social on Friday. “The Tariff will be increased to 25%. It is fully understood and agreed that, if they produce Cars and Trucks in U.S.A. Plants, there will be NO TARIFF.”

The Supreme Court ruled in February that a large part of Trump’s tariff agenda was illegal. The president’s “reciprocal” tariffs were invoked using a novel reading of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, but the high court said in a 6-3 majority that the law that undergirds those import duties “does not authorize the President to impose tariffs.”

Shortly after the Supreme Court ruling, Trump said he signed an executive order imposing a new 10% “global tariff” rate to effectively replace the IEEPA duties, though those tariffs came with a 150-day time limit under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. He then said he would increase the global rate to 15%.

The EU in February had warned that its trade deal with the U.S. could be in jeopardy after the new tariff rate was announced and postponed its planned vote on the agreement.

The European Union said it is following standard legislative practice and keeping the U.S. administration up to date.

“We maintain close contact with our counterparts, including as we also seek clarity on US commitments,” a a European Commission spokesperson said. “We remain fully committed to a predictable, mutually beneficial transatlantic relationship. Should the US take measures inconsistent with the Joint Statement, we will keep our options open to protect EU interests.”

A White House official said in a statement Friday that the EU has “failed to make substantial progress on their agreed-upon commitments” under a trade agreement between the countries.

“The White House has always been clear that the President reserves the right to adjust tariff rates if our trade deal partners fail to abide by their commitments,” the official said.

The Trump administration last year broadly implemented 25% tariffs on vehicles and certain auto parts imported into the U.S., citing national security risks under Section 232. Those levies are still in place, and the White House said Trump would increase the EU’s levies under Section 232.

The European automakers that could most be impacted by a change in tariff rate would be Mercedes, BMW and Volkswagen, which import a large percentage of the vehicles they sell in the U.S. from their plants in Europe.

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In an advisory over the weekend, TRB said Metro Pacific Tollways Corp. (MPTC), through its unit, will begin collecting tolls of P59 for Class 1 vehicles, P117 for Class 2, and P176 for Class 3 vehicles traveling between Dr. A. Santos Avenue (Sucat Road) in Parañaque City and Taguig City starting Tuesday.

Motorists traveling between Taguig and Roxas Boulevard or Zapote will pay P97 for Class 1, P194 for Class 2, and P291 for Class 3 vehicles.

The project is a joint venture between MPTC subsidiary Cavitex Infrastructure Corp. and the Philippine Reclamation Authority (PRA).

Segment 3B, which opened on March 30, is a two-kilometer toll road linking the 7.7-kilometer CAVITEX C5 Link to the R-1 Expressway and connecting Sucat to C5 Road.

The segment complements earlier phases of the project, including Segment 3A-1 (C5 Flyover to Merville), Segment 3A-2, and Segment 2 (Sucat Interchange to R-1 Expressway), which were completed between 2019 and 2024.

The toll road is expected to cut travel time between Parañaque City and Taguig City to about 15 minutes from as long as 90 minutes.

Since opening on March 30, the segment has been toll-free for a month and has served about 9,000 motorists daily, the TRB said.

MPTC is the tollways unit of Metro Pacific Investments Corp. (MPIC), one of three key Philippine subsidiaries of First Pacific Co. Ltd., alongside Philex Mining Corp. and PLDT Inc.

Hastings Holdings, Inc., a unit of the PLDT Beneficial Trust Fund’s MediaQuest Holdings, Inc., has a majority stake in BusinessWorld through the Philippine Star Group, which it controls. — Ashley Erika O. Jose

PHILIPPINE EXPORTS may fall short of the government’s projections this year amid the ongoing war in the Middle East and uncertainty over the United States’ tariff policies.

University of Asia & the Pacific School of Economics Senior Economist Victor A. Abola said that export target for this year “may be not possible given the global situation.”

Under the Philippine Export Development Plan, exports are projected to hit between $116.1 billion to $120.2 billion this year. This is below the initial target of $186.7 billion.

“I think we should be happy with double-digit growth given the global situation and also the Trump tariffs,” he told reporters last week. “But it depends also on what we would be exporting.”

However, the outlook for exports may be clouded by the Middle East conflict, which has pushed up global oil prices.

Mr. Abola said uncertainty surrounding the US tariff policy may affect Philippine exports. The US remains the Philippines’ biggest export market.

US President Donald J. Trump in February threatened to impose a 15% global tariff on imports, following a US Supreme Court ruling that he had exceeded his authority to levy higher duties under an economic emergency law.

The Philippines was initially hit with a 19% tariff on its exports to the US, although this has since been revoked due to the US Supreme Court’s decision.

To boost export growth, the Philippine government needs to boost investments and explore incentives to support industries like manufacturing, agriculture, and semiconductors, Mr. Abola said.

“What I think should be done is that the BoI (Board of Investments) should give incentives to agriculture, so that big firms can consolidate… [where] they can support the farmers and buy in bulk,” he noted.

Meanwhile, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the Philippines’ entry in the global Pax Silica initiative would help boost its export growth.

“The Pax Silica initiative provides great promise in enticing more foreign direct investments, employment, exports, and other business/economic opportunities for the country in terms of AI-related electronics, rare earths, and other high-tech products,” he said in a Viber message.

The Philippines in April formally joined the Pax Silica, a US-led initiative aimed securing the global AI supply chain across critical minerals, advanced manufacturing, and AI infrastructure.

Current signatories to the Pax Silica initiative include US, Australia, Greece, India, Israel, Japan, Qatar, Republic of Korea, Singapore, United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom, while Taiwan is a non-signatory participant.

“[The Pax Silica would] help attract more suppliers and other high-tech or AI-related companies to locate in the Philippines and effectively do technology transfer,” Mr. Ricafort said.

John Paolo R. Rivera, senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said the government’s export growth target remains “attainable” but challenging amid global uncertainties.

“The target remains attainable but on the lower end of the range, supported by resilient demand in key markets, a weaker peso that improves competitiveness, and gradual recovery in services-related exports,” he said in a Viber message.

Data from the BTr showed that the total gross borrowings fell by 39.4% to P116.66 billion in March from P192.45 billion in the same month in 2025.

Domestic debt accounted for 40% of the total gross borrowings for the month.

In March, the NG’s domestic debt amounted to P46.76 billion, dropping by 70.4% from P157.8 billion in the same month a year earlier. This included the issuance of P55.22 billion in fixed-rate Treasury bonds and a net redemption of P8.47 billion in Treasury bills.

On the other hand, external debt accounted for 60% of the total gross borrowings for the month.

In March, gross external borrowings stood at P69.91 billion, more than double of P34.65 billion in the same month in 2025.

This consisted of program loans amounting to P50.85 billion and project loans worth P19.05 billion. There were no global bonds issued during the month.

Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development Senior Research Fellow Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes said the decline in gross borrowings in March was due to external shocks — “risk aversion, capital flight, and energy-related uncertainty linked to the Middle East war.”

The Philippines, a net importer of oil, has borne the brunt of surging oil prices amid the Middle East conflict. The country relies heavily on Middle East crude oil, which accounts for 98% of its imports.

“Gross financing declined in March largely due to frontloading, with the government having raised a significant portion of its funding requirements in January and February, allowing issuance to normalize,” said China Banking Corp. Chief Economist Domini S. Velasquez in a Viber message.

“Elevated amortization also reduced the need for fresh borrowing,” she added.

In the January-to-March period, the NG’s gross borrowings jumped by 34.7% to P1 trillion from P745.14 billion in the same period last year.

This represents 37.4% of the P2.68-trillion gross borrowings program for the year under the Budget of Expenditures and Sources of Financing 2026.

Domestic debt accounted for the bulk or 72.8% of total gross borrowings in the first quarter.

Gross domestic borrowings surged by 62.2% to P731.1 billion in the first three months from P450.8 billion in the same period a year ago. This represents 35.6% of the P2.05-trillion gross domestic borrowings program for the year.

This was composed of P644.77 billion in fixed-rate Treasury bonds and P86.335 billion in Treasury bills.

As of end-March, gross external debt declined by 7.4% to P272.56 billion from P294.34 billion a year ago. This represented 43.5% of the P627.1-billion program for the year.

External borrowings consisted of P161.29 billion in global bonds, P79.78 billion in program loans, and P31.5 billion in project loans.

“A rebound is possible in the coming months, especially as government support measures take effect, but it will likely be gradual and highly dependent on how the geopolitical situation evolves rather than on purely domestic policy actions,” Mr. Peña-Reyes said via Facebook Messenger.

Rising oil prices and dwindling reserves have pushed the government to place the country under a one-year state of energy emergency and suspend excise taxes on kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas.

Authorities have also rolled out subsidies and fuel discounts to the vulnerable sectors to cushion the impact of the conflict. 

Ms. Velasquez said the government’s move to frontload borrowings was “advantageous… as it limited exposure to rising global yields” in March.

“However, the outlook appears more challenging, with conditions likely to be rocky moving forward amid higher interest rates, a more pronounced risk-off environment, and a more hawkish monetary policy backdrop,” she added. — Justine Irish D. Tabile

SHARP increases in fuel, electricity, and some food prices, along with a weaker peso, may have driven Philippine inflation to its fastest pace in more than two years, analysts said.

A BusinessWorld poll of 17 analysts yielded a median estimate of 5.5% for the consumer price index in April, accelerating from the 4.1% in March and 1.4% a year ago.

This is a tad below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 5.6%-6.4% forecast for the month.

If realized, the headline print would be the fastest in over two and a half years or since the 6.1% seen in September 2023.

April would also mark the second straight month that inflation settled above the central bank’s 2%-4% target.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release the April inflation data on Tuesday, May 5.

“Higher petroleum, transport and select food prices are the key culprits for the uptick,” Emilio S. Neri, Jr., lead economist of the Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI), said.

Fuel prices remained elevated in April, as the Middle East war continued. The Philippines, as a net oil importer of crude oil, makes it extremely vulnerable to global crude price swings.

“Fuel and transport also exerted upward pressure amid volatile global oil prices. These outweighed easing base effects, keeping headline inflation elevated,” Union Bank of the Philippines Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said.

Pump price adjustments in April resulted in a net decrease of P0.58 per liter for gasoline, P28.18 per liter for diesel, and P17.71 per liter for kerosene.

Security Bank Financial Markets Segment Research Head and Chief Economist Angelo B. Taningco said April inflation was also driven by higher electricity rates, as well as the peso depreciation.

Manila Electric Co. raised rates by P0.5335 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), bringing the overall rate to P14.3496 per kWh for April.

The peso closed at P61.485 a dollar on April 30, weakening by 73.7 centavos from its P60.748 close on March 31. It hit a record low of P61.567 on April 29.

Deepali Bhargava, regional head of research for Asia-Pacific at ING, said higher rice prices are another source of inflationary pressures as Asian rice prices are going up due to soaring prices of fuel and fertilizer.

“Supply constraints are likely to intensify as fertilizer shortages persist, exacerbating upward pressure on rice prices and adding further to overall inflation in the Philippines,” she said in an e-mail.

Rice prices further climbed in April, with the average cost of regular milled rice rising by 15.9% to P51.53 in the April 15 to 17 period from P44.44 a year earlier.

The price of well-milled rice jumped by 15.3% year on year to P58.88 a kilo, while the price of special rice rose by an annual 9.8% to P66.23 per kilo.

Domini S. Velasquez, chief economist at China Banking Corp., said she sees inflation accelerating to 6.2%, citing upward pressure from higher prices of key food items such as meat, fruits, eggs and cooking oil, as well as a hike in water rates.

The Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System Regulatory Office approved a rate hike of P0.04 per cubic meter (cu.m.) for Manila Water Co., Inc. and an increase of P0.09 per cu.m. for Maynilad Water Services, Inc. The rate adjustments were implemented starting April 1.

MORE RATE HIKES
With inflation likely to stay elevated in the next few months, several analysts see the BSP remaining on a tightening path.

“We expect inflation to remain above the target range. The BSP may not tighten at every meeting, but it will maintain a clear tightening bias,” said Alpine Macro Chief Emerging Markets & China Strategist Yan Wang in an e-mail.

BPI’s Mr. Neri said the BSP’s latest rate hike will help temper inflation expectations.

“A lot more rate hikes will be necessary, with outsized intermeeting or off-cycle hikes even possible,” he said.

The central bank hiked its key rate for the first time in over two years in a policy meeting on April 23, bringing the benchmark rate to 4.5%.

“Inflation will likely be above the 2-4% target band for the rest of the year. Our new rate outlook pencils in two more 25-basis-point hikes this year to bring the policy rate to 5%, though risks are tilted towards more hikes if tensions escalate in the Middle East,” said University of Asia and the Pacific Economist Marco Antonio C. Agonia in an e-mail.

Mr. Asuncion said the rate hike will help “limit second-round effects, anchor expectations, and support currency and financial stability over the medium term.”

Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corp. Economist Patrick M. Ella said policy rates have a slow impact over time.

“Inflation will have to be above the BSP upper-bond tolerance rate for an extended period, hence seeing more rate hikes … I see a full year between a total of 2 to 3 rate hikes,” he said in an e-mail.

The central bank is now expecting the headline print to remain above 5% for the rest of the year, amid price pressures from elevated oil costs and second-round inflation effects.

If the BusinessWorld poll’s median forecast materializes, headline inflation would average 3.5% as of April, still below the BSP’s revised inflation estimate of 6.3% for the entire year.

“Private consumption in the Philippines remains on a weak footing. The central bank will likely keep an eye on the extent to which weak demand could stem the spillover effects of food and energy on inflation,” said HSBC Global Investment Research Senior ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Economist Aris D. Dacanay in an e-mail.

However, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Emerging Asia Economist Miguel Chanco said that inflation above the target range should not immediately result in further rate hikes.

“I do expect inflation to remain above the target range for some time this year, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that the BSP should continue to hike rates, as the chances of this supply-side-induced inflation shock filtering through to stronger demand-side price pressures are very small, given the still-weak state of the economy,” he added.

Maybank Investment Bank Economist Azril Rosli, who estimates April inflation at 5%, said inflation may be approaching its peak, “reducing the urgency for immediate further tightening.”

“As such, the BSP may opt to pause at its next meeting to assess the impact of recent policy actions, while retaining a tightening bias should inflation prove more persistent,” he added.

The Monetary Board will hold its next policy review on June 18.

THE Philippine economy likely lost momentum in the first quarter, weighed down by weak household purchasing power, subdued government spending, fragile business confidence, and rising global energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict, economists said.

Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew by 3.4% in the January to March period, according to a median forecast of 21 economists and analysts polled by BusinessWorld.

If realized, this would be slower than the revised 5.4% expansion recorded in the first quarter of 2025, and fall short of the government’s 5%-6% target for this year.

However, it would be a tad faster than the 3% growth in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The Philippine Statistics Authority is scheduled to release first quarter GDP data on May 7.

“Household consumption [is] slated to moderate as consumers work to manage debt and deal with higher energy costs,” Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa, chief economist at the Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co., said in an e-mail.

Mr. Mapa, who sees 3.4% GDP growth for the first quarter, said government spending is also expected to fall short, based on the latest disbursement figures, alongside capital formation, which continues to feel the impact of the monetary policy tightening carried out in 2022 to 2024.

“We had begun to see a modest pickup to start the year, but this likely faded in March due to the heightened risk off tone,” Mr. Mapa said, adding that tight monetary conditions continue to weigh on growth.

Azril Rosli, an economist at Maybank Investment Bank, said he sees 4.5% GDP expansion in the first quarter, in line with underlying domestic demand but also reflects pressure from rising inflation and global uncertainty.

“The estimate reflects a balance between still-resilient domestic demand supported by government spending and services activity and early headwinds from higher inflation, which is beginning to erode household purchasing power. Investment remains steady but cautious, while external demand is broadly stable,” Mr. Rosli said in an e-mail.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, household consumption, which accounts for more than 70% of GDP, grew by 3.8% — the weakest pace since the 4.8% contraction recorded in the first quarter of 2021.

Government final consumption expenditure, which made up 12% of the GDP, grew by 0.7% in the fourth quarter, slower than the 5.8% in the third quarter and the 9.5% expansion in the last three months of 2024.

On the other hand, the country’s gross capital formation, the investment component of the economy, fell by 9.4% in the last three months of 2025, steeper than the 2% decline in the third quarter and a reversal from the 5.8% growth in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Capital outlays made up nearly 20% of the country’s GDP in the fourth quarter.

Marco Antonio C. Agonia, an economist at the University of Asia and the Pacific, said GDP likely grew by 3.1% year on year due to the “lingering impacts from the loss in confidence from the flood control scandal and mounting economic headwinds from the Middle East war.”

“National Government underspending in the first quarter will likely dent growth performance, especially compared against last year’s frontloaded infrastructure spending pattern. Consumer spending will be accordingly subdued, lacking multiplier effects from government spending,” he said in an e-mail.

MIDDLE EAST IMPACT?
Domini S. Velasquez, chief economist at China Banking Corp., said that Philippine GDP growth likely expanded by 3.3% in the first quarter, primarily due to the global energy shock arising from conflict in the Middle East.

“On the production side, services activity slowed, particularly in the transport sector, as households and firms adjusted behavior in response to surging fuel prices. These adjustments included wider adoption of work-from-home arrangements, reduced operations among public utility vehicles, and flight cancellations,” she said.

The US-Israel war on Iran, which began on Feb. 28, has disrupted global oil supplies and drove crude oil prices up by around 50%.

The Philippines is a net importer of crude oil and sources most of its supply from the Middle East, the world’s biggest oil-producing region.

Philippine National Bank Economist Alvin Joseph A. Arogo said that GDP growth remained sluggish mainly due to the “weak consumer and business confidence due to the lingering impact of the corruption probe and the conflict in the Middle East.”

Miguel Chanco, chief emerging Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said that while he sees 3.8% GDP growth in the first quarter, this does not yet reflect the impact of the oil crisis.

“It’ll be some time before the economic indicators will ‘feel’ the energy price crisis caused by the war in the Middle East. It certainly won’t be a major factor in the Q1 GDP numbers. Nevertheless, the main squeeze it is likely to cause from Q2 and beyond is on already-subdued private consumption growth, which is only starting to show signs of stabilizing,” he said.

FASTER INFLATION
For Patrick M. Ella, an economist at Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corp., said inflationary pressures likely dented consumer activity.

Headline inflation accelerated to 4.1% in March. This was the quickest pace in nearly two years or since the 4.4% in July 2024, and likewise marked the first time since then that the headline print breached the BSP’s 2%-4% target.

For the first three months, headline inflation averaged 2.8%.

“The jump in March inflation matters because it signals that the pass-through from the oil shock had already begun. Once fuel and freight costs rise, they start feeding into food, transport, and other essentials, which weakens household purchasing power,” Marites M. Tiongco, professor and dean of the School of Economics at the De La Salle University, said in an e-mail.

Harumi Taguchi, principal economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said high inflation and weaker remittances may have kept real private consumption weak in the first quarter and will continue to do so in the next quarters.

The Philippine central bank now expects inflation to average 6.3% this year and 4.3% next year, both above its 4% ceiling, before returning to its tolerance range in 2028.

OUTLOOK
Meanwhile, economists expect the second quarter GDP data to reflect the full impact of the global oil shock.

“I would expect Q2 growth to slow to around 3.6% to 4.2%, because that is when households are more likely to feel the full impact of the oil shock through higher food, transport, and electricity costs. Once purchasing power weakens, consumer spending also softens, and that becomes a real drag on growth,” Ms. Tiongco said.

Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at the Union Bank of the Philippines, said the growth outlook will depend on the “persistence of oil driven inflation pressures, the pace of fiscal execution in the coming quarters, and policy calibration.”

S&P Global’s Ms. Taguchi, expects GDP to remain weak in the second quarter.

“Given that the major impact on the economy is caused by price and supply shocks, it would be effective if the programs included diversification of the sources of imported oil,” she said.

For Jun Hao Ng, assistant economist at Oxford Economics, the country’s economic performance in the second quarter will likely be modest as oil prices likely remain elevated.

“We should continue to see strong inflation through the quarter, which will put a cap on any strong recovery that was initially expected prior to the US/Israel-Iran conflict. To maintain economic growth, the government is likely to launch more targeted fuel subsidies, although fiscal constraints will limit the extent of the programs,” he said.

Water bottles have become comically large in recent years, as health influencers urge us to drink more water for glowing skin, better brain function, improved athletic performance and just about everything else. But is gulping down litres of water a day really necessary? And can you overdo it? Tamara Hew-Butler is a physiologist who has been studying hydration for over two decades and is currently the medical research director of the Western States Endurance Run in California, one of the most gruelling ultramarathons in the world, which requires careful hydration planning. She’s here to pour water on some of the common myths.

1. Myth: Everyone should aim to drink at least 6 to 8 glasses of water per day

The amount of water required per day differs for everybody, and it even varies for each person on a daily basis. You always hear that everybody needs 2 litres a day, which is about eight glasses, but there isn’t a one-size-fits-all rule. If you weigh 45 kilograms and you sit at your desk all day, you probably aren’t going to need as much water as a 100-kilogram rugby player who is outside in the sun.

How much an individual needs to drink should basically match how much water they lose during the day. We don’t know how much water we are losing, but that’s why we have thirst. The brain is always sampling your blood and if you need more water, it creates the sensation of thirst so you drink more, and that protects you from dehydration. If you get thirsty and don’t drink, the sensation of thirst gets stronger and stronger until you do.

There is a misconception that, by the time you start to feel thirsty, it’s too late: your body is running out of water. But this is just the point where you might need a little bit more water in your system. Personally, I just drink when I’m thirsty. As a general rule, that works for 98 per cent of people.

2. Myth: It’s better to hydrate with plain water than coffee

I don’t drink plain water myself because I don’t like it. Instead, I drink a couple of cups of coffee in the morning, and I eat soup, fruit, vegetables and smoothies, which all contain water. I only drink plain water if I’m outside, I’m really thirsty and I have nothing else to drink. Otherwise, I get all the water I need from other fluids and foods that contain it.

It’s a misconception that you shouldn’t hydrate with coffee because it’s a diuretic. It isn’t actually a diuretic – when you have a cup of coffee, it’s the water content that makes you need to pee, not the caffeine. Alcohol is different, though: it is a diuretic, so drinking beer and wine will make you pee more.

3. Myth: Topping up with extra water when you aren’t thirsty provides additional health benefits

There aren’t really any health benefits to drinking more water than you need, other than maybe helping to lose weight because it fills your stomach so you might eat less. Your body regulates its water levels quite strictly, so, if you drink a little bit more, you just pee out a little bit more. There’s not a lot of scientific evidence to say that drinking large amounts of water make your skin clearer, helps with constipation, is good for your immune system or the other things you hear.

It’s not going to hurt, though, unless you do it to excess. I actually got into hydration research to begin with after two runners died from drinking too much water during marathons. When you drink too much water, it dilutes the sodium in your blood, a condition known as hyponatraemia. That can make your brain swell, and if your brain swells so much it runs out of room, then you die instantly.

Estimates suggest that drinking 3 to 4 litres of water within a one-hour span can lead to signs and symptoms associated with hyponatremia. These signs and symptoms include headache, nausea, and bloating.

4. Myth: Sports drinks are essential when you are exercising

People often think they need to hydrate with sports drinks when they are exercising. These contain electrolytes like sodium and potassium to replace the electrolytes you lose in sweat. But most studies show that you only need those extra electrolytes if you are doing very intense exercise, like for over 17 hours in a hot climate that you are not used to. Even if you exercise for 2, 3, 4 hours a day, you will replace the small amount of electrolytes you lose with the foods you take in afterwards. Sports drinks also contain carbohydrates, which can be beneficial if you are running out of carbohydrates while doing very intense exercise. But most of us don’t need them.

As told to Alice Klein

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If you bought a digital game on the PlayStation Store between April 2019 and December 2023, you may soon receive some store credit in your account. A federal judge in San Francisco granted preliminary approval of a proposed $7.85 million settlement for a class action lawsuit that accused Sony of eliminating competition and monopolizing the market for its digital games through the PlayStation Store.

The lawsuit was first filed in May 2021 and claims that Sony’s alleged anticompetitive conduct caused gamers to “pay more than they otherwise would have paid for certain digital games.” The legal action comes after Sony eliminated “game-specific vouchers” sold by third-party companies in April 2019, which the lawsuit argued could have resulted in lower prices on the PlayStation Store if customers had alternative options through other retailers like Best Buy, GameStop and others.

The law firm representing affected users posted a list of eligible games, which includes The Last of Us, NBA 2K18 and Need for Speed Rivals, and said there are more than 4.4 million eligible PlayStation Network accounts. For anyone who qualifies as part of the class action settlement, you’ll see your PSN account credited once the final approvals are in. The court will have a Fairness Hearing on October 15, which will see the final judgement and the plan for allocating the millions of dollars to eligible accounts.

Notably, this lawsuit is separate from another similar legal action that was filed in the UK. Also a class action lawsuit, the case accuses Sony of “unfairly charging its UK customers too much for digital games and in-game content purchased through the PlayStation Store.” Unlike this recent settlement, Sony could pay up to $2.7 billion to UK residents as a result of alleged antitrust actions.

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NHS England is hurriedly withdrawing all the software it has written from public view because of the perceived risk of hacking from cutting-edge artificial intelligence. Security experts say the move is unnecessary and counterproductive.

Software produced by the National Health Service has previously been made open-source and listed on GitHub because it is created with public money. This allows other organisations to build upon it and make better services more cheaply without duplicating effort.

But NHS England has issued new guidance to staff, which has been shared with New Scientist, that demands existing and future software be pulled from public view and kept behind closed doors. “All source code repositories must be private by default. Repositories must not be public unless there is an explicit and exceptional need, and public access has been formally approved,” says the new guidance. The deadline for making code private is 11 May.

Last month, an AI created by Anthropic called Mythos was widely reported to be capable of discovering flaws in virtually any software, potentially allowing hackers to break into systems running it.

NHS England’s guidance specifically points to Mythos as the cause for the new measures. “Public repositories materially increase the risk of unintended disclosure of source code, architectural decisions, configuration detail, and contextual information that may be exploited – particularly given rapid advancements in Al models capable of large-scale code ingestion, inference, and reasoning (e.g. developments such as the Mythos model),” it reads. “This red line establishes a default-closed posture for code while the organisation assesses the impact of these changes and ensures that any public publication of code is a deliberate, reviewed, and justified decision.”

However, the UK government-backed AI Security Institute (AISI) investigated Mythos and found it to be capable of attacking only “small, weakly defended and vulnerable enterprise systems”, concluding there was no indication that a really secure bit of software or network would be at risk.

The new measures go against the NHS service standard, which demands that staff make any software they produce open-source. “Public services are built with public money. So unless there’s a good reason not to, the code they’re based [on] should be made available for other people to reuse and build on. Open-source code can save teams [from] duplicating effort and help them build better services faster,” says the previous guidance.

Open-source software for public services also creates greater trust and transparency. For instance, if the code for the Horizon IT system that led the UK’s Post Office to pursue innocent people for alleged theft and fraud had been public, then the scandal might not have continued for years.

Terence Eden, who has extensive experience in the UK Civil Service working on opening access to public data, says the move makes no logical sense.

“Is it possible that Mythos will scan a repository and find a bug? Yes, 100 per cent likely. Is that going to be a bug that causes a security issue in a live NHS service somewhere? Almost certainly not,” says Eden. “I think it’s someone in NHS England buying into the hype that Mythos is going to cause the end of security as we know it and getting a bit panicked.”

Eden says open-source software is actually more secure because lots of people can check it for flaws, and most NHS software is not critically related to security in any case. Crucially, given that the code has been publicly available for years, it will continue to exist in various backups and downloads anyway.

“Shutting it down now is very much bolting the stable door after the horse has gone,” says Eden. “Myself and the people that I’ve spoken to within the NHS are just completely confused as to what this is trying to achieve.”

A spokesperson for NHS England said: “We are temporarily restricting access to some NHS England source code to further strengthen cyber security while we assess the impact of rapid developments in AI models. We will continue to publish source code where there is a clear need.”

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In an ever-changing and continuously evolving business climate, workforce demands have likewise transformed. The need for labor has moved beyond traditional and basic skill sets toward more specialized, technical, and complex competencies. As industries respond to shifting market conditions, customer expectations, technological advancement, and operational pressures, outsourcing has grown into a practical, lawful, and strategic business solution.

Today, outsourcing is no longer viewed merely as a support mechanism. It has become an essential component of enterprise strategy, allowing businesses to align their workforce capabilities with the demands of the marketplace. It enables companies to focus on their core functions while engaging qualified service providers to deliver complementary, specialized, or operational support services necessary for efficiency, continuity, and growth.

The relevance of outsourcing cuts across almost every sector of the economy. It is present in retail, manufacturing, hospitality, tourism, food and restaurant operations, logistics, healthcare support, facilities management, and even highly technical industries such as information technology. This broad application reflects the reality that service outsourcing has become deeply embedded in the modern business ecosystem.

For many enterprises, outsourcing serves as a vital operational formula. It provides flexibility, access to skills, cost efficiency, scalability, and continuity. More importantly, it helps companies respond to customer demands with greater speed, focus, and consistency. In this sense, service outsourcing is not merely an option; it is a business necessity that supports organizational growth, strengthens competitiveness, and enables enterprises to flourish in an increasingly demanding market environment.

The Evolution from Manpower Supply to Strategic Business Partner

The concept of service contracting has significantly evolved over the years. What was once commonly perceived as mere “manpower supply” has developed into a more sophisticated, structured, and strategic business solution. In the past, outsourcing was often associated with the deployment of personnel for temporary, routine, or support positions. The focus was largely on headcount, worker availability, and the ability to provide labor when required.

Service outsourcing now has evolved from activities primarily involving menial or basic work into a service model that now caters to more complex roles, including white-collar, technical, administrative, operational, and specialized functions requiring efficiency, accountability, and measurable results.

Today, service contracting has moved beyond simple headcount augmentation. It has become outsourcing with execution capability. Modern service providers do not merely supply people; they deliver specialized services, manage operational requirements, supervise deployed personnel, ensure compliance, and assume accountability for agreed service outcomes. This transformation reflects the growing complexity of business needs and the increasing demand for partners that can provide not only workers, but also systems, structure, expertise, supervision, and performance-based solutions.

This evolution is also evident in the shift from labor deployment to managed outcomes. Companies increasingly require service providers that can support actual business objectives, not merely provide bodies on site. It has has become a means to achieve measurable results.

Equally important is the integration of systems, supervision, and accountability. Responsible outsourcing involves workforce deployment supported by recruitment standards, onboarding procedures, performance monitoring, payroll administration, labor compliance, employee relations management, safety protocols, and supervisory controls. These elements distinguish legitimate service contracting from mere manpower placement.

Properly practiced, outsourcing becomes a strategic partnership that supports business continuity, enhances productivity, strengthens customer service capability, and contributes meaningfully to employment generation and economic growth.

Outsourcing and Global Competitiveness

Legitimate job contracting is a lawful and effective mechanism that helps protect employer competitiveness in a globalized and ASEAN-integrated business environment. In today’s market, companies compete not only with local businesses, but also with regional and international players that operate with speed, flexibility, specialization, and cost efficiency. For this reason, enterprises must be allowed to adopt legitimate business models that enable them to remain viable, productive, and responsive to changing market demands.

This becomes especially important in the ASEAN business environment, where companies must remain competitive in terms of cost, quality, speed, innovation, and service delivery. A rigid approach that weakens or disregards legitimate job contracting may place local businesses at a disadvantage, discourage investment, limit expansion, and reduce employment opportunities.

It must therefore be emphasized that the issue is not the existence of job contracting, but the distinction between legitimate service contracting and illegal labor-only contracting. The latter should be prohibited and penalized, but the former should be protected as a lawful, regulated, and necessary business model. When properly practiced, legitimate job contracting supports both employer competitiveness and employment creation, making it a vital instrument for business sustainability and national economic growth.

Industry Misconceptions

Service contracting is often viewed with suspicion because of past abuses linked to labor-only contracting, “endo,” wage circumvention, and unstable work arrangements. These concerns are valid when the arrangement is illegal or designed to defeat workers’ rights. However, it is important to distinguish unlawful labor-only contracting from legitimate service contracting, which is recognized and regulated under Philippine Labor Laws.

One common misconception is that all service contracting is a means to avoid regular employment. In legitimate arrangements, the service contractor is the direct employer of its workers and is responsible for recruitment, supervision, payroll, discipline, statutory benefits, and compliance with labor standards. Workers are not left without protection; they are covered by an employer that is legally bound to observe their rights.

Another misconception is that outsourced workers have no security of tenure. In truth, employees of legitimate contractors are likewise protected by law. Their employment cannot be terminated without just or authorized cause and due process. While their deployment to a particular client may change depending on business requirements and service agreements, their employment relationship with the contractor remains governed by labor laws and standards.

There is also a perception that contractors merely profit from workers. This overlooks the fact that legitimate service providers assume real operational and legal responsibilities, including hiring, training, supervision, HR administration, compliance monitoring, employee relations, payroll management, and service accountability. They are not mere middlemen; they are organized enterprises that support business operations while providing lawful and gainful employment.

DO 174: The Lawful Framework for Ending Abuse Without Ending Legitimate Outsourcing In the continuing discourse on labor protection, security of tenure, and the future of service contracting in the Philippines, it is important to recognize that the law has already established a regulatory framework intended to address the very abuses often associated with outsourcing.

Department Order No. 174, Series of 2017, issued by the Department of Labor and Employment, serves as a key instrument in combatting industry malpractices, particularly labor-only contracting, “endo,” and the so-called “5-5-5” employment practice. It was issued precisely to regulate contracting and subcontracting arrangements, prohibit labor-only contracting, and prevent schemes that impair workers’ rights and security of tenure.

The strength of DO 174 lies in its clear distinction between legitimate service contracting and laboronly contracting. It does not outlaw lawful outsourcing. Rather, it prohibits abusive arrangements where the contractor merely supplies workers, lacks substantial capital or investment, or does not exercise control and supervision over its employees. This distinction is critical because it protects workers from exploitative practices while allowing compliant contractors to continue providing lawful, gainful, and organized employment.

One of the most important contributions of DO 174 is that it directly addresses the concern on security of tenure. Under a legitimate contracting arrangement, the service contractor is the employer of the deployed workers and is responsible for observing labor laws, including the payment of wages, statutory benefits, general labor standards, due process, and lawful termination procedures. Workers cannot simply be dismissed at will. Their rights are protected by existing labor laws and regulations, and any termination must be based on just or authorized cause and must comply with due process.

For policymakers, this distinction must be carefully recognized. Any policy response must avoid treating all service contractors as violators. Such an approach risks punishing compliant businesses, reducing employment opportunities, increasing business costs, discouraging investment, and weakening industries that depend on legitimate outsourcing for operational support. The better policy direction is to strengthen enforcement against illegal labor-only contracting while protecting legitimate service contracting as a lawful, regulated, and necessary business practice.

The positive change introduced by DO 174 is that it professionalized the service contracting industry. It compels contractors to operate with structure, capital, systems, supervision, and accountability. It protects workers from abusive arrangements while preserving the legitimate role of outsourcing in business operations. In this sense, DO 174 serves both labor and business: it safeguards employee rights while allowing enterprises to remain efficient, competitive, and capable of generating employment.

PALSCON: A Partner of Government in Building a Compliant and Responsible Service Contracting Industry The Philippine Association of Legitimate Service Contractors, Inc., or PALSCON, stands as the prime industry leader and flagship organization of legitimate service contracting in the Philippines. It represents responsible and compliant service contractors that recognize outsourcing not as a means to defeat workers’ rights, but as a lawful and regulated business model that supports employment generation, business continuity, and national productivity.

PALSCON’s advantage lies in the fact that its members operate within the framework of law, regulation, and industry accountability. Unlike fly-by-night agencies that exist merely to supply workers, evade labor standards, undercut pricing, or disappear when obligations arise, legitimate contractors affiliated with PALSCON are expected to uphold compliance with labor laws, general labor standards, statutory benefits, due process, and lawful employment practices.

This distinction is crucial because the true violators are not legitimate service contractors, but unregulated and non-compliant operators that misuse contracting arrangements to the prejudice of workers, responsible businesses, and the integrity of the industry. Fly-by-night agencies damage the reputation of service contracting, distort fair competition through unsustainable pricing, and expose workers to unpaid wages, unpaid benefits, and unstable employment. PALSCON, by contrast, promotes responsible contracting anchored on capital, supervision, accountability, compliance systems, and employer responsibility.

As the collective voice of the legitimate service contracting industry, PALSCON supports government initiatives aimed at protecting workers and eliminating abusive practices such as laboronly contracting, “endo,” and arrangements that defeat security of tenure. The organization does not oppose regulation. On the contrary, it supports reasonable and effective regulation because it professionalizes the industry, raises standards, removes unscrupulous operators, and protects workers from exploitation.

What PALSCON seeks to prevent is the unfair treatment of all service contractors as violators. A broad and indiscriminate approach risks punishing compliant enterprises while allowing the real offenders to simply reappear under another name or business form. PALSCON therefore advocates for a balanced policy framework that targets abuse, penalizes violators, and preserves legitimate contracting as a lawful and employment-generating industry.

PALSCON also recognizes that worker protection must be pursued without unnecessarily encroaching on legitimate management prerogatives. Businesses must retain the right to organize operations, engage specialized services, manage costs, and remain competitive. At the same time, workers must be assured of lawful wages, statutory benefits, security of tenure, due process, and humane working conditions. These objectives are not conflicting; they can co-exist through a fair regulatory framework that protects labor while allowing businesses to remain viable.

In this context, PALSCON serves as an important partner of government and lawmakers. It provides practical industry perspective in the crafting of laws and policies affecting service contracting. Its advocacy is not to weaken labor protection, but to ensure that such protection is properly directed against abusive and non-compliant entities, rather than against legitimate contractors that provide lawful employment and support business operations.

Ultimately, PALSCON stands for a clear and balanced advocacy: protect workers, penalize violators, eliminate fly-by-night operators, preserve management prerogative, and sustain legitimate service contracting as a lawful and employment-generating industry. Its presence is essential in ensuring that the industry remains compliant, accountable, and aligned with both business growth and worker protection.

Preserving the Beauty and Legitimacy of Service Contracting

Legitimate service contracting must be appreciated for what it truly is: a lawful, regulated, and necessary business model that supports both enterprise growth and employment generation. It is not inherently antilabor, nor is it designed to defeat security of tenure. When practiced in accordance with law, service contracting provides workers with formal employment, statutory benefits, supervision, due process, and opportunities for livelihood across multiple industries. The beauty of legitimate service contracting lies in its balance. It allows businesses to remain efficient, focused, competitive, and responsive to market demands, while ensuring that workers are protected under existing labor standards. It bridges business necessity with social responsibility. It supports productivity without sacrificing legality. It enables flexibility without abandoning accountability.

In this continuing effort, PALSCON remains the prime industry leader of legitimacy. As a partner of government, a voice of compliant contractors, and a guardian of responsible outsourcing, PALSCON plays a vital role in ensuring that service contracting continues to serve the interests of business, labor, and the Philippine economy.

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Speaking in front of the delegates, Pioneer Insurance Group Head Lorenzo Chan called on delegates to turn insights into meaningful action that creates lasting change.

“This is not a corporate social responsibility effort. This is not a do-good mission where you feel good afterwards. This is a viable business proposition that empowers people and enables them to take control of their lives,” Mr. Chan said.

Bert Opdebeeck, founder of Microinsurance Master, said the initiative aims to inspire leaders from around the world by demonstrating that inclusive insurance models can be both impactful and sustainable.

“What Pioneer is demonstrating clearly is that you can do well by doing good, that you can scale microinsurance in a sustainable, profitable way while providing tremendous value to the people you serve,” he said.

In one of the Microinsurance Master learning sessions, Wilma Conde, Officer-In-Charge of the Microinsurance Division of the Insurance Commission of the Philippines, highlighted how microinsurance has become a key instrument protecting underserved communities, particularly those earning below the minimum wage who are often the most vulnerable to disasters, illness, and economic shocks.

Ms. Conde explained that the Philippines has developed a strong regulatory framework that ensures microinsurance products remain affordable, simple, and accessible while still providing meaningful protection for life, property, and livelihood risks.

Among the delegates, Mary Takavarasha, Manager for Insurance Prudential Supervision at IPEC in Zimbabwe, said the experience challenged conventional thinking in the insurance industry, “When you are dealing with microinsurance, you have to learn to unlearn. It’s not conventional insurance.”

Meanwhile, Leona Abban, General Manager for Partnerships at Impact Life Insurance in Ghana, noted that the Philippine model underscored the importance of building solutions around the realities of low-income communities.

“Start from the customer, understand where they are, how they operate, what they use, and then deliver the solutions,” Ms. Abban said.

Andrew Kulayige, CEO of Britam in Rwanda also emphasized the importance of adopting a different mindset when working in the sector.

“We cannot play in the microinsurance sector with a corporate mindset. We must play in that sector with a microinsurance mindset,” he said, adding that the lessons from the Philippines highlight how partnerships and community engagement can help expand financial inclusion in emerging markets.

The Philippines has become a regular venue for the international initiative. With Pioneer widely recognized as a global standard for microinsurance, the country has hosted Microinsurance Master in 2018, 2019, 2022, and 2024 before welcoming another cohort this year.

Over the years, Pioneer’s leadership in the field has already inspired 168 decision makers from 107 organizations in 49 countries, many of whom have returned to their markets with new approaches to expanding financial protection for low-income communities.

By continuing to open its doors to global practitioners, Pioneer reinforces the Philippines’ role as a learning hub for microinsurance and demonstrates how inclusive insurance models developed locally can help strengthen financial resilience in communities around the world.

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Highlighted in this year’s participation is “The Carrier Air Authority Center,” the country’s first and only retail air conditioning (AC) franchise by Concepcion-Carrier Air Conditioning Company. Designed to democratize business ownership, the model brings world-class cooling solutions and expert services directly into local communities, leveraging Carrier’s legacy of over 100 years of global innovation.

The Carrier Air Authority Center introduces a dedicated avenue to support customers while complementing CIC’s established retail network. The model allows local business owners to become trusted cooling experts, backed by a tried-and-tested operating system.

“We believe the future of Philippine business is local,” said Phillip F. Trapaga, President of Concepcion-Carrier Air Conditioning Company. “The Carrier Air Authority Center is not only about service expansion, but about sharing our world-class operating standards and opening new opportunities for Filipino entrepreneurs to become true Carrier experts in their communities. We are committed to empowering a nationwide network of independent, thriving business owners who will elevate the standard of living in their own neighborhoods.”

The Carrier Air Authority Center stands out through its solutions-selling approach, moving beyond traditional product transactions to deliver long-term value for customers. Central to this model is a comprehensive 4-in-1 revenue stream designed to maximize customer lifetime value and ensure a steady, diversified income.
 
Franchisees can rapidly scale through:

• Product Sales: Offering globally trusted and highly efficient cooling solutions.

• Parts Revenue: Providing original Totaline parts that sustain long-term system performance.

• Installation Services: Building immediate customer confidence through expert, brand-certified installations.

• Maintenance & Repairs: Securing consistent, year-round cash flow by serving as the preferred provider for after-sales support.

This integrated strategy positions franchisees for sustainable growth while strengthening customer relationships at every stage of the ownership lifecycle.

To ensure unparalleled market focus for its partners, the program operates on a strict guarantee of territorial exclusivity: One municipality. One franchisee. “We are giving our partners the power to completely own their market with a proven system of play in place,” explained Ramon Antonio Medina, General Manager of Concepcion-Carrier Air Conditioning Company. “By granting exclusive territorial rights and unlocking our 4-in-1 revenue ecosystem, our franchisees can dedicate their resources to achieving a deep brand loyalty relationship with their community. Backed by our comprehensive support from set-up to technical training, they focus entirely on becoming the highly profitable, undisputed cooling authority in their city.”

Entrepreneurs and prospective partners are invited to explore the future of local business at the 2026 Franchise Asia Philippines International Expo. Visit the Carrier Booth at the 2^nd Level of SMX Convention Center to learn how the Carrier Air Authority Center can transform your entrepreneurial journey and bring world-class cooling solutions to your city.

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A prominent scientist has predicted 2026 will be the hottest year on record, thanks to both climate change and a powerful El Niño effect that will raise temperatures further.

The record is held by 2024, when global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average for the first time.

The second half of this year will almost certainly see the start of El Niño, a natural climate phase when warm water expands across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, heating the entire planet. Some models project it will be a “super El Niño”, and perhaps the strongest ever. Many believe this will set a new global temperature record in 2027, when the full force of the El Niño is felt.

But James Hansen at Columbia University in New York, who famously told the US Congress in 1988 that humans were heating Earth, and his colleagues have now argued in a blog post that the record will be broken already in 2026. “Of course, 2027 will be still hotter,” they added.

Temperatures are currently being suppressed by La Niña, the planet-cooling counterpart of El Niño. The first three months of 2026 were about 0.1°C cooler than the first three months of 2024, on average. The rest of the year would have to be far hotter for 2026 to surpass 2024.

Based on the average effect of the first three months on the yearly temperature, Zeke Hausfather at Berkeley Earth in California projected in Carbon Brief that 2026 would be 1.47°C above the pre-industrial average, making it the second-warmest on record.

But Hansen and his colleagues say this is likely to be an underestimate. While scientists largely agree that global warming is accelerating, mainly because humanity has reduced air pollution that was blocking out sunlight, Hansen has argued the warming rate is even higher than climate models show.

In their post, they note that sea surface temperatures, which are less affected by fluctuations in the weather, suggest the world is now 0.17°C warmer than in 2023, when the 2023-24 El Niño developed. This is a bigger difference than in 2024, when the globe was only 0.11°C warmer than it was in 2023.

“That margin is wide enough that we are willing to make the prediction that 2026 will be the warmest year”, they wrote.

Other scientists aren’t so sure. While the annual forecast in December from the Met Office, the UK’s weather service, projected the next year would be 1.46°C above the pre-industrial average, it gave a range from 1.34°C to 1.58°C. It’s still premature to predict 2026 will beat the 1.55°C recorded in 2024, says Adam Scaife at the Met Office.

“There is uncertainty on these timescales, which means that the best thing you can do is to give a probability,” says Scaife. “Nobody can be 100 per cent confident.”

As the equatorial Pacific has continued to warm and El Niño has become more likely, record global temperatures have also become more likely, but forecasts still show a sweep of possible outcomes, according to John Kennedy at the World Meteorological Organization. “Hansen’s forecast is more definitive, but it is just one method out of a range that are out there,” he says.

In a blog post on 30 April, Hausfather calculated 2026 has a 26 per cent chance of being the hottest year on record and a 56 per cent chance of being the second hottest.

But Scaife says Hansen is right to worry that the rate of global warming may be faster than projected, because that would suggest the CO2 emitted into the atmosphere is warming Earth more than expected. “If climate sensitivity’s higher than people think… that will affect climate change in the future,” he says.

Regardless of the exact global temperature, the world is likely to suffer even worse extreme weather as El Niño starts to bite. Places like Australia and South-East Asia, central and southern Africa, India and the Amazon rainforest will face the risk of heatwaves, drought and wildfires.

“What we all agree about is that the El Niño is going to be on top of an unprecedented level of global warming,” says. “Those two things are likely to give us unprecedented events later this year.”

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First Line Films

Sorry, Val Kilmer fans, but the late actor’s Oscar ship has officially sailed. On Friday, Reuters reported that AI-generated acting and writing won’t be eligible for Academy Awards. The new rules from the Academy ​of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will take effect beginning with next year’s presentation, scheduled for March 2027.

The Academy’s updated rules state that while filmmakers can use AI tools, “synthetic” performers can’t win any awards. Ditto for AI-written screenplays, which must be “human-authored.” The Academy can request more information from submissions to confirm that they were created by humans.

A “performance” that won’t need further clarification is Kilmer’s fully AI-generated appearance in the upcoming indie film, As Deep as the Grave. The actor was initially cast in the movie but had to back out due to medical concerns. (He died in April 2025.) Although Kilmer never stepped foot on set, he will appear in “a significant part” of the movie, according to Variety.

“His family kept saying how important they thought the movie was and that Val really wanted to be a part of this,” said Coerte Voorhees, the film’s writer and director. “He really thought it was [an] important story that he wanted his name on. It was that support that gave me the confidence to say, okay let’s do this. Despite the fact some people might call it controversial, this is what Val wanted.”

Perhaps even more jarring than the AI-generated likeness of a dead actor is the work of a ByteDance tool that has also raised some alarm in the industry. A two-sentence prompt using Seedance 2.0 was all it took to generate a highly convincing 15-second clip of Tom Cruise and Brad Pitt duking it out on a rooftop. (C’mon, Pitt would totally kick his ass.)

The cinematic clip went viral, Hollywood experienced existential panic, and Washington even weighed in. The latest? ByteDance reportedly paused the tool’s rollout while the entertainment industry braces for a future where typing a few words could be all it takes to churn out a feature film.

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James Garfield Broadnax was executed by lethal injection last night, April 30, at Texas State Penitentiary, Rolling Stone reports. Broadnax had been convicted of double murder in 2009, at the age of 19, and his case had become a cause célèbre in ongoing debates over the use of rap lyrics in court. As recently as March, a number of artists including Travis Scott, Young Thug, and Killer Mike had petitioned the Supreme Court to halt the execution. Broadnax was 37.

Broadnax and his cousin, Demarius Cummings, were arrested in 2008, after an attempted carjacking resulted in the deaths of producers Stephen Swan and Matthew Butler. Broadnax quickly confessed to the murders and even bragged about them on the local news—though he was high on PCP-laced weed at the time.

Broadnax was found guilty by a predominantly white jury, but before he could be sentenced, prosecutors entered into evidence 40 pages of handwritten rap lyrics that had been found in his car. After reviewing the documents, the jury sentenced Broadnax to the death penalty over life without parole.

Last February, Broadnax’s legal team motioned for a “Writ of Certiorari,” which would have mandated the Supreme Court to reconsider the lower court’s decision. The following month, Cummings also came forward to attest that he was the one who had killed Swan and Butler, but Broadnax had taken the fall due to his lighter criminal record. However, the Supreme Court rejected all of Broadnax’s appeals on the grounds that he never recanted his confession.

A supporting brief filed by Killer Mike, Young Thug, and a number of additional artists stated that Broadnax’s lyrics should have been considered irrelevant to to his trial as they were only introduced during sentencing. Scott filed his own separate brief, which deemed the prosecution’s case “a categorical and straightforwardly unconstitutional content-based penalty on rap music as a form of expression.”

In 2022, the New York State Senate passed a bill that limited how prosecutors can use song lyrics and other forms of “creative expression” as evidence in criminal cases. The same year, a similar bill in California became law. A federal bill on the topic, the RAP Act, was reintroduced to Congress in 2023, but has yet to pass.

What Young Thug and Gunna’s Indictment Means for Rap Music on Trial

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The steering wheel on an Inceptio Technology autonomous truck in Jinan, Shandong Province, China, on Thursday, April 18, 2024.

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BEIJING — While AI updates make headlines every few weeks, those advances are not enough to get self-driving vehicles on the road more quickly.

That’s according to Chinese autonomous trucking companies, who say that improvements in large language model, from Anthropic’s Claude to China’s DeepSeek, have little impact on the timeline for vehicle deployment.

“The world’s best linguistics [expert] doesn’t mean he’s a good driver,” Pony.ai CEO James Peng told reporters last week. “AI is a very broad term. They’re completely different things. Absolutely … zero relevance.”

“When we process language, when we play sports, when we drive we all use different skills,” he said.

Autonomous driving uses artificial intelligence to imitate a human driver with a combination of sensors, chips and algorithms. But the real-world training data needed is very different from what powers large language models such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT, requiring what’s called world models.

Inceptio, a self-driving truck startup, is still sticking to its timeline for a mid-2028 commercialization milestone, unaffected by the broad advances in AI, CEO Julian Ma told CNBC.

By the third or fourth quarter of 2028, he expects Inceptio will have racked up 5 billion kilometers (3.1 billion miles) of truck driving data in China — enough to allow fully autonomous heavy-duty trucks to ply public roads.

With 5 billion kilometers in collected driving data, AI can extrapolate that into 50 billion km of experience in a world model — which is then sufficient to allow a heavy-duty truck to drive completely on its own, Ma said. He expects the trucks can then start operating without any humans inside in certain parts of the country.

Achieving that goal in about two years is already quite fast, he said, noting that in order for driverless trucks to become a widespread reality, they will need partnerships with manufacturers and regulatory approval — in addition to the tech.

Autonomous vehicles rely heavily on data about driving on roads. Just like robotaxi companies, self-driving truck operators run manned tests in order to gather training data safely.

Inceptio has by far recorded the most commercial autonomous truck miles in the industry, exceeding U.S. rivals, according to ARK Invest’s Big Ideas 2026 report in January. At the time, the company had driven 250 million miles — exponentially more than fellow Chinese autonomous driving company Pony.ai, which held second place at 4.2 million miles.

U.S.-based rivals Aurora, Kodiak and Gatik rounded out the top five, with a combined 8.9 million miles, according to the report.

Inceptio’s Ma said in late April the company’s trucks had driven 700 million kilometers (434.96 million miles), and aimed for 1 billion kilometers (621.4 million miles) by the end of the year. He said the company can use AI to identify which specific scenarios to focus on for gathering test data.

At the Beijing auto show, Pony.ai also announced an upgrade to its PonyWorld 2.0 AI model to improve its ability to collect specific data and train the model more efficiently. The company, which already operates robotaxis in China and other countries, unveiled a fully driverless light-duty truck that it developed with battery giant CATL.

Regulatory challenges

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While China has 5-year development plans that increasingly emphasize tech goals, Ma said it’s often companies that take the lead in driving innovation.

“We make it happen,” he said, before regulators see the technology in action and are convinced enough to provide policy support.

But it’s clear that there’s a long way to go before you see trucks and cars running around the country without drivers.

“Automobiles are actually the most challenging area for AI, and exceeds the difficulty of embodied AI to some extent, because it involves safety,” Ma said. Embodied AI includes humanoid robots.

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SM Nuvali will be SM Prime’s fifth and largest mall in Laguna and its 91^st mall overall, the company said in a statement on Thursday.

“SM Nuvali marks the first of five flagship malls we plan to open annually from 2026 to 2030,” SM Prime President Jeffrey C. Lim said.

“This reflects our confidence in high-growth regional markets and our commitment to building integrated destinations that support long-term value creation,” he added.

SM Prime said the development is part of its strategy to invest in regional markets, citing demand driven by rising incomes, improved connectivity, and expanding urban centers.

The mall will offer more than 82,000 square meters of gross leasable area and will incorporate sustainability features such as solar panels, water recycling systems, and energy-efficient lighting.

SM Nuvali will also include 24 electric vehicle charging stations, a recycling program, and an e-waste collection facility, the company said.

The project will include open-air promenades, green zones, and lifestyle spaces in line with the Nuvali estate’s eco-community plan.

“We believe SM Nuvali can bring meaningful value to the Nuvali estate,” Mr. Lim said. “Its experiential attractions and tenant mix will help generate economic activity, create jobs and attract more investment into the region.”

The mall will feature a one-hectare indoor garden, playgrounds, a paw park, and nature-inspired areas, along with restaurants and global brands. It will be connected by a bridgeway to the Park Inn by Radisson and SMX Trade Hall, which are being developed by SM Hotels and Conventions Corp.

SM Prime said development of the NV Towers office project is also underway within the estate.

The expansion comes as the company reported a first-quarter net income of P11.66 billion, slightly higher than P11.65 billion a year earlier, supported by a 2% increase in consolidated revenues to P33.3 billion.

Malls remained the largest contributor, accounting for 61% of total revenues at P20.4 billion, up 8% from a year earlier, while rental income rose 8% to P21.6 billion on improved occupancy.

The residential segment generated P8.3 billion, down 14% year on year, while real estate sales fell 16% to P7.8 billion, reflecting slower revenue recognition and cancellations.

Hotel and convention center revenues rose 8% to P2.2 billion, while office revenues increased 10% to P2.5 billion, both on improved occupancy and bookings.

SM Prime said it is tightening capital spending and coordinating with tenants and partners as it responds to economic pressures, including higher inflation and interest rates linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict.

As of March, the company reported total assets of P1.1 trillion. Capital expenditures for the quarter reached P15.5 billion, down 9% from a year earlier.

On Thursday, shares of SM Prime fell 1.96% or P0.38 to close at P19. — J.C.A. Gonzales

In the National Government (NG) disbursement report released on Thursday, spending on infrastructure and other capital outlays fell by 29.2%, or P27.4 billion, to P66.4 billion in February from P93.8 billion in the same month in 2025.

Month on month, infrastructure spending nearly tripled from P22.3 billion in January.

For the first two months of the year, infrastructure spending plunged by 40.1% to P88.7 billion from P148.3 billion in the same period a year ago. This represents just 7% of the program this year.

Under the 2026 Budget of Expenditures and Sources of Financing, the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) projected spending on infrastructure and other capital outlays to reach P1.27 trillion in 2026. However, this excludes infrastructure subsidies and equities to government-owned and -controlled corporations as well as infrastructure transfers to local government units.

The DBM attributed the decline in the January-to-February period to delays in billing claims. It noted that most of the projects funded under last year’s budget are still ongoing, while the implementation of this year’s budget continues.

“It can also be noted that infrastructure disbursements during the first quarter of 2025 were relatively higher due to the frontloading of some expenditures and settlements of accounts payable ahead of the election ban during the time,” it added.

In the first two months, overall infrastructure disbursements dipped by 54.4% to P128.6 billion from P182.9 billion a year ago.

The DBCC earlier projected infrastructure disbursements to reach P1.558 trillion in 2026 or 5.1% of gross domestic product.

The DBM said it expects infrastructure disbursements to remain soft in the first half of the year, while spending could be driven by continuous implementation of a strict review and validation process for payment claims.

It said that disbursements will remain muted as “the base effects of large settlement of accounts payables in the first quarter last year persist, while the completion of projects carried over from the previous year is ongoing.”

“Nonetheless, the quality of infrastructure spending may benefit from the continuous implementation of a strict review and validation process for payment claims,” it added.

Last year, the country was rocked by a corruption scandal tied to flood control projects that implicated government officials, lawmakers, and contractors. This prompted the government to tighten monitoring of project implementation and completion status, but this caused delays.

As of end-February, the DBM said that the program balance amounted to P2.48 trillion or 36.5% of the total P6.79-trillion obligation program for the year.

The remaining balances consist largely of interest payments (P950 billion), agency-specific budgets (P915.2 billion), and special purpose funds (P577.5 billion).

“The bulk of the unreleased allotments of agency-specific budgets pertain to the infrastructure projects of the Department of Public Works and Highways, which shall be released through the issuance of a Special Allotment Release Order,” it added.

Michael L. Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., said the decline in infrastructure spending reflects the government’s cautious spending “to at least prevent corruption.”

In the coming months, he expects the government to catch up on spending amid reforms in governance standards “that would help improve investor confidence.”

However, Mr. Ricafort warned that higher prices and inflation could push up the cost of various government projects, which “could be a drag, widen the budget deficit and increase the debt stock.” — Justine Irish D. Tabile

THE PHILIPPINES’ trade deficit in goods widened slightly in March as a record-high import bill driven by rising global energy prices offset the fastest export growth since late last year, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Thursday.

Preliminary data from the PSA showed the country’s trade-in-goods balance — the difference between exports and imports — stood at a deficit of $4.512 billion in March, widening by 0.1% from the $4.509-billion deficit in March last year.

Month on month, the trade gap ballooned from the revised $4.015 billion in February.

March saw the widest trade deficit in six months or since the $4.673-billion gap in September 2025.

Merchandise imports climbed by 12.3% year on year in March, slowing from the 17.9% expansion a year ago and the 16.6% growth in February. The import bill reached its highest since 1991 to $12.68 billion in March.

On the other hand, total outbound sales of Philippine-made goods increased by 20.4% year on year in March to $8.17 billion, faster than the 9% expansion in March 2025 and 8.9% gain in February.

PSA said the value of export sales in March was the highest recorded since the series began in 1991.

March also saw the fastest export growth in three months or since the 23.9% growth in December 2025.

“The slight widening of the trade-in-goods deficit in March was largely import-driven rather than a sign of export weakness,” Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, said in a Viber message.

Mr. Asuncion said the growth in imports was driven by stronger demand for global electronics, elevated fuel and shipping costs, and normalized inventories as global financial conditions and supply chains improved.

For the first quarter, the trade-in-goods deficit widened to $12.81 billion from the $12.46-billion gap in the January-March period last year.

Exports expanded by 12.7% to $22.7 billion in the first three months of 2026, while imports rose by 8.9% to $35.5 billion.

George T. Barcelon, chairman of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said the trade deficit likely reflected firms replenishing inventories after typically running stocks low in the previous quarter.

“Because normally they’re low in inventory for December and for the last quarter, they’ll bring it up in the first quarter,” Mr. Barcelon said in a phone interview.

The Development Budget Coordination Committee projects both imports and exports to grow by 2% this year.

RENEWED DEMAND FOR IMPORTS
PSA data showed imports of raw materials and intermediate goods in March grew by 11.7% to $4.6 billion. These accounted for 36.3% of the total March import bill.

During the month, imports of capital goods rose by 16.6% to $3.83 billion.

“(The) broad uptrend (in imports of capital goods) remains intact, likely reflecting the re-awakening of public-sector capex from the late-2025 lull caused by the anti-corruption drive,” Miguel Chanco, chief emerging Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a research note.

“The total import print for March was salvaged unsurprisingly by helpful commodity price effects,” he added.

Imports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials jumped by 35.1% year on year to $2 billion.

Chinabank Research said in a note that purchases of mineral fuels surged, “largely due to price effects amid soaring global oil prices despite a drop in import volume.”

The imports of consumer goods fell by 7.6% to $2.19 billion in March, which Chinabank said is a sign of weakening consumer sentiment as high oil prices hit households’ budgets.

China was the top source of imported goods with a 27.6% share worth $3.5 billion. South Korea followed with an 11.3% share ($1.43 billion), Japan with 8.4% ($1.07 billion), Indonesia with 7.1% ($900.73 million), and the United States with 6.3% ($804.23 million).

AI-RELATED DEMAND FOR CHIPS
Electronic products, which cornered more than 70% of manufactured goods and more than half of March’s total exports, expanded by 33% year on year to $4.82 billion.

Semiconductors, which accounted for the bulk of electronic products and more than 40% of total exports, climbed by 38.2% to $3.7 billion in March.

“March’s export performance demonstrates that the government’s drive towards higher value products in high-performing industries like electronics while expanding market opportunities with targeted and strategic trade and investment promotion initiatives are helping exporters adapt to evolving global conditions and translating to export gains,” Trade and Industry Secretary Ma. Cristina A. Roque said in a statement.

For his part, Mr. Asuncion said the export performance was bolstered by the “gradual upturn in global demand for semiconductors and electronic components, particularly from advanced economies and key Asian markets.”

Chinabank Research noted that strong artificial intelligence (AI)-related demand could further support the local chip industry, but higher delivery costs have already pushed some local exporters to cancel some orders.

Chinabank Research also noted that exports of mineral products surged by 40.2%, led by gold and nickel. “In contrast, agricultural exports declined due to weaker coconut shipments. Looking ahead, limited fertilizer supply and the possible emergence of El Niño could weigh on agricultural output and export performance,” it said.

The United States was the main destination of locally made goods in March as exports to the country reached $1.4 billion, accounting for 17.1% of all outbound goods.

It was followed by Hong Kong with $1.3 billion (15.9% share), Japan with $962.41 million (11.8% share), China with $956.77 million (11.7% share), and Taiwan with $393.14 million (4.8% share).

DEFICIT TO WIDEN FURTHER
Meanwhile, Mr. Asuncion said the March trade figures will be broadly supportive of first-quarter economic growth.

“While net exports will likely remain a drag on headline GDP (gross domestic product) due to the trade deficit, the strong growth in exports points to a solid contribution from manufacturing and external demand,” he said.

He added that higher imports of capital goods and inputs suggest “healthy investment and production activity.”

The PSA will release the first-quarter 2026 GDP data on Thursday, May 7.

However, the outlook remains clouded by geopolitical risks.

“We’re not in a recession, but we could gradually be heading there if global geopolitical tensions remain unresolved,” Mr. Barcelon said.

Crude oil prices remain elevated amid concerns over a prolonged Middle East conflict.

“With no clear resolution to the Middle East conflict in sight, rising crude oil prices are likely to continue pushing up the country’s import bill in the near term, widening the trade deficit. This, however, reflects mainly price effects, as import volumes will continue to decline,” Chinabank Research said.

Chinabank Research said a ballooning trade gap could also put additional depreciation pressure on the peso.

“The trade deficit is likely to persist in the near term, reflecting the country’s import-intensive growth structure. From a macro perspective, this is manageable as long as the deficit is driven by productive investments and export-related inputs, which appears to be the case so far,” Mr. Asuncion said.

THE PHILIPPINES’ agricultural output likely contracted in the first quarter of 2026, weighed down by a drop in major crops such as rice, and continued weakness in fisheries and livestock subsectors, analysts said.

Former Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar told BusinessWorld that he expects farm sector output to shrink by about 3% in the January-to-March period. If this projection is realized, it will be a reversal from the 2% growth recorded in the same period last year.

“For the first quarter of 2026, there will be a decline of about 3% compared to the first quarter of 2025. Livestock and fisheries are always declining,” Mr. Dar said in a Viber message.

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) is set to release the first-quarter agriculture output data on May 6, a day ahead of the gross domestic product (GDP) data. Agriculture contributes about a tenth to the Philippines’ GDP and roughly a quarter of total employment.

Raul Q. Montemayor, national manager of the Federation of Free Farmers, told BusinessWorld that the projected decline in agricultural output was largely driven by lower rice output, which accounts for roughly 30% to 40% of the total crop production by value.

In a report on Thursday, the PSA said palay (unmilled rice) production fell by 6.26% to a six-year low of 4.4 million metric tons (MT) in the first quarter from 4.7 million MT a year earlier.

Mr. Montemayor said weak farmgate prices in the latter half of 2025 have dampened farmers’ incentive to plant, contributing to the lower harvest.

“The palay harvested in the first quarter of 2026 was planted in the last quarter of 2025, during which time palay prices were severely depressed, even with the import ban,” he said.

Danilo V. Fausto, president of the Philippine Chamber of Agriculture and Food, Inc., said the country’s farm output was also affected by damage to a major irrigation system in Nueva Ecija late last year.

He said the disruption affected about 30,000 to 40,000 hectares of farmland in the country’s top rice-producing province.

“While the National Irrigation Administration tried to catch up on the repair, recovery of the planted areas affected by a lack of irrigation will be delayed, pushing the harvesting of palay to the second quarter,” he earlier told BusinessWorld.

Meanwhile, Mr. Dar also cited delayed distribution of seeds and fertilizers, uneven government support across subsectors, and weak mobilization of extension services as additional factors that may have dampened first-quarter output.

HOG SECTOR RECOVERY
Meanwhile, Alfred Ng, vice chairman of the National Federation of Hog Raisers, said that despite weak livestock performance in the first quarter, the hog industry may see improvements in the coming quarters.

Production continues to be affected by the African Swine Fever, he said, but government support is expected to aid recovery.

“Since the Department of Agriculture (DA) has given a budget of P1.6 billion for repopulation this year, hog production will certainly be expected to go up soon,” Mr. Ng told BusinessWorld via Viber.

He said the budget could fund the procurement of 40,000 gilts, potentially adding 29 million kilos of pork annually.

Mr. Ng also cited Republic Act No. 12308, or the Animal Industry Development and Competitiveness Act, enacted last year, as a key measure supporting the sector’s rebound.

Hog production accounts for about 80% of total livestock output by value. In 2025, hog production was estimated at P246.42 billion, the lowest level since the P189.57 billion recorded in 2001, based on PSA data.

FULL-YEAR CONTRACTION
Analysts warned that the agriculture sector may face continued challenges for the rest of the year, raising the risk of a full-year contraction.

“[There are] tremendous headwinds we will be facing in the next three quarters of this year, such as high fertilizer prices, fuel and transport costs, and a possible severe El Niño,” Former Agriculture Undersecretary Fermin D. Adriano told BusinessWorld via Viber.

Agriculture output had expanded by 2.6% in 2025, the fastest pace in eight years, mainly due to gains in crop output and a strong poultry performance.

The DA earlier said palay output could dip to about 18.6 million MT to 18.8 million MT if the prices of fuel and key agricultural inputs, particularly fertilizer, remain elevated through the next cropping season.

If production falls to 18.6 million MT, this would be the lowest palay output since the 17.62 million MT recorded in 2016.

The DA said it is also closely monitoring the potential impact of the developing El Niño, which could further reduce yields in the coming months.

In 2024, farm output contracted by 2.1% when the agriculture sector was affected by drought and dry spells caused by the El Niño which began in June 2023.

In a statement on Wednesday, the agency added that it is coordinating with regional offices and other relevant agencies to assess vulnerabilities and deploy early interventions ahead of the developing El Niño.

The DA said measures include prepositioning inputs such as drought-tolerant seed and assessing irrigation systems in major service areas to anticipate potential water shortages and adjust allocation schedules.

Agriculture Assistant Secretary Arnel V. de Mesa told reporters on April 21 that palay output losses for the second cropping season could reach 20% in a best-case scenario and up to 50% in a worst-case scenario.

To mitigate risks, the DA said it is exploring the use of biofertilizers as a cost-effective alternative to fuel-based inputs.

Mr. de Mesa said P500 million of the DA’s P1-billion Quick Response Fund, activated following the declaration of the state of national energy emergency, will be used to procure biofertilizers ahead of the next cropping season.

In its month-ahead inflation forecast, the BSP said inflation may have further quickened to between 5.6% and 6.4% in April from the 1.4% print a year ago and 4.1% in March.

At the upper end of the forecast, inflation may have surged to its fastest pace in three years or since the 6.6% in April 2023.

At the bottom end, inflation would still be the fastest print in over two years or since the 6.1% clip in September 2023.

If the forecast is realized, April would mark the second month in a row that annual inflation settled above the 2%-4% range.

April inflation is scheduled to be released on May 5.

“Inflation risks have intensified amid upward price pressures from significantly higher domestic petroleum prices, rising prices of key food items such as rice, fish, and meat, increased electricity charges, and the peso depreciation,” the central bank said in a statement.

Fuel prices remained elevated in April as the conflict in the Middle East continued. The Philippines is a net oil importer, with nearly all of its oil supply coming from the Middle East.

Year to date, net price increases reached P44.23 per liter for gasoline, P48.96 for diesel, and P57.99 for kerosene.

Power rates have also gone up. Manila Electric Co. raised rates by P0.5335 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), bringing the overall rate to P14.3496 per kWh for April, citing higher generation costs linked to the peso depreciation.

The peso closed at P61.485 against the dollar on April 30, weakening by 73.7 centavos from its P60.748 close on March 31. It hit a record low of P61.567 on April 29.

At the same time, rice prices continued to climb in April, with the average cost of regular milled rice rising by 15.9% to P51.53 in the April 15 to 17 period from P44.44 a year earlier.

The price of well-milled rice jumped by 15.3% year on year to P58.88 a kilo, while the price of special rice climbed by an annual 9.8% to P66.23 per kilo.

“The anticipated decline in vegetable and fruit prices may help temper inflation, but sources of upside price pressures continue to warrant close monitoring,” the BSP said.

The central bank said last week that it now expects inflation to average 6.3% this year and 4.3% next year, both above its tolerance band.

The BSP said it will stay vigilant and continue to monitor recent developments in the Middle East for their impact on inflation and economic activity.

Last week, the central bank hiked its policy rate for the first time in over two years, bringing the benchmark to 4.5%.

Meanwhile, ING Economics said on Thursday that it expects inflation in the Philippines to rise above 5% in April.

“This will be driven by the continued pass-through of higher global oil prices into domestic prices and emerging second-round effects,” it said. “Higher rice prices are also likely to contribute to the uptick in food inflation.”

In an April 30 note, Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. (Metrobank) said that it expects headline inflation at 5.6% in April, with oil as the main driver.

“With how critical oil and fuel are to food production, oil inflation likely impacted food prices as well… Moreover, Metrobank expects meat to enter positive inflation in April after two months of year-on-year price declines, as high oil prices begin to outweigh supply for meat products,” it added. — Justine Irish D. Tabile

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A cryptocurrency marketed as a green alternative to bitcoin is actually consuming 18 times more energy than its makers originally claimed. Even management at the Chia Network admits the figures are “not wildly off”.

Bitcoin requires miners to do vast amounts of otherwise useless calculations to maintain the network, a system known as proof of work. Analysis suggests that bitcoin currently consumes around 157 terrawatt hours per year – about as much as the entire country of Poland. But Chia instead uses a proof-of-space-and-time approach that ditches these calculations and relies on empty hard disk space. The more space a miner devotes to the task and the longer they leave it, the higher their probability of receiving new coins.

Using Chia involves two main steps: plotting and farming. Plotting is a memory- and processor-intensive task that creates the data to be stored, while farming involves simply storing that data and occasionally proving to the network that it still exists. Speedy solid-state drives (SSDs) are often used for plotting, while cheaper and slower hard disks are used for farming.

Soraya Djerrab at the Higher School of Computer Science and Digital Technologies in Algeria and her colleagues investigated Chia and found that plotting wears out significant numbers of SSDs, and that the embodied carbon of those devices would drive up the network’s carbon emissions. The researchers also used hardware fitted with accurate wattmeters and ran various Chia tasks to see how much power devices consumed at all stages of the process, and worked that into their calculations.

They found that Chia’s annual carbon footprint likely lies between 0.584 and 1.402 million tonnes per year. Even the average of those bounds would mean that Chia’s emissions were about 18 times the claimed 50,000 tonnes – and two orders of magnitude larger than mainstream blockchains such as Ethereum.

“Mainly it’s from embodied emissions,” says Djerrab. “To use Chia, people have to buy hardware. When you buy them, energy is used to create them. Chia didn’t include this when they calculated the energy used.”

The researchers estimate that going through the process to create a plot just 160 times would destroy a brand-new SSD, and that attempts by Chia to lower the burden on hard disks with other ways to create plots require more RAM and GPUs, which bring their own carbon emissions. As co-author Clémentine Gritti at the Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon puts it: “it’s still better than bitcoin, but it doesn’t save the planet”.

Gene Hoffman, the CEO of Chia Network, told New Scientist that the cryptocurrency makes extensive use of hard disks from data centres that would otherwise be thrown away at the end of their life, at least for the farming stage, and that the figures in the paper are an overestimate.

“I don’t think [they’re] wildly off,” says Hoffman. “I think [they’re] off a bit. We’re being charged with the full carbon footprint of building drives that ran for four years in an enterprise data centre and then, otherwise, would have landfilled,” he says. “It [Chia farming] really created a market for something that was otherwise a cast-off. “

In any case, Hoffman claims that wide changes to the Chia network – due for launch in two months and called Proof of Space 2.0 – will dramatically cut emissions. “We feel like we’re doing a pretty good job and we think that Proof of Space 2.0 is going to be even better.”

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Amazon on Wednesday posted better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the first quarter, and reported cloud sales that topped analysts’ expectations.

The stock was up more than 4%, after bouncing around in extended trading.

Here’s how the company did, compared with estimates from analysts polled by LSEG:

• Earnings per share: $2.78 vs. $1.64
• Revenue: $181.52 billion vs. $177.30 billion

Wall Street was also looking at other key revenue numbers:

• Amazon Web Services: $37.59 billion vs. $36.64 billion, according to StreetAccount
• Advertising: $17.24 billion vs. $16.87 billion, according to StreetAccount

Revenue in Amazon’s cloud segment increased 28% year over year to $37.59 billion, marking its fastest growth in more than three years. Wall Street had expected AWS sales to grow 26%.

Amazon and other big tech companies have been trying to justify their hefty artificial intelligence spending, which could approach $700 billion in 2026. Amazon in February projected its capital expenditures will reach $200 billion in 2026, a sharp increase from last year.

The company recently announced a host of AI-related deals with OpenAI, Anthropic and Meta, which could help ease investor concerns about when its spending will deliver returns, but also suggest Amazon will need to build out even more data centers and infrastructure to meet surging demand.

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy has also looked to highlight the company’s homegrown chips business as a beneficiary of the AI boom, and the company called out the segment near the top of its earnings release.

“We’re in the middle of some of the biggest inflections of our lifetime, we’re well positioned to lead, and I’m very optimistic about what’s ahead for our customers and Amazon,” Jassy said in a statement.

Amazon said property and equipment expenses in the first quarter reached $44.2 billion, which was above Wall Street’s projected $43.6 billion, according to FactSet. Meanwhile, its free cash flow for the past twelve months fell to $1.2 billion, a 95% decrease year over year, primarily because of its AI investments, the company said.

The company’s capex spending is also being pushed higher because of its investments in its nascent internet-from-space service, called Leo. Amazon is aiming to begin commercial service in the third quarter of this year, Chief Financial Officer Brian Olsavsky said on a call with investors.

Amazon needs to make enough satellites and book more rocket launches to build out its constellation, which will eventually total roughly 7,700 satellites. About 270 satellites are in service currently.

Earlier this month, Amazon announced it plans to purchase Globalstar in a deal valued at roughly $11.57 billion, the second-largest acquisition in its history.

“They have unusual and scarce global spectrum that’s required to provide direct to device,” Jassy said on the conference call, referring to Globalstar. “We also really like the satellite know-how that we’ll get as part of that merger.”

The deal also “afforded us the opportunity to build a deep relationship with Apple,” Jassy said. As part of the deal, Apple, which owns a 20% stake in Globalstar, will use Amazon’s satellite connectivity for some products.

For the current quarter, Amazon said it expects sales to come in between $194 billion and $199 billion. Analysts polled by LSEG were expecting $188.9 billion.

The company said second-quarter operating income is expected to be between $20 billion and $24 billion. Analysts were projecting $22.65 billion, according to StreetAccount.

Revenue in its online stores segment, which still accounts for the largest share of Amazon’s total sales, grew 12% in the first quarter to $64.3 billion, higher than analysts’ estimated $62.7 billion.

Alongside its earnings release, the company announced this year’s Prime Day discount bonanza will be held in June, a month earlier than its typical time frame.

Advertising revenue jumped 24% year over year to $17.24 billion, above Wall Street’s expectations for growth of 21.2%. The unit is one of the company’s fastest growing and more profitable businesses, with the lion’s share of revenue coming from sponsored products listings on its e-commerce site.

Amazon’s head count fell by 1,000 employees since the fourth quarter. It finished the first quarter with 1.57 million employees globally, which was roughly flat from last year.

The company announced at the beginning of the first quarter that it would lay off 16,000 corporate employees, after cutting 14,000 staffers in October.

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In a statement on Wednesday, the Sy-led conglomerate said consolidated revenues rose by 5% to P159.4 billion from P152 billion in the same period last year.

Banking remained the largest earnings contributor, accounting for 49% of total net income, followed by property at 28%, retail at 15%, and portfolio investments at 8%.

SMIC said its retail segment posted strong results, with SM Retail reporting a 13% increase in net income to P4.1 billion, supported by higher demand in non-food categories such as department stores during the graduation season.

Food and specialty retail segments also contributed steady results, the company said.

Outside its core businesses, SMIC said portfolio investments posted gains, with Atlas Consolidated Mining & Development Corp. benefiting from higher copper prices, while 2GO Group, Inc. reported growth in logistics and travel services.

Goldilocks Bakeshop also saw increased demand during the early part of the graduation season, according to SMIC.

The company said total assets stood at P1.8 trillion as of the end of the quarter. Its capital structure consisted of 30% net debt and 70% equity.

SMIC also said it is managing its position amid geopolitical pressures by focusing on financial discipline, diversification, and maintaining access to capital.

“The first quarter continued to deliver good results for us, especially in retail. We are aware of external challenges and will endeavor to maintain our performance by being disciplined on costs and focused on meeting consumer needs even when their spending is constrained,” SMIC President and Chief Executive Officer Frederic C. DyBuncio said.

“Volatility is now a feature of the operating environment. This means staying liquid, facing investments carefully, and keeping enough flexibility to act when opportunities arise,” SMIC Chairman Amando M. Tetangco, Jr. said during the company’s annual stockholders’ meeting.

“In practical terms, it allows us to invest when conditions are weak, not just when they are favorable,” he added.

Mr. Tetangco said SMIC’s diversification across retail, property, banking, and other investments helps cushion the impact of shocks affecting individual segments.

“Resilience is built ahead of time, not in the middle of early disruption,” he said.

Shares in SMIC were unchanged at P620 apiece on Wednesday. — Alexandria Grace C. Magno

The central bank said investment tends to weaken when the dollar appreciates sharply while also becoming more volatile, since these conditions heighten uncertainty and strain firms with significant foreign exchange exposure.

The study analyzed how global shocks affect investment using economic data — like the US dollar and volatility measures — and information from news reports on overall and firm-level investments over two periods.

“At the aggregate level, investment declines in response to US dollar volatility, particularly when the dollar is strengthening, as well as to heightened uncertainty in the US economy and global trade,” BSP researchers Hazel C. Parcon-Santos, Cristeta B. Bagsic, Carl Francis C. Maliwat, Jose Adlai M. Tancangco and Alyssa Cyrielle B. Villanueva said in the report.

Findings showed that episodes marked by both a stronger and more volatile dollar consistently coincide with lower overall investment in the Philippines.

The BSP noted that exchange rate volatility increases uncertainty, discouraging both investors and lenders, which in turn suppresses capital formation.

The study found that financial data, like exchange rates and volatility, has a bigger effect on investment decisions than news-based or written signals, both in the short and long terms.

“The joint combination of stronger and more volatile value of the dollar reduces investments greater than any text-based measure,” the central bank said.

On the policy side, the BSP noted that government spending could help offset the negative effects of global shocks. Increased public expenditure was found to have a positive and statistically significant effect on investments because it signals potential opportunities and stability to both domestic and foreign investors.

However, the study also found that rising inflation and higher lending rates — often indirect consequences of global shocks — weigh on investment activity. Elevated borrowing costs and higher prices reduce companies’ capacity and willingness to invest over both short and long horizons.

At the company level, the BSP found that global shocks similarly dampen capital expenditure growth across sectors.

Nonfinancial firms, particularly those in manufacturing, were shown to be highly sensitive to movements in the dollar. This reflects their reliance on imported inputs, making them more exposed to fluctuations in exchange rates.

Among different company types, goods exporters were found to be the most affected by volatility, despite benefiting from a stronger dollar in terms of peso-denominated revenue.

The BSP said many exporters carry significant foreign-denominated debt, which becomes more expensive as the dollar strengthens.

“As the US dollar strengthens, the peso value of these obligations also increases,” the BSP said, noting that the negative financial effects outweigh the benefits from improved export earnings.

Goods importers also face heightened risks since exchange rate volatility increases the cost uncertainty of imported inputs, further compounded by foreign currency liabilities.

In contrast, service exporters were identified as the most resilient group. The BSP attributed this to their lower reliance on imported goods and limited exposure to foreign-denominated debt, insulating them from exchange rate swings.

The study found that companies with high foreign currency debt remain vulnerable even if they do not rely heavily on imports. This shows the importance of managing foreign exchange exposure, as fluctuations in the dollar can significantly affect balance sheets.

Crucially, the BSP found that dollar appreciation alone does not necessarily dampen investment. Instead, the negative effects arise when appreciation is accompanied by heightened volatility.

“The results show that a US dollar appreciation, by itself, does not negatively affect firms’ capital expenditure (capex) growth,” it said. “Only when the US dollar appreciation is accompanied by volatility does it adversely affect firms’ capex growth.” — AMCS

THE PESO fell to a fresh record against the dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by broad dollar strength and rising global oil prices amid expectations of prolonged supply disruptions in the Middle East and a hawkish outlook for US monetary policy.

It closed at P61.567 a dollar, weakening by 26.7 centavos from its previous record finish of P60.30 on Tuesday, according to Bankers Association of the Philippines data posted on its website. Year to date, the peso has depreciated by P2.777 or 4.51% from its P58.79 close at end-2025.

The peso opened the session slightly stronger at P61.20 but quickly lost ground, touching an intraday low of P61.67 before settling near that level at the close. Total dollar trading declined to $1.61 billion from $1.75 billion in the previous session.

Market participants attributed the peso’s weakness to sustained demand for the dollar, driven largely by rising oil prices and geopolitical risks.

A trader said the currency continued to slide as global crude prices climbed on expectations of an extended blockade affecting Iranian oil exports, which could tighten supply in the global market.

Oil prices rose further on Wednesday, extending a multi-day rally. Brent crude futures climbed above $112 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude breached the $100 level.

The continued gains reflect concerns that supply disruptions in the Middle East could persist, especially with reports that the US might prolong its blockade targeting Iranian ports.

Michael L. Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., said the war could constrain global oil supply and push fuel costs higher, adding pressure on the peso.

Higher oil prices typically widen the Philippines’ trade deficit since the country is heavily dependent on imported fuel.

He added that dollar demand was also boosted by hedging activity after the peso breached the P61-a-dollar level.

“The breach above P61 since Tuesday was largely triggered by some hedging activities on the country’s fuel imports and the importation of other goods in view of the state of national energy emergency that came into effect on March 24,” Mr. Ricafort said via Viber.

Another trader said expectations of prolonged elevated interest rates in the US also supported the dollar.

Market sentiment has shifted toward a later timeline for policy easing, with some investors now expecting the US Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts until much later than previously anticipated.

The dollar edged higher against major currencies as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later in the day. While the central bank was widely expected to keep rates unchanged, markets were closely watching for signals on the future policy path and the economic impact of the US-Israel war on Iran.

The euro and British pound both slipped slightly against the dollar, reflecting the greenback’s broad-based strength. Analysts said the dollar’s resilience underscores its status as a safe-haven asset during periods of global uncertainty.

CORRECTIVE PULLBACK
A third trader noted that the peso was also pressured by concerns over domestic inflation and economic growth.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) last week raised its inflation forecasts, projecting it to average 6.3% this year and 4.3% in 2027 — both above its 2%-4% target.

These upward revisions come amid rising global commodity prices, particularly oil, which could feed into higher transport and production costs.

Inflation is also expected to remain above 5% for the rest of the year, adding to concerns about purchasing power and economic stability.

The BSP last week raised its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%, its first rate hike since October 2023 and signaling a shift away from its previous easing cycle.

Central bank officials have said further tightening might be needed to contain inflationary pressures.

Traders said the peso’s movement would continue to depend on global developments, particularly oil prices and US monetary policy signals.

Some expect a corrective pullback if the currency approaches the P61.80 level, although risks remain tilted to further weakness.

For the near term, analysts expect the peso to trade at P61.40 to P61.70, with volatility likely to persist amid the war and shifting market expectations.

THE UNITED Arab Emirates’ (UAE) exit from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) could benefit oil-importing countries like the Philippines if it leads to higher output and softer prices, analysts said.

Jose M. Layug, a former Energy undersecretary, said the impact would depend on how the UAE adjusts its production outside the group’s quota system.

“If it will produce more supply without following the output limits of OPEC production and offer reduced prices to capture a bigger chunk of the market, then it may be good for the Philippines,” he said in a Viber message.

The UAE on Tuesday said it would leave OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance effective May 1, removing one of the group’s biggest producers from coordinated output limits.

Analysts said the move could have mixed effects. Leo P. Bellas, president of Jetti Petroleum, Inc., said the exit could push prices higher in the short term as it removes supply from OPEC’s coordinated pool.

“The UAE’s departure… removed the organization’s third-largest producer from the quota framework,” he said in a Viber message, adding that it comes at a time when global spare capacity remains tight following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

However, the shift could eventually be bearish for prices if the UAE increases production independently, Mr. Bellas said.

“For now, worries about supply constraints… are keeping prices elevated and outweigh concerns on the bearish effects of the UAE’s departure,” he added.

OPEC and its allies will lose some of their power over the oil market when the UAE leaves the group after nearly 60 years as a member, but the rest of the producer alliance is likely to stick together and continue to coordinate on oil supply policy, OPEC+ delegates and analysts said.

That will free Abu Dhabi from the oil production targets imposed by OPEC and its allies to balance supply and demand.

Brigitte Carmel Lim, senior vice-president and chief operating officer at Cebu-based Top Line Business Development Corp., said the development might add volatility rather than immediately affect supply.

“The main question is whether they will increase output independently, which could soften prices, but that’s still uncertain,” she said via Viber.

Global oil prices have surged amid the US-Israel war on Iran, which has disrupted supply flows and heightened inflation risks.

Local pump prices remain tied to global benchmarks. Diesel and kerosene have posted recent rollbacks, while gasoline prices rose slightly this week, reflecting mixed market movements.

The UAE’s exit came as a shock, said five OPEC+ sources who asked not to be named because they are not allowed to speak to the press.

The exit would complicate OPEC+’s efforts to balance the market through adjustments to supply because the group would have control over less of global production, four of the five sources said.

The UAE will become the biggest oil producer to depart OPEC, a heavy blow to the organization and its de facto leader Saudi Arabia. Abu Dhabi pumped about 3.4 million barrels per day (bpd) or about 3% of the world’s crude supply before the US-Israeli war on Iran forced it and other Middle East Gulf producers to curb shipments and shut down some production.

OPEC and the Saudi government communication office did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

Once outside OPEC, the UAE will join the ranks of independent oil producers that pump at will, such as the US and Brazil. For now, there is not much the UAE can do to increase production or exports due to the effective closure of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. If and when shipping recovers to prewar levels, the UAE could increase output to the country’s capacity of 5 million bpd of crude oil and liquids.

There has been tension between the UAE and Saudi Arabia over the Emiratis’ production quota, which stands at 3.5 million bpd. The UAE has asked for a bigger quota to reflect the fact that it had expanded capacity as part of a $150-billion investment program.

“For years, Abu Dhabi has been looking to monetize its investment in expanding capacity,” said Helima Croft from RBC Capital Markets. The US-Israeli war on Iran would, however, slow those plans down after drones and rockets damaged the UAE’s production facilities, she said.

The war has resulted in the biggest-ever global energy supply disruption in terms of outright daily oil production, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The war has also exposed discord among Gulf nations, including between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Rumors of the UAE’s exit from OPEC+ have circulated for years amid worsening relations with Riyadh over conflicts in Sudan, Somalia and Yemen. The UAE has also grown increasingly close to the US and Israel.

IRAQ STAYS IN
The UAE is the fourth producer to quit OPEC+ in recent years, and by far the biggest. Angola quit the bloc in 2024, citing disagreements over production levels. Ecuador quit OPEC in 2020 and Qatar in 2019.

Iraq, the third-largest producer in OPEC+ after Saudi Arabia and Russia, has no plan to leave OPEC+ as it wants stable and acceptable oil prices, two Iraqi oil officials said.

OPEC+ will not collapse as Saudi Arabia will still want to manage the market with the help of the group, said Gary Ross, a veteran OPEC watcher and CEO at Black Gold Investors.

“At the end of the day, Saudi Arabia was essentially OPEC — the only country with spare capacity,” he said. Saudi Arabia can produce 12.5 million bpd but has in recent years kept production under 10 million bpd.

OPEC+ membership gives countries more diplomatic and international weight — one of the reasons cited by analysts behind Iran’s decision to stay in OPEC even at the peak of its fight with Gulf countries.

US President Donald J. Trump has accused OPEC of “ripping off the rest of the world” by inflating oil prices. He has said the US might reconsider military support to the Gulf because of OPEC oil policies.

It was, however, Mr. Trump who helped convince OPEC+ to cut output in 2020 during the COVID pandemic as oil prices slumped and US producers suffered.

“The UAE withdrawal marks a significant shift for OPEC… the longer-term implication is a structurally weaker OPEC,” said Jorge Leon, a former OPEC official who now works at Rystad Energy.

OPEC+ members will be more focused on rebuilding facilities hit by the war rather than on embarking on production cuts in the near future, Ms. Croft said. Hence, the broader OPEC+ breakup is not on the cards for now, she added.

DECLINING POWER
OPEC’s sway over the market has been declining for decades.

Formed in 1960, OPEC once controlled over 50% of global output. As rivals’ production grew, the group’s share declined to about 30% of the world’s total oil and oil liquids output of 105 million bpd last year.

The US, which used to rely on imports from OPEC members, has become its biggest rival over the past 15 years. The US has raised production to as much as 20% of the world’s total on the back of its shale oil boom.

The US production spike prompted OPEC to team up in 2016 with several non-OPEC producers to form OPEC+, a group led by Russia — previously one of Saudi Arabia’s top rivals in the oil industry.

The alliance gave the group control over about 50% of the world’s total oil production in 2025, according to the IEA. The loss of the UAE means it will decline to about 45%. — with Reuters

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY likely slowed in the first quarter as the prolonged Middle East war weighed on activity, with growth expected to fall below recent quarters and miss the government’s full-year target, the Economy chief said.

Economy, Planning, and Development Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said the economy is unlikely to meet the 5% to 6% growth goal this year due to external shocks and lingering domestic issues.

“It would be, given this unforeseen development,” he told reporters on Wednesday, referring to the US-Israel war on Iran. “And we’re trying to recover from the infrastructure issue last year, and then we’re hit again by even more serious problems.”

“It’s understandable that you can’t expect it to be better than what you had in previous quarters, given these shocks,” he added.

The economy grew 4.4% in 2025 — the slowest in five years — weighed down by weaker investment sentiment after a corruption scandal tied to flood control projects. The controversy implicated government officials, lawmakers and contractors, dampening business confidence.

Mr. Balisacan said global conditions have also worsened, citing downgraded growth forecasts from multilateral institutions.

“The global picture shows that growth expectations have been reduced,” he said, citing forecasts by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The World Bank and IMF trimmed their 2026 growth forecasts for the Philippines to 3.7% and 4.1%, respectively.

The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) is expected to review its macroeconomic targets after the release of first-quarter data scheduled for May 7.

“Our practice is to do those reviews as soon as we have the economic performance report… maybe a week or two after that,” Mr. Balisacan said.

The DBCC had lowered its growth targets in December to reflect the impact of the infrastructure controversy, setting a 5% to 6% goal for 2026 from 6% to 7%.

Rising oil prices due to the Middle East war have added pressure on the economy. The Philippines, which relies heavily on imported fuel, has been hit by higher energy costs and tighter supply conditions.

The government declared a one-year state of national energy emergency and suspended excise taxes on kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas to cushion the impact on consumers.

“Most of our fuel needs… come from the Middle East, directly or indirectly,” Mr. Balisacan said. “So, we were affected by the shocks.”

Authorities have rolled out targeted subsidies and support measures to mitigate the impact on vulnerable sectors.

“So, what we have been doing… is to ensure that the economy is not severely slowed down by this shock,” he said, adding that protecting low-income households remains a priority.

Despite near-term challenges, Mr. Balisacan expressed confidence in a recovery once external pressures ease.

“But the most important thing is that we will be able to recover as soon as this shock is over,” he said.

The Philippines remains reliant on fossil fuels, with renewable energy accounting for only 26% of the power mix — close to the government’s 35% target by 2030.

Also on Wednesday, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said economies in Asia and the Pacific, including the Philippines, should prioritize stabilization over suppressing price signals amid rising energy costs.

“Allowing higher energy prices to pass through, at least in part, can encourage energy conservation, fuel switching and investment in alternative energy sources,” it said in a policy brief.

The multilateral lender said fiscal support should be targeted and time-bound, with priority given to vulnerable households and heavily affected industries.

The ADB also cautioned against aggressive policy tightening, warning that it could worsen growth pressures and heighten financial market volatility.

It said governments might consider demand-side measures such as temperature mandates and incentives for public transport use to curb energy consumption.

In its April Asian Development Outlook, the ADB lowered its 2026 growth forecast for the Philippines to 4.4% from 5.3%.

It also cut its growth projection for Asia and the Pacific to 4.7% from 5.1%, reflecting broader economic headwinds.

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A simple modification to the cells that carry oxygen around our body seems to stop severe bleeds almost immediately. When applied to serious wounds in the livers of rats, the animals formed clots in just 5 seconds and lost very little blood, raising hopes that the approach could one day help people undergoing planned or emergency surgery.

Blood loss kills around 2 million people worldwide each year, with the risk rising with every minute that bleeding continues. In mild cases, blood clots normally form quickly, but more severe incidences can require costly transfusions that are hard to deliver quickly, or the use of bandages that sometimes trigger immune reactions or interfere with healing.

Although red blood cells primarily carry oxygen around the body, they also combine with platelets — cell fragments that stop bleeding — to form a sticky mesh in response to injury, plugging the wound. Red blood cells make up the bulk of this plug, but are inherently fragile, which made Jianyu Li at McGill University in Montreal, Canada, and his colleagues wonder whether they could be made stronger. “We saw and used the elephant in the room,” he says.

First, the researchers took blood from rats and separated out its various cellular components. They then added different chemicals that act like handles: one side randomly attaches to proteins on the surface of the red blood cells, while the other is free to join with a long-chain molecule that links cells together, which the researchers also added to the mix.

Next, the modified cells were returned to the liquid part of the blood, called the plasma, which the team injected into severe liver wounds in rats. These started clotting in less than 5 seconds, compared with 265 seconds in untreated rats. The treated rats also lost just 24 milligrams of blood, compared with nearly 2000 milligrams in the untreated group.

Unlike natural clots, which break down within days, these lasted one to two months, which Li says could give wound-healing molecules more time to act. The team also observed no safety concerns over this time.

“It is exciting work that shows a new design method for cell-based biomaterials for surgical and regenerative applications,” says Hyunwoo Yuk, founder of SanaHeal, a company developing bioadhesive technologies in Boston, Massachusetts.

In the future, the researchers hope that a small sample of a patient’s blood could be collected and modified in less than 30 minutes ahead of a planned surgical procedure. For emergencies, the treatment could be prepared in advance from blood-bank samples and refrigerated for at least a month. However, Jayachandran Kizhakkedathu at the University of British Columbia, Canada, says that existing treatments can be stored for longer. “One challenge could be the shorter shelf life of such cellular materials, unlike synthetic materials,” he says.

Li says his team has applied for a patent and is planning further research.

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In an advisory dated April 27 and released on Tuesday, the CAB adjusted the surcharge for the first 15 days of May from the Level 19 rate implemented for April 16-30.

At Level 18, fuel surcharges range from P593 to P1,734 for domestic flights and from P1,958.44 to P14,561.87 for international flights, depending on distance.

Fuel surcharges are variable fees added to base fares to offset changes in jet fuel costs and are adjusted based on movements in jet fuel prices using the Mean of Platts Singapore benchmark.

The Level 18 surcharge remains among the highest imposed, just two levels below the allowable cap at Level 20.

The highest surcharge so far was Level 19, implemented from April 1 to 15, according to the agency.

Based on the CAB’s fuel surcharge matrix, passengers booking flights for the May 1-15 period will pay P1,958.44 for flights between the Philippines and Taiwan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Brunei. Flights between Manila and Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, and Guam will carry a surcharge of P2,708.56.

For routes between the Philippines and North America, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands, fuel surcharges reach P13,868.44. For flights exceeding 14,000 kilometers from the Philippines, surcharges can go up to P14,561.87.

In April, the CAB shifted from a monthly review of fuel surcharges to a 15-day monitoring cycle to respond more quickly to fuel price movements following the war in the Middle East.

CAB Executive Director Carmelo L. Arcilla said the measure will remain in effect until the situation stabilizes, unless revised or revoked.

The equivalent exchange rate is set at P60 to the dollar for airlines collecting fuel surcharges in foreign currency, the CAB said.

According to monitoring by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), jet fuel prices fell week on week to $179.46 per barrel as of April 24. On a yearly basis, however, jet fuel prices have nearly doubled, rising 99.3%.

Separately, the CAB said that if fuel prices decline further, the surcharge may be adjusted downward under the shortened monitoring period.

Jet fuel is one of the largest components of airline operating expenses, the CAB said, adding that maintaining a stable aviation sector requires supporting the financial sustainability of air carriers.

Cebu Pacific Chief Executive Officer Michael B. Szücs said the industry’s current challenge is not supply constraints, but the sharp increase in jet fuel prices.

According to the CAB, jet fuel prices averaged $208 per barrel from March 10 to April 8, a steep increase from about $89 per barrel in January.

Based on data from the Department of Energy, the country’s average daily jet fuel demand is 5.65 million liters, with available supply estimated to last about 70 days. — Ashley Erika O. Jose

In a policy note, PIDS said high costs and low trust continue to keep a large share of Filipinos unbanked despite growing adoption of digital financial platforms.

Citing data from the World Bank, it said the Philippines made progress in financial inclusion as formal account ownership reached 56% in 2021 and digital payments at 57.4%, exceeding the government’s 50% target.

Despite this, more than half or 51.4% of Filipino adults remain unbanked, trailing regional peers like Singapore and Thailand.

“While AI could help bridge these gaps through better credit assessment and fraud detection, its adoption necessitates safeguards to address data privacy and potential inequality risks,” it said.

The Philippines also lags its Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) peers in AI readiness, scoring 0.50 in the International Monetary Fund’s AI Preparedness Index. Although slightly higher than Vietnam’s 0.48, it is lower compared to Singapore’s 0.80, Thailand’s 0.54, and Indonesia’s 0.52.

“Broader ASEAN indicators place the Philippines in the middle range for AI preparedness, digital readiness, financial inclusion, and digital economy size,” the PIDS said.

“What sets the country apart, however, is the contrast between its very high consumer interest in AI and its relatively weak institutional capacity.”

This gap explains why AI adoption in the financial sector has been gradual, it added, as the capacity to adopt and govern AI systems varies greatly among institutions, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

“Expansion remains uneven, with rural banks and cooperatives facing greater capacity constraints compared to universal and commercial banks,” it said.

During the coronavirus pandemic, cybersecurity emerged as a critical concern across the financial sector as phishing scams increased by 200%.

“This surge has heightened institutions’ caution toward digital and AI technologies, particularly among smaller financial service providers with limited cybersecurity infrastructure,” it said.

“Additionally, regulatory compliance requirements pose disproportionate burdens on smaller institutions that lack dedicated compliance teams and resources.”

FINANCIAL ENGAGEMENT
Account usage also remains limited even as more Filipino adults own formal accounts. Many continue saving and borrowing informally through family (42.8%) and savings clubs (48.4%), PIDS said.

“Despite high mobile phone ownership (96.3%) and internet access (87.4%), only 54.7% made digital payments, with lower rates for bill payments (30.2%) and merchant payments (26.3%).”

This suggests that connectivity alone is not enough to drive financial engagement, it said.

Usage barriers include lack of money (76%), high costs (55%), distance (40%), documentation issues (39%), and low trust (29%), while 34% said that a family member already had an account, pointing to household-level financial decision-making.

Still, PIDS said greater engagement with digital financial platforms significantly increases the likelihood of owning various types of financial accounts and using them for different financial activities, based on its own analysis.

However, AI-driven financial services will remain concentrated among digitally literate, urban, and higher-income groups if financial literacy remains low, it said, as a BSP survey showed that only 2% of Filipinos are able to correctly answer all basic financial literacy questions.

“This low literacy, combined with age-related digital divides, means vulnerable populations (older adults, low-income households, and rural residents) risk being left behind,” it said.

“Experts emphasized that without targeted financial and AI literacy programs, the benefits of AI-driven financial services will remain concentrated among digitally literate, urban, and higher-income groups, potentially widening existing inequalities.”

To address these gaps, PIDS said the government should enhance digital infrastructure, strengthen cybersecurity frameworks, develop AI education roadmaps, align policy frameworks, and reduce regulatory burdens.

Meanwhile, the education sector must integrate financial and AI literacy into school curricula and use AI as a tool to broaden financial education. Industry and private financial institutions should also ensure algorithmic fairness, strengthen security and transparency, expand services to underserved populations, and work with regulators to ensure AI adoption is aligned with national development goals.

The PIDS policy note was authored by Nikka C. Pesa, economist and instructor at the University of Asia and the Pacific; Mary Grace R. Agner, PIDS supervising research specialist; and Rutcher M. Lacaza, supervising legislative staff officer III at the Congressional Policy and Budget Research Department of the House of Representatives. — Justine Irish D. Tabile

ASEAN energy ministers convened virtually on Monday led by Philippine Energy Secretary Sharon S. Garin to discuss the war’s impact on the region.

The meeting was attended by energy ministers and representatives from all Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states, with the support of the ASEAN Secretariat, the ASEAN Center for Energy, and the ASEAN Council on Petroleum and Energy.

Among the topics discussed was the importance of the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Petroleum Security (APSA) as a key regional action to enhance preparedness to potential oil and gas supply disruptions.

APSA is a pact to enhance petroleum security among ASEAN member states and minimize exposure to an emergency situation by establishing a petroleum-sharing scheme.

“We recalled that APSA modernizes ASEAN’s petroleum security arrangements by providing a voluntary and coordinated framework for emergency response, information sharing, and mutual assistance during supply crises,” the energy ministers said in a statement on Tuesday.

“In this regard, we urged the expeditious completion of national processes towards its ratification.”

Following the start of the war on Feb. 28, Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints that handles a significant share of global crude shipments. This has left net oil importers like the Philippines and other Southeast Asian economies to grapple with supply and price shocks.

The Philippines relies heavily on Middle East crude, which accounts for roughly 98% of its imports.

“We emphasized that disruptions in key energy transit routes could have far-reaching implications on global oil supply chains, especially for ASEAN as a net energy-importing region,” the ministers said.

They added that the issue highlights the need to maintain secure and open sea lanes, as well as continuous transit of passage of vessels and aircraft in straits used for international navigation.

“We noted that ASEAN’s growing energy demand may increase exposure to such shocks and underscored that stable, accessible, reliable, and affordable energy supply remains fundamental to regional energy security.”

The ASEAN energy ministers have also committed to advancing the implementation of the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation 2026-2030, including its goal of reducing energy by 40%, attaining 30% renewable energy share in total energy supply and 45% in installed power capacity.

To reduce dependence on imported fossil fuel, they highlighted the need for supply diversification — including clean and renewable energy transition — broadening sources of crude oil and refined products, and strengthening “intra-ASEAN trade.”

“We further emphasized the need to accelerate biodiesel and bioethanol blending, promote the adoption of electric vehicles and electric cooking, enhance renewable energy deployment, and explore the role of emerging technologies, including civilian nuclear energy, in accordance with international safety standards,” the ministers said.

Aside from supply aspirations, they also stressed the critical role of demand-side and energy efficiency measures in mitigating the immediate impacts of oil supply shocks and enhancing long-term sustainability.

Meanwhile, the regional bloc’s energy chiefs urged continued efforts to advance the cross-border power trading under the ASEAN Power Grid (APG) that aims to link up the power systems of its member countries by 2045.

“We look forward to more cross-border electricity trading projects coming to fruition in the next few years to realize the APG.”

They likewise underscored the importance of the Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline in expanding liquefied natural gas infrastructure and supply chains. The project aims to establish interconnecting arrangements of electricity and natural gas in ASEAN. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera

HEADLINE INFLATION could surge past 8% this year if the Middle East conflict remains unresolved, which could push the Monetary Board to hike policy rates to up to 6%, the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corp. Ltd. (HSBC) said.

“We forecast full-year inflation to be 6.3%, where the peak will be in the fourth quarter at 8.1%, driven not mostly by energy but by food,” HSBC Senior ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Economist Aris D. Dacanay said at a briefing on Tuesday.

This forecast assumes an adverse scenario where the conflict persists up until the end of June or early July this year.

Next year, HSBC expects inflation to average 4.5% under the same scenario.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) expects the consumer price index (CPI) to average 6.3% this year and 4.3% in 2027, it said last week. Both are above its 2%-4% tolerance band.

In March, inflation quickened to a two-year high of 4.1%, bringing the three-month average to 2.8%. The BSP sees the CPI remaining above 5% for the rest of the year.

With the inflation outlook deteriorating due to the war, the central bank’s policy-setting Monetary Board last week raised the target reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5%.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said more hikes are possible as they want to temper spiraling consumer prices.

“I think if things remain at status quo, and again, the conflict persists up until June or July, I think the BSP, given its mandate of price stability, can raise rates to up to 6%,” Mr. Dacanay said.

This would mean that the tightening cycle could extend to next year as the Monetary Board has only four more policy meetings scheduled for the rest of the year and they only expect the BSP to raise rates by 25 bps at a time, with a jumbo 50-bp cut unlikely unless there is a surprise shock.

“We have to understand that the Strait of Hormuz is not only putting a cap on the global supply of energy; if you have oil, you also have fertilizer… and urea prices have already doubled since then,” Mr. Dacanay said.

A third of seaborne-traded fertilizer in the world goes through the Strait of Hormuz.

“We are talking about a global shortage of fertilizer, which will affect not the food supply now, but the yields of the food supply maybe perhaps in three or six months’ time,” he said.

“It is the second wave of inflation that we need to anticipate. I do have to say though that the Philippines is the most vulnerable here.”

The Philippines is the largest net importer of food as a percent of gross domestic product (GDP), and Filipinos spend a big part of their incomes on food. At the minimum, HSBC projects food inflation will be at 8%, Mr. Dacanay said.

Faster inflation will also threaten domestic consumption, a key economic growth driver.

He cited the BSP’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey, which showed that Filipinos have started tightening their belts, even for essentials.

“They are cutting back spending altogether, and the percent of households who said that they saved during the current quarter rose to around 56-57%, which is higher than pre-pandemic levels,” he said.

“A lot of consumers… are now trying to save up more to be able to insure themselves from the uncertainties ahead. And this, I think, is a leading indicator that consumption will be on a weaker footing this year and the next.”

HSBC forecasts the Philippine economy to grow by less than 3.4% this year under the adverse scenario, well below the government’s 5%-6% target. Next year, it expects growth to rebound to 4.1%, still below the 5.5%-6.5% goal.

INTERVENTIONS
Mr. Dacanay said the government should implement measures to reduce the war’s impact on consumer costs, particularly the main staple, rice.

Rice prices continued to jump in March, bringing inflation for the staple grain to 3.6% from -3.4% in February. This was the first time since December 2024 that rice inflation settled in the positive territory or when it stood at 0.8%.

“The fertilizer shock has not hit the Philippines yet, but as we speak, a kilogram of rice is at P47. That is the highest, or it matches the highest in history,” he said.

“I do think certainty in rice policy can help temper prices in the retail rice market. And that would be a huge, huge inflation relief for the 113 million Filipino consumers.”

In particular, he said the government should look at lowering the tariffs on rice, as bringing rice prices back to P40 can shave off 50-75 bps from HSBC’s rate hike forecasts and shave off 1.5 percentage points from inflation.

“I also think that there’s a lot of room that can be managed when it comes to the restaurant industry. Right now, at 4.1%, one of the highest drivers of inflation is the restaurant business,” he said.

Rising fuel prices and dwindling reserves have pushed the government to place the country under a one-year state of energy emergency and suspend levies on kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas.

Mr. Dacanay added that the government can also extend the suspension on excise and value-added taxes (VAT) on diesel and gasoline.

“I think there is room to suspend excise taxes and even VAT if and only if there are clear conditions of the policy returning eventually,” he said.

“I think (the suspension of) excise taxes and VAT can deliver relief and some extent of disinflation, but we need to consider the tradeoffs.”

THE PESO tumbled to a new all-time low on Tuesday, breaching the P61 mark versus the dollar for the first time in history, on heightened inflation worries as global oil prices surged again after peace talks between the United States and Iran hit a deadlock.

The currency closed at P61.30 a dollar, plunging by 59 centavos from Monday’s P60.71 finish, according to Bankers Association of the Philippines data posted on its website.

This surpassed the previous all-time-low close of P60.748 logged on March 31. This is now also the worst level ever hit by the peso, beating the P60.84 recorded on March 30.

Year to date, the peso has weakened by P2.51 or 4.09% from its P58.79 finish on Dec. 29, 2025.

Tuesday’s drop was also its biggest one-day decline in over seven months or since it sank by 63.9 centavos on Sept. 25, 2025.

The peso opened Tuesday’s trading session weaker at P60.80 against the greenback. Its intraday best was at P60.77, while its worst showing was its closing level of P61.30.

Dollars traded jumped to $1.75 billion from $1.41 billion in the previous session.

The peso’s weakness continued to be driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iran conflict, which has pushed up global oil prices, HSBC Senior ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Economist Aris D. Dacanay said at a media briefing on Tuesday.

“I don’t think it’s peso-driven. I think it’s dollar-driven. And you could see that with the depreciation across all other currencies.”

High demand for dollars among importers likely also led to Tuesday’s drop, Robert Dan J. Roces, an economist at SM Investments Corp., said in a Viber message.

“The move above P61 does not mean the BSP (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) hike failed. It helped, but stronger forces are at work. US rates are still high, the dollar is strong, and money is moving out of emerging markets,” he said.

“The market is looking at where rates are headed, not just the last move, and may still be seeing a narrow gap with the US. The peso’s weakness is driven more by global factors, and the hike likely slowed the drop rather than reversed it.”

On Tuesday, Brent crude oil surged 2.7% to $111.20 a barrel, a three-week high, while US oil climbed 2.9% to $99.10, Reuters reported.

The US was reviewing Tehran’s latest proposal to resolve the war, even as a US official said President Donald J. Trump was unhappy with the plan as it did not address Iran’s nuclear program.

That leaves the two-month-long conflict at an impasse with energy and other supplies through the critical Strait of Hormuz still mainly shut.

The Philippines is a net oil importer, sourcing the bulk of its supply from the Middle East and making it extremely vulnerable to global price shocks.

Higher fuel costs due to the ongoing war have threatened the domestic inflation outlook, prompting the BSP’s Monetary Board to hike benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points last week. This was the first increase in over two years.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. also left the door open to further tightening via “a succession of modest rate hikes” as they try to quell spiraling prices.

This, as the central bank now expects headline inflation to exceed its 2%-4% tolerance band until next year. It raised inflation forecasts to 6.3% for 2026 and 4.3% for 2027 from 5.1% and 3.8% previously.

Inflation already breached the target in March, hitting a two-year high of 4.1% and bringing the three-month average to 2.8%.

The peso’s depreciation past the P61 mark “keeps imported inflation risks alive — fuel, food, and power costs rise — so the BSP’s hawkish bias stays intact and rate cuts are harder to justify,” Reyes Tacandong & Co. Senior Adviser Jonathan L. Ravelas said in a Viber message.

“From a markets perspective, fresh record lows hurt sentiment and raise risk premiums, while growth takes a near-term hit as higher inflation squeezes consumers and tight financial conditions curb investment.”

Meanwhile, Mr. Dacanay said the peso’s inflation pass-through may not be that strong yet at the present level as this depreciation was mostly expected, even before the Iran war broke out.

“So, all the prices that we see right now have already priced in the peso to reach P61 a dollar… So, right now, I don’t think there’s a huge inflationary effect, except for those that follow it quite closely, such as fuel and electricity.”

The BSP has said that it only intervenes in the foreign exchange market to temper sharp swings that could stoke inflation. Last week, Mr. Remolona said a 50-centavo move in one day is “a bit large.”

A trader said the peso may continue its slide if no resolution is reached between the US and Iran, adding that the local unit could trade between P61 and P61.50 a dollar on Wednesday.

“There is upside, but it hinges on a clear Federal Reserve pivot, stable oil prices, and a return of portfolio flows,” Mr. Ravelas said.

“Until then, expect continued volatility and mild depreciation rather than a sustained peso rebound.”

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Gamblers are increasingly placing bets on the number of people infected with measles in the US. Since January alone, nearly $9 million dollars have been bet on future cases of the disease on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket – and there is some evidence that the predictions are accurate enough to be useful for modelling its spread.

Prediction markets involve buying and selling shares related to an outcome. Each market offers a question about future events and the option to bet “yes” or “no”, with the cost of a bet determined by the way others have bet.

For example, if 86 per cent of wagers on a given future event are “yes” bets, the cost of a “yes” share is 86 cents. If that event does in fact occur, successful gamblers receive $1 for every share they have bought, with the unsuccessful gamblers – who lose their money – footing the bill for the winnings.

The idea of prediction markets emerged from scientific research. In 1988, three economists at the University of Iowa – Robert Forsythe, George Neumann and Forrest Nelson – were puzzling out a way to forecast federal elections in the US and developed the idea of creating a market. These markets allowed the researchers and their students to wager small amounts of money predicting the outcome of the elections.

The market’s forecasts proved pretty accurate, and in 2003, Philip Polgreen – an infectious disease researcher also at the University of Iowa – asked the economists to incorporate diseases into the market. These markets were “in the spirit of education and public good”, says Polgreen.

But in recent years, prediction markets have turned commercial through companies including Kalshi and Polymarket. These companies are legal in the United States and are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, but they face growing backlash from federal and state governments.

For instance, prediction markets have come under fire for offering bets on the Iranian and Ukraine wars, which critics consider immoral. Then in February, a trader going by the pseudonym Magamyman won $553,000 on Polymarket by correctly predicting when Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be removed from power. Khamenei was killed on 28 February 2026. The correct prediction led some members of the US Congress to wonder whether people with insider information were monetising state secrets.

Perhaps because measles cases and outbreaks have been rising across the US, there is also now a betting market in the disease. The ethics of making such bets are murky, but there may be a surprising silver lining to the practice. Spencer J. Fox at Northern Arizona University, who forecasts covid-19, influenza and the respiratory virus RSV, thinks measles prediction markets may turn out to be a promising source of data.

For instance, in June 2025, the prediction markets favoured an outcome in which there would be around 2000 cases of measles by the end of the year. There were actually 2288. “I’ve seen many worse forecasts from our models,” says Fox.

To predict diseases, epidemiologists use multiple data streams, including vaccination rates and genomic and climate data. “Everyone is looking for an edge for forecasting infectious diseases, and we’re constantly on the lookout for new data streams,” says Fox – although measles is a disease that isn’t typically covered by scientific forecasting because the disease is “very probabilistic”, says Fox.

Cognitive scientist Emile Servan-Schreiber, CEO of Hypermind, a prediction market company, thinks he knows why the measles predictions are so accurate. He says they harness the “wisdom of crowds”, and that “amateurs…bring cognitive diversity that replaces what they lack in in expertise”.

Even if this is true, however, it doesn’t mean prediction markets can simply replace epidemiologists’ scientific models, says Fox. For instance, prediction markets don’t incorporate as many distinct forecasts as scientific models, or offer as much granularity in terms of possible future outcomes. “You would have to make 1000s of bets a week for all of the different forecasts that we’re making,” Fox says.

He also says only experts can predict rare events. “If we don’t invest in the expertise for forecasting infectious diseases now, we’re going to be caught flat footed for the next covid-19.”

Kalshi and Polymarket did not respond to New Scientist‘s request for comment.

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KoRn broke out their new track ‘Reward The Scars’ live for the first time to a 50,000-strong crowd at Sick New World at the weekend. Check out footage below.

The American nu-metal icons surprise released the song last week (Friday April 24), marking their first new music in four years and written for the Diablo IV video game expansion, Lord Of Hatred. They’ve since released the gory animated video for the track too.

Jonathan Davis and co. performed the single for the first time at their huge headline slot at Sick New World festival, which took place in Las Vegas on Saturday (April 25). They debuted the single midway through their 17-song setlist, having already opened with fan favourites including ‘Blind’, ‘Twist’ and ‘Got The Life’.

“I know it’s been a long-ass day, but it feels so good to be back playing for y’all,” the frontman told the crowd before launching into the new song.

“We’ve been out touring shit a little bit, but we’ve been stuck in a fucking studio for five years,” he added. “We’ve been working hard. We had some good shit. We got rid of that, and then we made some badass shit. Would you guys like to hear that song? It just came out.”

From there the band went into the ferocious track, which is centred around thunderous bass and guitar riffs and sees Davis lead into the anthemic chorus: “Help me free the ones I saved/ And I can walk the path that’s laid/ Break me, take me all the way soul betrayed”.

The track is produced by Nick Raskulinecz, who started working with the group on their 12th album ‘The Serenity Of Suffering’, which dropped in 2016.

It arrived following guitarist Brian ‘Head’ Welch teasing new music in an interview with Loudwire at the start of the year, saying that while they were mainly focused on playing live, they did have some announcements up their sleeves for 2026.

“We’re focusing right now on our live show,” he said. “It feels like we don’t even need a new album. Everything’s just going so well, but that’s not to say we’re not going to find some time to go in again.”

“I feel like it’s not [a] priority right now [but] there could be a couple of surprises this year,” he added.

Before then, Welch said in 2024 that the band were well underway with their first new album since 2022’s ‘Requiem’, but confirmed that it wouldn’t be arriving anytime soon as they were “still working” on it.

Their slot at Sick New World – where they topped the bill alongside System Of A Down and Bring Me The Horizon – comes ahead of the nu-metal giants touring across South America next month, and heading over to Europe for more shows in October.

UK tour dates kick off in Leeds on October 26, and other dates lined-up include slots in Birmingham, Newcastle, Manchester, Dublin and London. Support will come from Architects and Youth Code, and you can find any remaining tickets here.

‘Requiem’ was given a four-star review from NME, which described it as “adding a tentative touch of hope to the band’s discography”.

It read: “2019’s ‘The Nothing’ found frontman Jonathan Davis crushed by grief. The follow-up adds a tentative touch of hope to the band’s discography. It would be a push to call this Korn’s first ‘happy’ album. More accurately, ‘Requiem’ has brought something new to a discography that, until now, has been an exploration of human suffering. It’s led to the band’s most nuanced record to date.”

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China’s state planner on Monday called for Meta to unwind its $2 billion acquisition of Manus, a Singaporean artificial intelligence startup with Chinese roots.

The decision to prohibit foreign investment in Manus was made in accordance with laws and regulations, the National Development and Reform Commission said in a brief statement. It added that it has asked the parties involved to withdraw the acquisition transaction.

A Meta spokesperson said that the transaction “complied fully with applicable law.”

“We anticipate an appropriate resolution to the inquiry,” the spokesperson added. Shares of Meta closed 0.53% higher on Monday.

The deal had attracted scrutiny from both China and Washington, as lawmakers in the U.S. have prohibited American investors from backing Chinese AI companies directly. Meanwhile, Beijing has increased efforts to discourage Chinese AI founders from moving business offshore.

The Chinese government’s intervention in the transaction drew alarm among tech founders and venture capitalists in the country who were hoping to take advantage of the so-called Singapore-washing model, where companies relocate from China to the city-state to avoid scrutiny from Beijing and Washington.

Manus was founded in China before relocating to Singapore. The company develops general-purpose AI agents and launched its first general AI agent in March last year, which can execute complex tasks such as market research, coding and data analysis. The release saw the startup lauded as the next DeepSeek.

Manus said it had passed $100 million in annual recurring revenue, or ARR, in December, eight months on from launching a product, which it claimed made it the fastest startup in the world at the time to hit the milestone from $0.

The company raised $75 million in a round led by U.S. VC Benchmark in April last year.

Beijing’s surprise intervention on Meta’s Manus rattles tech founders, VCs eyeing ‘China shedding’ 

When Meta announced the deal late last year, the tech giant said it would look to accelerate artificial intelligence innovation for businesses and integrate advanced automation into its consumer and enterprise products, including its Meta AI assistant.

But in January, China’s Ministry of Commerce said it would conduct an assessment and investigation into how the acquisition complied with laws and regulations concerning export controls, technology import and export, and overseas investment.

A Meta spokesperson told CNBC that the transaction “complied fully with applicable law,” and that it anticipated “an appropriate resolution to the inquiry.”

When asked about China’s move to block Meta’s acquisition of Manus, APEC Senior Officials Meeting Chairman Chen Xu told reporters that it is “important that all parties act in a spirit of mutual benefit.”

While Chen said he did not know the specifics of the issue, he said that “if such an issue can be handled properly, it can help facilitate more substantive discussions in APEC.” That’s according to an official English translation.

— CNBC’s Anniek Bao and Dylan Butts contributed to this story.

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ABOITIZ InfraCapital, Inc. (AIC), the infrastructure arm of the Aboitiz group, is raising its capital expenditure (capex) to P8.8 billion this year from P4.1 billion in 2025 to fund expansion across its airports, water, and telecommunications tower businesses.

“This will support growth and operational initiatives across our airports, water and Unity Digital Infrastructure, Inc.,” Aboitiz InfraCapital President and Chief Executive Officer Cosette V. Canilao said during Aboitiz Equity Ventures, Inc.’s (AEV) annual stockholders meeting on Monday.

Aboitiz InfraCapital is the infrastructure arm of listed conglomerate Aboitiz Equity Ventures, Inc., which also has interests in power, banking, food, infrastructure and artificial intelligence.

In a media release, AEV said it is earmarking P8.8 billion for infrastructure, water, and airports investments this year.

“While there are external headwinds, we expect the airport platform to remain a key contributor to growth for AIC this year,” Ms. Canilao said.

Aboitiz InfraCapital operates three of the country’s seven privatized airports: Mactan-Cebu International Airport, Laguindingan International Airport and Bohol-Panglao International Airport.

Ms. Canilao said airport operations continue to recover, driven by improving passenger traffic, strong operating performance and increasing commercial activity, despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

She said Mactan-Cebu International Airport recorded its highest monthly passenger traffic in January this year, with first-quarter traffic exceeding expectations.

“The first quarter traffic was ahead of expectations. That said, we are closely monitoring the Middle East situation. If the conflict persists and fuel prices remain elevated, we may see some impact from early June onward,” Ms. Canilao said.

She added that any prolonged escalation in the Middle East could lead to higher airfares, route adjustments and reduced flight frequencies.

While some airlines have reduced flight frequencies, Dubai-based Emirates has resumed its daily Cebu service, helping offset the impact, she said.

Aboitiz InfraCapital is also exploring opportunities to expand its airport portfolio.

“We’re always on the lookout for new opportunities to add to our portfolio of airports where we can add more value. So, we are planning, but we know that there are very limited airports that might go to market. We are hoping that the government will also look at the other airports,” Ms. Canilao said.

Separately, the company said it is working to finalize a strategic partnership with Global Infrastructure Partners, a US-based infrastructure fund manager owned by BlackRock, Inc.

Aboitiz Equity Ventures earlier said the deal involves the acquisition of a 40% stake in Aboitiz InfraCapital by Global Infrastructure Partners. Once completed, the company expects to leverage the fund’s international network.

Global Infrastructure Partners manages more than $183 billion in infrastructure assets across sectors such as energy, transport, digital infrastructure and water, and holds stakes in major assets including London’s Gatwick Airport and Australia’s Port of Melbourne.

“The specific projects are still under discussion and will be firmed up following upcoming workshops and project identification activities with the PPP Center,” APECO President and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Gil G. Taway IV told BusinessWorld.

“But priority infrastructure projects such as the Casiguran International New Port and the Casiguran International Airport are among those being considered for PPP structuring,” he added.

APECO and the PPP Center held a meeting last week to explore areas of support through capacity building and technical assistance for PPP project development, particularly in market sounding and investment promotion.

“The collaboration aims to support APECO in advancing its PPP initiatives across the project lifecycle that will contribute to the development of strategic infrastructure within the economic zone,” the PPP Center said in a statement last week.

After the meeting, the parties explored the possibility of formalizing the PPP Center’s technical assistance through a memorandum of agreement (MoA).

“APECO and the PPP Center are currently in the process of drafting the MoA, which is targeted to be signed by the third week of May,” said Mr. Taway.

“This will open new opportunities for private sector participation in building a dynamic, future-ready economic zone in Casiguran,” he added.

Under the MoA, the center will assist APECO in various areas, including identifying a pipeline of priority projects by yearend.

“The PPP Center is committed to helping APECO achieve its objective to build economically viable and quality PPP projects in their jurisdiction,” PPP Center Executive Director Rizza Blanco-Latorre said in a statement.

She said that the PPP projects help bring development to the area and open more opportunities for international trade by improving infrastructure and attracting foreign investments. 

The PPP Center is also engaging other government agencies to extend technical assistance that will support effective development, procurement and implementation of PPP projects in the country.

As of April 10, the PPP Center said that there are 251 projects with an estimated project cost of P3.3 trillion in the pipeline.

Of these, 167 projects are going to be implemented by the National Government while the remaining 84 projects are going to be implemented by local government units.

INVESTMENT HUB
Separately, APECO said it is exploring the Philippine Pharmaceutical Procurement, Inc.’s (PPPI) establishment of a pharmaceutical investment hub in Casiguran.

The PPPI identified research and development (R&D), clinical trials, and cold chain logistics and warehousing among the potential activities that could be hosted inside the proposed hub.

Mr. Taway said APECO is positioning the ecozone to host high-value industries that require reliable infrastructure, streamlined regulation, and long-term investment support.

“We are building APECO as a complete, investment-ready ecosystem. For industries like pharmaceuticals that demand stability, efficiency, and scale, our ecozone provides the environment where they can operate and grow with confidence,” he said.

APECO has identified 496 hectares for the proposed pharmaceutical hub out of the 12,923 hectares under its management.

“APECO’s ongoing efforts to strengthen power supply, water access, and logistics connectivity are critical in meeting the requirements of pharmaceutical locators, particularly in R&D, cold chain storage, and distribution,” he added.

If realized, PPPI President and CEO Maria Blanca Kim Bernardo-Lokin said that the initiative could help position the Philippines as a competitive hub for global pharmaceutical firms.

“This collaboration with APECO not only strengthens our role in the global pharma value chain but also directly supports the administration’s priority of improving access to affordable, quality healthcare for all Filipinos,” she was quoted as saying.

Ms. Bernardo-Lokin said that the PPPI has also partnered with Clark International Airport Corp. and the Bases Conversion and Development Authority for the establishment of other pharma hubs.

“APECO will be our third partner and right now, we are meeting with Cagayan Economic Zone Authority,” she added. — Justine Irish D. Tabile

“For May, we have yet to see possible yellow alerts,” Energy Undersecretary Rowena Cristina L. Guevara said in a virtual briefing on Monday.

However, Ms. Guevara said that grid alerts could still be raised in the event of a forced outage, particularly at coal-fired power plants, which typically encounter issues during the summer months.

“But if we are just to base it on the dependable capacity and the forecasted demand, supposedly we don’t have any yellow alerts,” she said.

A yellow alert is issued when the operating margin is insufficient to meet the transmission grid’s contingency requirement.

On April 16, the Luzon grid recorded its first yellow alert this year following the outage of a major gas-fired power plant and some hydropower plants.

A yellow alert was also raised over the Visayas grid due to the lack of power imported from Luzon.

Fears that the Iran war-driven oil crisis could push up electricity prices have led business groups and a senior government official to call for the lifting of the moratorium on new coal projects.

Despite expressing openness to the proposal last week, Energy Secretary Sharon S. Garin said the moratorium on new coal projects will remain in place.

“The moratorium is staying. There’s no lifting of the moratorium. What the DoE is doing is to have them produce more electricity,” she said.

Ms. Garin said coal-fired power projects with permits secured before 2019 may still proceed or be completed.

In 2020, the DoE issued a moratorium on the development of new coal-fired power plants, except for those coal-fired power projects falling under the conditions for non-coverage. The move was aimed at helping the country reduce carbon emissions and hasten the shift to clean energy.

Ms. Garin said the DoE is also assessing coal-fired plants for possible retirement.

“What we are also doing is checking all our coal power plants to determine which ones already need to be retired, because many of them — even if they are cheap — end up costing more for our consumers if they keep breaking down,” Ms. Garin said.

Coal remains the dominant source in the country’s power mix, accounting for more than 60% of electricity generation, followed by renewables and gas. 

While the country is trying to move away from fossil fuels and transition to clean energy, Ms. Garin previously said the department plans to temporarily increase coal-fired generation amid energy pressures. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera

KAYLA JOY T. AGANA had already mapped out the coming school year in her head — drop-offs before work, a steady weekly rhythm and a predictable calendar she could build her routine around.

But that plan began to unravel when she heard about the government’s proposal to shift to a three-term school calendar.

“It feels like an added burden for the parents because this is not just about the school schedule; it will directly affect us too,” said Ms. Agana, a 26-year-old government employee preparing to enroll her child in Grade 1 for the 2026-2027 academic year.

Like many working parents, she relies on consistency to manage both her job and childcare.

The prospect of longer breaks between terms, and the uncertainty of how these will be structured, has raised questions. “If it happens, I will have to figure out who will take care of my child during the breaks,” she said.

Her concerns come as the government moves forward with a major shift in the basic education calendar.

Last month, the Economy and Development Council approved the Department of Education’s (DepEd) proposal to adopt a trimester system beginning in the 2026-2027 school year.

The system will divide the academic year into three terms instead of the four-quarter system, with built-in breaks meant for assessment, remediation, and teacher training.

Under the setup, the first term will begin in June and run for 69 days, followed by a mix of instructional time and end-of-term activities. Subsequent terms will follow similar patterns, with dedicated periods for academic recovery and co-curricular work. The reform is meant to address persistent disruptions — particularly from typhoons — that have repeatedly cut into classroom time.

But for parents like Ms. Agana, the shift is less about pedagogy and more about daily life. “The plan was simple, it is to follow a stable and predictable school schedule,” she said. “Now, with the shift to a trimester system, it feels like we have to adjust all over again.”

Her skepticism is also shaped by experience. As part of the first batch to undergo the K-12 program, she recalls a system that felt rushed and, in her view, poorly implemented.

“It feels like I spent additional years but I did not really get to apply what I learned,” she said. “So, hearing about another big change makes me worried.”

Education stakeholders acknowledge that the reform carries both promise and risk.

Christopher “Happy” A. Tan, country head of PHINMA Education Philippines, said the trimester system could help preserve learning continuity in a country frequently hit by disruptions.

However, he stressed that success would depend heavily on how the system is implemented on the ground.

“DepEd’s new trimester calendar seeks to improve learning continuity amid repeated class disruptions,” he said in an e-mailed reply to questions. “But to make this work for all students — especially those from low-income backgrounds — we suggest close attention to how learning time is actually experienced on the ground.”

He noted that while the calendar includes enrichment or recovery periods, these could reduce total instructional time if not used effectively.

This makes real-time interventions during the term even more critical, particularly for students who may fall behind due to absences or other challenges.

‘NOT A SYSTEM REFORM’
The Philippine Business for Education (PBEd) said the reform is a step in the right direction — but not a complete solution.

“The move to a three-term school year is a practical step to better protect instructional time and allow for more structured learning and remediation,” PBEd Executive Director Hanibal E. Camua said via Viber. “However, it remains a calendar reform — not a system reform.”

He said improvements in curriculum delivery, assessment systems, and school-level execution should accompany the change.

Without these, the trimester calendar risks becoming a structural adjustment with limited impact on actual learning outcomes.

Teachers, meanwhile, are bracing for the transition.

Jessica P. Paz, a Grade 5 teacher with more than three decades of experience in a public school in Quezon province, said educators are concerned about the additional workload the system might bring.

“Teachers are worried because we think more work will be added to our responsibilities,” she said in Filipino.

She also expressed concern about how students — particularly those in lower-performing sections — would cope with a potentially more compressed pace of lessons under the trimester system.

“We fear that students will have an even harder time understanding lessons because the trimester system may compress the teaching pace, especially for those in lower sections,” she added.

Ms. Paz wants the government to provide sufficient training and reduce nonteaching tasks to help educators adapt.

“I hope that they will reduce our paperwork and give us more time to adjust,” she said, pointing to existing reporting requirements that already consume significant time.

Despite these concerns, some sectors see potential long-term benefits.

The IT and Business Process Association of the Philippines said the shift reflects efforts to strengthen learning continuity and improve workforce readiness.

“Talent development remains a priority for the IT-BPM (Information Technology and Business Process Management) industry, and more consistent instructional time can help strengthen the foundational and digital skills needed for the workforce,” it said in an e-mailed reply to questions.

Still, the consensus among educators and analysts is clear: the success of the trimester system will hinge not on the calendar itself, but on execution.

Clear learning targets, timely monitoring of student progress and effective remediation mechanisms are needed to ensure that no student is left behind, Mr. Camua said.

For Ms. Agana, however, those broader goals feel distant compared with the immediate realities she faces as a parent.

“All we want is something stable,” she said. “Everything else in our lives depends on that.”

MOTORISTS can expect another round of rollbacks this week, with diesel and kerosene prices set to decline for a third straight week.

The Department of Energy (DoE) said diesel prices should go down by at least P12.94 per liter, starting April 28.

“The estimated pump price range for diesel is from P75.93 to P101.96,” Energy Secretary Sharon S. Garin told reporters at a media briefing.

The DoE chief said fuel retailers should cut kerosene prices by at least P15.71 per liter.   

On the other hand, gasoline prices are expected to go up by as much as P0.53 per liter.

“This is being calculated based on specific accounting procedures. It is not just based on market behavior or expectations, but on what happened last week,” Ms. Garin said.

Unioil Petroleum Philippines, Inc. said it will implement the government-mandated price adjustments.

Ms. Garin warned that oil companies are mandated to comply with the price adjustment limits set by the government. She noted that if an oil firm does not follow the DoE advisory, then cases will be filed.

An industry source earlier said that the markets have remained highly event-driven, with shipping interruption and resulting disruption in supply flows triggering the volatility in prices.

The US-Israel war on Iran, which began on Feb. 28, has disrupted global oil supplies and drove crude oil prices up by around 50%.

RUSSIAN OIL
Meanwhile, the US has granted a one-month extension to the Philippines allowing it to purchase oil from Russia, Energy Undersecretary Alessandro O. Sales said.

“There’s a new waiver effective from April 17 to May 16… So, there is an existing waiver period again,” Mr. Sales said at the same press briefing.

Mr. Sales said that the one-month extension does not only apply to the Philippines, but other countries as well.

The Philippines had earlier asked the US to extend a waiver to purchase Russian oil after it expired on April 11,

The Philippines is a net importer of crude oil and sources most of its supply from the Middle East, the world’s biggest oil-producing region.

Seeking to diversify its energy sources, the Philippines has tapped Russian oil when the US temporarily lifted sanctions on imports for one month.

Last month, the country’s sole refiner, Petron, acquired 2.48 million barrels of Russian crude oil as “an extraordinary emergency measure” to source additional supply.

To boost oil buffer, the government has also moved to procure barrels of diesel since March from different countries through state-run Philippine National Oil Co.

Following the full delivery of four shipments of diesel, the Philippines has so far imported 1.12 million barrels.

“As the Middle East conflict continues, our priority is to ensure that the Philippines remains prepared, adequately supplied, and able to respond swiftly to developments that may affect fuel availability and market stability,” Ms. Garin said.

As of April 24, the Philippines’ fuel inventory could last for 54 days, increasing from the 52 days recorded last week.

The average inventory for gasoline is 53.91 days, while diesel has an average inventory of 54.61 days. Kerosene has an average inventory of 168.74 days, 70.83 days for jet fuel, 67.55 days for fuel oil, and 38.44 days for liquefied petroleum gas.

“The number of days didn’t decrease because the supply is being replenished continuously, even as we consume 34 million liters of diesel every day,” Ms. Garin said in Filipino.

Coral reefs on a chain of islands off Western Australia were almost untouched by a prolonged heatwave that devastated corals in other regions in early 2025. Researchers hope that learning the secret of extreme heat tolerance in these corals will help to protect reefs across the globe, which are in danger of being wiped out by global warming.

Kate Quigley at the University of Western Australia in Perth and her colleagues dived at 11 sites across the Houtman Abrolhos archipelago in July 2025.

Further north at the Ningaloo Reef, up to 60 per cent of corals died during the same heatwave. This was a story repeated at reefs around the world, with marine heatwaves in 2025 killing vast swathes of coral globally.

But at Houtman Abrolhos, apart from a few tiny patches, there weren’t even any signs of stress, such as fluorescing coral. “We expected to see mass bleaching with lots of white colonies, and likely mortality of reefs, given we did surveys after many months of marine heatwave. We did not see this,” says Quigley.

Prolonged heat stress generally leads to coral bleaching, when corals expel the symbiotic algae that live in their tissues, which provide most of their food.

Researchers measure the heat stress faced by corals in degree heating weeks (DHW), which accounts for how long a heatwave endures and how high temperatures reach.

Over 4 °C-weeks, scientists expect to see significant bleaching and above 8 °C-weeks, the situation becomes dire. “Values of around 8 °C-weeks are generally considered catastrophic and are often associated with widespread bleaching and mortality,” says Quigley.

The waters around the Houtman Abrolhos Islands hit 4 °C-weeks in early February 2025 and 8 °C-weeks by early March, but the temperatures kept rising and by mid-April the corals had experienced 22 °C-weeks of heat stress.

Quigley and her colleagues were most surprised to find that the full array of coral species at the reef all seemed immune to what had proved disastrous elsewhere.

To try to determine just how heat-tolerant the coral at the Houtman Abrolhos Islands actually are, the scientists brought colonies from several species back to the lab and subjected them to prolonged high temperatures.

At 8 °C-weeks, compared with currently accepted thresholds, survival rates at the Houtman Abrolhos islands were twice as high and bleaching resistance was nearly four times higher. There was still nearly 100 per cent survival at around 16 °C-weeks.

While the upper limit of the tolerance of corals there is still unclear, it is “clearly substantial and higher than what has been documented at other reef locations studied so far around the world”, says Quigley.

The next step for the researchers is to work out exactly how the corals are achieving this survival feat.

Because resistance was across many species, Quigley says it is possibly the algal symbionts that are giving the Houtman Abrolhos island corals their superpower.

“I think this location has a particular set of environmental factors that has driven the evolution of heat tolerance generally for the species that live there,” she says. Because of this, such reefs should be given the highest level of protection, and other similar high-tolerance sites should also be identified, she says.

Petra Lundgren at the Great Barrier Reef Foundation says such reefs serve as “natural laboratories for understanding heat tolerance”.

“They may also hold the key to advancing selective breeding and other interventions aimed at enhancing thermal resilience in conservation aquaculture and coral restoration,” says Lundgren.

While focusing on curbing global carbon emissions remains the most critical action to save these precious ecosystems, “providing adaptive assistance by, for example, seeding reefs with more heat-tolerant corals will give coral reefs their best chance at adapting to future heat stress events,” she says.

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